Here's everything you need to know about 2024 3M Open first-round leader picks — including our expert's three FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Blaine, Minnesota.
With The Open Championship in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open once again this season, which it has done annually since the tournament’s inception in 2019.
TPC Twin Cities is a par-71, 7,431-yard track designed by Arnold Palmer. This event is typically a birdie-fest, with an emphasis on strong putting on these large Bentgrass greens.
Last season, five of the top-six finishers here last year ranked 11th or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Find my 2024 3M Open first-round leader picks below, including a FRL bet for Tom Hoge.
2024 3M Open First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Keith Mitchell +5000 (BetRivers | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:07 a.m. ET
Keith Mitchell possesses a terrific track record at TPC Twin Cities, finishing in fifth place in each of his past two appearances. Mitchell's recent putting woes scared me away from backing him in the outright market, but I think the ceiling is still there for him to claim a round this week.
Perhaps it will be Thursday's opening round, given that Mitchell ranks 46th on Tour this season in First Round Scoring Average. He's a great ball-striker who can get away with below average putting if he is sticking his approach shots close.
This season, Mitchell is right around the Tour average in Birdie or Better Percentage from the 175-200 yard range. I mention this stat because 19.2% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities come from that range of distance, the largest distribution out of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Tom Hoge +5000 (BetRivers | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:40 a.m. ET
Speaking of ball-striking, Tom Hoge ranks first among the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green this season. Scottie Scheffler is the only one who outranks him in that category this year, and, obviously, there is no Scheffler in the field this week.
Like Mitchell, Hoge's putting scared me away from betting him in the outright market this week, but he should utilize his strong approach play to set up himself up close and get away with just an average putting performance. He finished 20th here last year and fourth the year prior, so Hoge can clearly get away with average putting at this venue.
Hoge also is typically a better starter than finisher, ranking 49th on Tour this season in First Round Scoring Average. At the end of the day, the best ball-striker in this field is 50-1 to lead after the first round, which should be a blind bet given how watered down the competition is this week.
Maverick McNealy +6600 (bet365 | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:32 p.m. ET
The only reason that I am not targeting Maverick McNealy in the outright market this week is that he has been an exceptionally fast starter in tournaments. He ranks 23rd on Tour this season in First Round Scoring Average and profiles particularly well for this venue.
McNealy ranks 29th on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Putting, so it shouldn't be all that surprising that he finished 16th in his last appearance at this track. While his approach game isn't as strong, McNealy still ranks above the Tour average in Birdie or Better Percentage from 175-200 yards out.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 3M Open, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Keegan Bradley Outright Winner (+4000 at BetRivers) – 0.3 Units
- Erik van Rooyen Outright Winner (+4000 at BetMGM) – 0.3 Units
- Patrick Rodgers Outright Winner (+5000 at BetRivers) – 0.3 Units
- Justin Lower Outright Winner (+17500 at Caesars) – 0.3 Units
- Tony Finau Top American (+850 at bet365) – 0.24 Units
- Andrew Putnam Top 20 (+425 at bet365) – 0.23 Units
- Keith Mitchell FRL (+5000 at BetRivers) – 0.15 Units
- Tom Hoge FRL (+5000 at BetRivers) – 0.15 Units
- Maverick McNealy FRL (+6600 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
