Here's everything you need to know about 2024 3M Open PrizePicks plays for Thursday for this week's PGA Tour event in Blaine, Minnesota.
With The Open Championship in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open once again this season, which it has done annually since the tournament’s inception in 2019.
TPC Twin Cities is a par-71, 7,431-yard track designed by Arnold Palmer. This event is typically a birdie-fest, with an emphasis on strong putting on these large Bentgrass greens.
Last year, five of the top six finishers ranked 11th or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Find my 2024 3M Open PrizePicks plays for Thursday below.
2024 3M Open PrizePicks
Patrick Rodgers Less Than 69 Strokes
Patrick Rodgers ranks ninth on the PGA Tour this season in Birdie or Better Percentage from the 175-200 yard range. I mention this stat because 19.2% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities come from that range of distance, the largest distribution out of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Therefore, it shouldn't be all that surprising that Rodgers has shot a 69 or lower in four of his past five rounds at this venue.
He's also made the weekend here in all three of his career appearances.
His putter has also been on fire recently, gaining true strokes on the greens in four consecutive tournaments. Rodgers has made the weekend in all four of those events, including a 16th-place finish at the Travelers Championship and fifth-place finish at last week's Barracuda Championship.
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Tom Hoge Less Than 68.5 Strokes
I wrote about Tom Hoge in my first-round-leader article this week, and if I like him to lead after the first round, then I obviously also like him to shoot 68 or lower. He's done so in three of his past four rounds at TPC Twin Cities, a trend I expect to continue on Thursday.
Hoge ranks first among the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green this season. Scottie Scheffler is the only one who outranks him in that category this year, which is obviously some elite company to be alongside.
While Hoge's putting is a slight concern, his strong approach play should set himself up close and allow him to get away with just an average putting performance. He finished 20th here last year and fourth the year prior, so Hoge can clearly get away with average putting at this venue.
Hoge also is typically a better starter than finisher, ranking 49th on Tour this season in First Round Scoring Average.
Tony Finau Less Than 68 Strokes
Tony Finau is the chalkiest play on PrizePicks this week, but I still think there's value to be had with this one. He's the tournament favorite this week, and for good reason.
Not only did Finau win here in 2022, but he's made the cut in all five of his career appearances while finishing inside the top 28 all five times.
Subsequently, he's shot a 68 or lower in 15 of his 20 career rounds at TPC Twin Cities.
Finally, Finau has gained true strokes putting over his past four events, with three top-eight finishes over that stretch.
For a more in-depth analysis of the 3M Open, check out the Links + Locks podcast.
