I think this tournament is okay from a structural outlook as it's unique and different, but it's hard to get overly bullish when betting markets I typically want to avoid from an exposure standpoint.
Perhaps that means our best chance to find value will come via the DFS space, something I alluded to in the Links & Locks podcast. That being said, let's look at four-ball on Saturday and see if we can find anything that sticks out.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
DraftKings $10,000+
We have weird pricing up top as DraftKings makes Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell the top team on the slate. I don't really understand the stance behind that, though it's hard to nitpick between that duo and Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay being the two best squads in this event. My model thought that pre-event and continues to believe it to be true when we look at my recalculated metrics entering Saturday.
On the flip side, Sahith Theegala/Justin Suh are a fun team for numerous reasons, but we continue to land in this territory of them getting way too much public backing and support. My model has them closer to the $9,300 range, making them an overpriced commodity that is being strongly carried by Theegala.
DraftKings $9,000
It's no surprise to see Tom Kim/Si Woo Kim and Billy Horschel/Sam Burns in this section. I won't talk anyone out of those two teams, although I also like the boom-or-bust nature we get from Tom Hoge/Harris English and Taylor Montgomery/Kurt Kitayama.
Both of those squads have the potential to make birdies in bunches.
DraftKings $8,000
I excluded some of the $8,000 teams that I felt were overrated and left the most tangible choices to consider. For reference sake, Adam Hadwin/Nick Taylor are +105 in a head-to-head against Burns/Horschel, which I believe is fair, but also shows that they are marginally underpriced in round three.
Favorite Teams Under $8,000
As you can tell from the image above, the value starts plateauing when we drop into the $7,000 section. I only had five teams in that area that graded as top 40 teams pre-tournament. If mass-entering lineups, I would mix and match this group with some of the better values up top.
