3M Open tournament founder Hollis Cavner described TPC Twin Cities the best when he called it "birdies and train wrecks."
I don't want to overly dive into that narrative since it is pretty self-explanatory that birdies and trouble will be looming at all turns with water on 13 holes that captures over 300 golf balls annually.
There are also ample scoring opportunities between the three par-5s that play as the most accessible holes along with the five shorter par-4 locations that stretch between 379 to 424 yards. Those eight chances will render eight of the nine easiest opportunities, helping to deliver Birdie or Better Rates that will land between just over 21% at the short par-4 10th hole up to over 50% at the par-5 12th.
My math noticed that Around-the-Green production shrunk to only a 6% importance for dispersion of scoring for those who worked themselves up the leaderboard and into the top 10. That isn't necessarily a shock when water plays such a heavy factor, but it also showed just under a 5% increase for Total Driving and over a 3% increase for Projected Iron play to start building this data-intensive blueprint for ball-striking.
Add all that to your standard TPC expectations — Expected Putting on similar greens and the combination of being able to not only create opportunities but also prevent damage — and it produces a golf course that yields an interesting modeling opportunity for those who take their research to the next step.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 3M Open Data-Driven DFS Picks
Plays
All of my plays will carry under 10% ownership. I would prefer pinpointing some contrarian targets and found a few golfers whom I didn't talk about heavily this week in the outright market when I recorded the Links + Locks 3M Open Betting Preview.
Kevin Yu ($7,200)
Taking one of the ball-striking machines on the PGA Tour in Kevin Yu to a prototypical venue that removes Around-the-Green production feels like an excellent recipe for success.
Yu will need to produce some output of made putts if he wants to compete for a high-end finish, but I am going to trust his second-place projection for Ball-Striking in this spot for DFS and hope that he gets enough out of his short game to work himself up the board.
If he doesn't, the upside will be capped. However, we can afford to take that chance at his $7,200 price tag.
Doug Ghim ($7,300)
I gave Doug Ghim to finish 56th or better at -120 on bet365 as my top pick this week when I recorded Links + Locks with Roberto Arguello. That number has since moved to 53rd or better over the past 24 hours, but there is a lot to like about Ghim's game that may be getting overlooked because of his recent form.
You can hear my complete breakdown when you tune into that podcast, but my list of targets this week will include the who's who of ball-striking savants.
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500)
I have been trying to figure out a way to gain exposure to Jhonattan Vegas in the betting market since Monday morning.
Unfortunately, I haven't found the ideal route past a placement wager since the matchup market left a ton to be desired, although I did find Vegas to be one of the savvier safety targets on the board.
His negative trajectory for upside potential pushed me in a different direction when discussing taking down the title, but Vegas' profile is complete with respectable returns, including a first-place return for Greens in Regulation.
Fades
All fades carry over eight percent ownership within my projections. There is no point in fading what the whole industry is already fading.
Emiliano Grillo ($8,500)
TPC Twin Cities has some semblance of predictability for course history, but we are still looking at a bottom-tier property in terms of rollover success rate.
I say all of that before talking about Emiliano Grillo since the industry has held onto this output of three top-10 finishes in four career attempts at the property as one of the reasons it has turned him into a top-owned player in this $8,000 range.
I don't want this narrative to get overblown that he becomes a definite missed-cut candidate since my model still places him inside the top 55 throughout all three iterations of my sheet. However, the fact that Grillo has only posted one top-40 finish over his past 11 starts (27th at the Memorial) will hurt his profile here when my model has somewhat devalued course history entering the contest.
Nick Dunlap ($8,400)
If you were to tell me that one of Emiliano Grillo or Nick Dunlap posted a top-five finish, I would be much more inclined to believe it ended up being Dunlap because of his boom-or-bust nature.
Over Dunlap's past six starts, he has three finishes outside the top 65 and three top-12 results, including a victory at the Barracuda Championship last week.
Dunlap also has a positive trajectory in his profile for recent Strokes Gained: Total compared to his baseline, but I don't want to ignore his ranking that landed outside the top 60 for Weighted Scoring and Expected Total Driving.
Because of his floor, I am out for any of your safer markets and will find myself underweight in large-field GPPs. The best way to deploy him is likely single-entry or top-10 markets if you still want exposure.
Mackenzie Hughes ($7,700)
My model has been solid this season when recommending to play or fade Mackenzie Hughes.
Hughes' recent form has been solid, but the market has given the Canadian too much credit. My math ranked him 140th for Weighted Proximity, 138th for Expected Ball-Striking and 92nd for Projected Strokes Gained: Total.
Some of the safety markets will provide a little optimism, but I thought his DFS ownership and head-to-head number in the space left a lot to be desired.
