There are only two PGA Tour tournaments before the FedExCup Playoffs begin, and the first is this week in Blaine, Minnesota as the 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities.
Our golf analysts have their 2024 3M Open Picks ready as Lee Hodges looks to defend his first PGA Tour title.
Our golf betting experts have already peppered the 2024 3M Open odds and outright betting board on Monday, and they have outright bets for four different golfers to win the tournament this week, including new United States Ryder Cup Captain Keegan Bradley.
Find our favorite 2024 3M Open Picks for this week's PGA Tour event at TPC Twin Cities below.
2024 3M Open Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Keegan Bradley 40-1 (BetRivers)
I went and back-tested the last handful of years at this event to see if my model could figure out a trend for the eventual winner when comparing it to the data.
A few corollary marks kept showing up in the champion's profile, but the one that stood out above everything else ended up being "Expected Putting on Similar Greens Versus Baseline Projection Elsewhere."
Each of the last five winners entered the contest within the top 15 of my model for that area of the game, which includes Tony Finau and Lee Hodges cracking that range again here in 2024.
I decided to build about half my card with that idea in mind for the positive win-equity climbers for me in my sheet, landing me on Keegan Bradley at 40-1 after adding in his stout Weighted Strokes Gained: Total output that surpassed the rest of the field.
Greg Waddell: Sahith Theegala 24-1 (bet365)
For stretches of this season, Sahith Theegala has played like a top-10 player on Tour. With six top-10 finishes in 20 tournaments, he has shown he has the stuff to compete on any given week.
He ranks 16th in total birdies, and his Birdie Percentage on Par 5s is 51% for the season, ranking well above Tour average. At a course that will require the ability to go low, Theegala is an ideal fit. He should also capitalize on the generous fairways at TPC Twin Cities that average 35 yards wide in the landing areas.
It’s a quality opportunity to buy into a bounce-back, buy-low spot on Theegala after he missed the cut at The Open Championship. Given the watered-down field this week, Theegala feels a bit undervalued.
At double the price of Tony Finau, the betting favorite, there is some juice worth squeezing here.
Tony Sartori: Keegan Bradley 40-1 (BetRivers)
I want to buy low on Keegan Bradley following his missed cut at last week’s Open Championship. Prior to that very difficult major championship test, Bradley made the weekend in eight consecutive tournaments, including a runner-up performance at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T18 finish at the PGA Championship.
Bradley profiles well for this course, given that his putter has been relatively hot recently. He has gained strokes putting in four of his past five tournaments, which is important to note because five of the top-six finishers here last year ranked 11th or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Not only has he been generally rolling the ball well, but Bradley also ranks 53rd on Tour this season in Birdie or Better Percentage from 175-200 yards out. 19.2% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities come from that range, the largest distribution out of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Matt Gannon: Ben Silverman 90-1 (DraftKings)
Ben Silverman was the first-round leader this past Thursday at the Barracuda Championship. He has been on a great run of results with top-40 finishes in each of his last seven starts because of his strong ball-striking. Outside of last week, the putter has also been really solid, but it cost him a chance at contention at the Barracuda Championship.
Silverman is not the longest golfer on the PGA Tour, which may hurt him a tad here, but I really trust him to hit the wide fairways and avoid penal rough and water. He should continue hitting the irons well, even if he has some slightly longer approach shots with his irons than his peers.
The putter has been a staple for Silverman along with Bogey Avoidance, as he ranks third on the entire PGA Tour by making bogey on just 11.73% of holes. Although golfers need to take it somewhat low at TPC Twin Cities, Silverman will do a great job avoiding mistakes.
He will be in position to make birdies from the jump, and it is a matter of if the putter cooperates. I do not love him in a pure birdie-fest event, but I expect the 3M Open to play a tad tougher than most summer birdie-fests. Silverman is a great add down the board at 80-1.
