Here are all the players who should be inside the top 30 of my model, but through three rounds are either underachieving when considering their actual ball-striking versus baseline short-game totals, or aren't overachieving by more than a certain threshold.
To keep these names in check, I only pulled players who were ranked in the top 30 of my head-to-head system and possessed a positive expected DraftKings value in my sheet for Sunday's final round.
We often talk about avoiding the round-four leader in DFS because of the built-in ownership percentage that naturally enters the mix from their built-in starting points. However, a name like Jhonattan Vegas has more playability than most options since the industry has clearly made a decision that he should be an underdog to every golfer in a matchup. I have no issues with him being an underdog to an option such as Maverick McNealy, but I do believe we have gone too far with some other golfers.
Typically, that would shift me to an entirely different direction for DFS. However, that may not be the case this time.
As always, DFS contests will be won from more than just one name, so here are a few options I am building around beyond just Vegas and McNealy.
2024 3M Open Round 4 DFS Picks
Mac Meissner (DraftKings $8,100)
Six players have gained more than six strokes off the tee and on approach, but have lost strokes to the field with their around-the-green and putting totals.
Honestly, any of these names should be under consideration as we are looking at a really strong group that has yet to get the most out of their rounds. However, my model found Mac Meissner to be the deserving top-priced player from this group, even though he landed behind Andrew Novak on the list.
Meissner carried some negative trajectory with the flat stick that has morphed into this profile this week and he's dropped 2.11 strokes over three rounds. I can't promise that we'll see him turn it around, but there is a strong reason why he has landed as a favorite for Sunday against the likes of Emiliano Grillo (-130), Patrick Rodgers (-120), Novak (-132) and Seamus Power (-122).
Matt Wallace (DraftKings $7,300)
I considered talking about Rico Hoey ($7,900) because he will be a contrarian pick to keep in mind, but I found it challenging to ignore what Matt Wallace has provided through the opening three days.
The Englishman landed as one of only 10 players to gain strokes in all four critical metrics this week, an impressive return after he imploded with his irons on Thursday to the tune of -2.46 shots.
Keegan Bradley (DraftKings $9,200)
Keegan Bradley is one of 10 players who has gained strokes in all four metrics, but has found himself playing a different event after faltering with a different facet of his game.
Bradley has gained a minimum of 0.67 shots to the field in each of those areas during one of his rounds, meaning that despite a disappointing start to the week that has him close to where he should be on the leaderboard, his upside is higher than may meet the eye.
