2024 3M Open Best Bets, Expert PGA Picks

Golf

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Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured (left to right): Tony Finau and Andrew Putnam.

Action Network Staff

Updated:

Jul 24, 2024, 08:21 PM EDT

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The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota for the 2024 3M Open as there are only two PGA Tour events remaining before the FedExCup Playoffs. 25 golfers from last week's Open Championship are in the field this week, including Billy Horschel and Thriston Lawrence, who both finished in the top 10.

Lee Hodges looks to defend this week at TPC Twin Cities after running away from the field and winning the 2023 3M Open by seven shots at 24-under par. Let's get into our 2024 3M Open best bets.

Spencer Aguiar, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have their expert PGA picks ready after crunching the 3M Open odds as a full field of 156 golfers will clash this week at TPC Twin Cities as they try to rise up the FedExCup Standings.

2022 3M Open champion Tony Finau, defending 3M Open winner Lee Hodges and United States Ryder Cup Captain Keegan Bradley headline the field this week along with Sahith Theegala, Sam Burns, Akshay Bhatia, Nick Dunlap and Luke Clanton. Find full betting odds for the 3M Open here.

This golf course was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000 along with PGA Tour player consultant Tom Lehman and measures 7,431 yards as a par-71 with water in play on 15 holes, including the par-5 18th. TPC Twin Cities features Bentgrass greens rolling at a 12.5 on the stimpmeter along with Bentgrass fairways and four-inch rough that is a mix of Bluegrass and fescue.

Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 3M Open as our golf betting experts break down their 2024 3M Open best bets & expert PGA picks.

2024 3M Open Best Bets

Spencer Aguiar: Austin Eckroat Top 20 +275 (ESPN BET)

I backtested the last five years of this tournament to find any corollary trends of the eventual winner.

While a lot of minimal answers surfaced from that analysis, the one significant return in all five spots was how the eventual winner landed as one of the more significant climbers for me pre-event when comparing Projected Putting on Similar Greens versus Baseline Expectations elsewhere.

There's no need to worry about that high-end projection for this portion of the bet since my best bet is going to get capped with Eckroat in the top-20 market, although that factor of an elite ball-striker getting a boost on similar greens played a heavy element in why I liked Eckroat's chances for success this week.

My model only graded Daniel Berger and Keith Mitchell higher in their improvement when faced with a similar green complex, helping turn Eckroat into a top-15 Expected Scorer at TPC Twin Cities and a value at +275 to finish in the top 20.

You can find more of my thoughts on this week's 3M Open on the Links + Locks podcast along with my 3M Open Data-Driven DFS Picks, including three golfers each to fade and back for this week's PGA Tour event.

Matt Gannon: Tony Finau Top 10 +150 (DraftKings)

Hot take: Tony Finau, the 3M Open outright betting favorite, is the best player in this field. Consequently, getting plus money on a top-10 bet feels like a gift here given the lack of depth in this year's 3M Open.

Finau loves these summer birdie-fest events. I am not sure what it is, but all of his skill comes out in these events with weaker fields. This is the reason we have so much hope for Finau in big events on an annual basis.

Don't overthink it — play the best golfer in the field on a course that suits his game perfectly. He is coming off a missed cut at The Open, which is virtually meaningless because Royal Troon is a completely different test than TPC Twin Cities this week.

Finau also was unlucky to play in the bad wave of weather last week, although he did start strong on Thursday before a few big mistakes on Friday did him in.

Outside of last week, Finau has played excellent golf of late. He is having an amazing ball-striking season, and this is surely a spot for him to grab another top 10. TPC Twin Cities should be the perfect spot for him to bounce back as he already has three top-seven finishes here in five visits, including a three-shot win in 2022.

Tony Sartori: Andrew Putnam Top 20 +425 (bet365)

Andrew Putnam flirted with a top-20 finish at last week’s Barracuda Championship, and at +425 odds, I think it’s worth taking a shot on him to sneak into that range this week as well at the 3M Open.

TPC Twin Cities rewards a strong short game while forgiving those who lack distance off the tee, which is the perfect profile for Putnam to succeed over four rounds.

Therefore, it should not be shocking that he finished T11 in his last time out at this venue. Putnam has also gained strokes putting in 12 of his past 19 tournaments with ShotLink Data.

Putnam boasts five top-20 finishes over that stretch.

Finally, he ranks 54th on Tour this season in Birdie or Better Percentage from 175-200 yards out. 19.2% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities come from that range of distance, the largest distribution out of any of the 25-yard groupings.

2024 3M Open Expert PGA Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

Aguiar: Luke Clanton +3000
Gannon: Sahith Theegala +2200
Sartori: Tony Finau +1100

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

Aguiar: Keith Mitchell +3700
Gannon: Ben Silverman +8000
Sartori: Keegan Bradley +4000

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Best Long Shot

Aguiar: Austin Eckroat 60-1
Gannon: Alejandro Tosti 250-1
Sartori: Andrew Putnam 125-1

Biggest Bust

Aguiar: Emiliano Grillo +5500
Gannon: Billy Horschel +3000
Sartori: Sam Burns +1800

Contrarian Player To Target

Aguiar: Keegan Bradley +4000
Gannon: Patrick Rodgers +5500
Sartori: Erik van Rooyen +4500

Your Betting Strategy for the 3M Open

Aguiar: My math noticed that Around-the-Green production shrunk to only a 6% importance for dispersion of scoring for those who worked themselves up the leaderboard and into the top 10 at TPC Twin Cities.

That isn't necessarily a shock when water plays such a heavy factor, but it also showed just under a 5% increase for Total Driving and over a 3% increase for Projected Iron Play to start building this data-intensive blueprint for ball-striking.

Add that to how the winner has consistently graded as one of the more significant climbers for me pre-event when comparing Projected Putting on Similar Greens versus Baseline Expectations elsewhere, and you get a venue that massively rewards ball-striking and helps your random putters — as long as they have shown an inclination toward fast Bentgrass.

Gannon: A staple on The PGA Tour, TPC Twin Cities is a bit of a longer “cookie cutter” TPC design.

The narrative for the week is that you need bombers, but while bombing the golf ball helps, it is not necessary. Past 3M Open winners such as Matthew Wolff, Tony Finau and Cam Champ point to success for bombers at TPC Twin Cities, but it is more important to be straight off the tee this week.

More than straight driving distance, I believe Total Driving is a better stat to look at because it combines both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy.

However, I do not believe Driving Distance or Total Driving is a must. Year after year, golfers like Scott Piercy, J.T. Poston, Kevin Streelman and Michael Thompson have gotten into the mix in the final round, and none of them are known to excel with the driver.

More than anything, the 3M Open has often become a contest of spike approach play and spike putting from the fairway. Obviously, being long and straight helps, but it is not a must.

Sartori: TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open once again this season, which it has done annually since the tournament’s inception in 2019.

TPC Twin Cities is a par-71, 7,431-yard track designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000. This event is typically a birdie-fest, with an emphasis on strong putting.

Last season, five of the top-six finishers here last year ranked 11th or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.

Action Network Staff

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