2024 3M Open Predictions & Course Preview
The major championships are always incredible, especially when you have a sweat on the line. For most of the front nine on Sunday at The 152nd Open Championship, it looked like Thriston Lawrence or Justin Rose would emerge as the Champion Golfer of the Year, but Xander Schauffele had other plans.
On the hardest hole on the course, the par-4 11th, Schauffele hit a blind shot over a gorse bush to about two feet. He was the only player on Sunday to birdie that hole. From there, he kicked it into a different gear and added birdies on 13, 14 and 16 as he played one of the most impressive nine-hole stretches at a major championship in the last decade.
Luckily, we were there with the outright bet at 13-1 while we also cashed a Schauffele top-five bet and a Corey Conners top-40 bet.
After the year’s final major, there’s a bit of a lull in the schedule until the FedExCup Playoffs as many golfers playing in the Olympics will stay in Europe this week before playing in France next week.
Nonetheless, there are only two PGA Tour tournaments before the FedExCup Playoffs, with the first being this week's 2024 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities hosts for the sixth straight year and is a Par-71 that measures 7,431 yards. While birdies will fly in bunches, water looms on 15 of the 18 holes. This course is right up there with TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill when it comes to the most penalty strokes on the PGA Tour.
Furthermore, many of the water hazards here are forced carries, which means golfers will essentially be taking their drop from the same spot if they find some of these hazards.
Three longshot winners have won at this event in five years at TPC Twin Cities because the sheer number of penalty areas increase the variance of the event. This doesn’t mean one of the favorites can’t run away from the field, but we shouldn’t be surprised if some lesser-known golfers end up being in the mix on Sunday.
When it comes to key statistics, I am looking at Total Driving, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting (emphasis on Bentgrass), Birdie or Better Percentage and Bogey Avoidance.
Let’s try to find another winner this week.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +$106
- Current bankroll: $520
2024 3M Open Predictions
Tom Hoge
Outright +3500 (bet365) | Top 10 +370 (bet365)
$10 to pay $360 | $15 to pay $71
Tom Hoge was raised in North Dakota and has played a lot of golf tournaments in Minnesota. These ties, along with his elite iron play, led me to bet him here in 2022. He nearly pulled off the win that year but ended up finishing in a tie for fourth.
In five appearances at the 3M Open, he has racked up three top-25 finishes. He’s a strong total driver of the ball and is in the top 30 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over the last three months. More importantly, he’s first in Strokes Gained: Approach.
The putter has always been his Achilles heel, but he’s figured something out with the flatstick. On the season, he has gained at least two strokes putting over the span of a tournament on six different occasions. If that happens this week, I like his chances of being in contention on Sunday.
Keith Mitchell
Outright +3700 (bet365) | Top 10 +380 (bet365)
$10 to pay $380 | $15 to pay $72
Targeting Keith Mitchell in a birdie-fest is always a concern because it’s hard to shoot 20-under par without gaining strokes on the greens. He has lost strokes putting in nine of his last 11 starts, and many of those have been well into the negative.
Even with putting weighted heavily in my model this week, Mitchell still grades out as the second-best golfer in the field for TPC Twin Cities. He’s second in the field in Strokes Gained on Heavy Water Danger courses and seventh in the field in Strokes Gained on Easy Greens in Regulation courses. Over the last 36 rounds, he also leads the field in Strokes Gained Ball-Striking.
He’s also finished solo fifth and in a tie for fifth in each of his last two appearances at TPC Twin Cities and gained over 12 strokes putting in those events. Perhaps he can build off that and have a rare positive week on the greens here in Minnesota.
J.T. Poston
Outright +3500 (DraftKings) | Top 10 +410 (bet365)
$10 to pay $360 | $15 to pay $77
On courses where the Greens in Regulation Rate is high, nobody in the field gains more strokes per round than J.T. Poston.
If that’s not enough, he’s also fourth in the field in Strokes Gained in weak-field events. This is the type of tournament where Poston tends to shine, and his results at this course certainly support that, as he’s finished in ties for second, 11th and 28th here the last three years.
He’s accurate off the tee, a strong iron player and one of the best putters in the world. This is a very fair price at an event that feels wide open.
Ben Griffin
Outright +5500 (bet365) | Top 10 +550 (bet365)
$10 to pay $560 | $10 to pay $98
Ben Griffin is my longshot pick of the week. He missed the cut last week at The Open Championship, but his tournament unraveled thanks to a single bad hole.
Prior to last week, he had made six straight cuts with two top-five finishes mixed in during that stretch. He’s not a long driver of the ball, but he’s very accurate off the tee. This should help him avoid the water in play off the tee. He’s a strong iron player, especially over the last six months, and has an elite short game. In his debut here last year, he finished in a tie for 20th.
