Because men's golf in the 2024 Olympics do not count for the FedExCup Standings, there are only two more tournaments left for golfers to jump into the top 70 and qualify for the playoffs: this week's 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship in two weeks.
Consequently, 24 players in the field at the 3M Open are near the FedExCup Playoffs bubble from 55th to 85th in the current standings, and many are priced as sleeper picks or longshots this week.
TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open once again this year in Blaine, Minnesota and is your prototypical TPC layout, flush with birdie opportunities and plenty of water hazards.
Score low and avoid disaster is the recipe for success here, as players who stay out of penalty areas and present themselves with birdie look after birdie look are the archetype we are after.
Given the field this week and based on the five-year history of the event, this is a great tournament to look for longshots, and we have found three players (two of whom are 170-1 or longer!) worth targeting that fit our ideal statistical profile this week.
Ideally, sleeper picks to back this week are consistent off the tee, attack with their approach shots and score well on Par-5s by making plenty of birdies.
Let's take a look at my 2024 3M Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots below who have a chance to win at 75-1 odds or longer at TPC Twin Cities.
2024 3M Open Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Neal Shipley 75-1 (bet365)
After bursting onto the scene with a stellar amateur performance at the Masters this season, Neal Shipley has since played five PGA Tour-sanctioned events and made the cut in four of the five.
He has demonstrated his potential with a tie for sixth at the ISCO Championship and a tie for 20th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Shipley is long off the tee, and when he finds the fairway, it is truly bombs away, which sets up nicely on a course that requires Par-5 scoring.
On the season, Shipley records a Birdie or Better on Par 5s 55% of the time, which is a whopping 9% above the PGA Tour average on the year.
Shipley also grades out as above average in overall Birdie Average and Driving Distance. While he isn’t a veteran yet, his career is truly on the rise, and it might just be time for his first big win.
Ben Kohles 170-1 (DraftKings)
Next we move to some true “long” longshots.
Ben Kohles has quietly been playing phenomenal golf for over two months.
The 2023 Korn Ferry Tour player of the year has now made eight of his last nine cuts, including four straight entering this week’s 3M Open.
He isn’t the most recognizable name, but he has been in serious contention multiple times already this season, finishing second at the Byron Nelson, along with a tie for sixth at the Puerto Rico Open.
Kohles is as consistent as you can find off the tee, and he rarely makes a mistake with his driver in hand. While he isn't long, Kohles ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy, and his ability to find the fairway will be a huge boost toward his chances of winning this week.
Kohles is also above average in finding the greens without a mistake. He ranks 55th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) % on the year. His consistency allows him to play traditional holes well, grading out nicely on Par-4s. When he’s rolling, he makes golf look easy from tee to green.
He ranks in the top 70 on Tour on approach shots from anywhere inside 150 yards, and that sets him up well for TPC Twin Cities.
Brice Garnett 300-1 (bet365)
Last but certainly not least, we will take a big flier on a golfer with a stellar track record in Minnesota. Can you blame us in backing a Garnett in the Twin Cities?
In five appearances at the 3M Open, Brice Garnett has made the cut each time, finishing T23, T26, T16, T31 and T53. None of those individual results are anything to write home about, but it is certainly worth remembering that he always finishes with a positive week in Minnesota.
Garnett is a veteran who has shown capable of popping up and surprising from time to time with a victory – as evidenced by his win at the Puerto Rico Open earlier this season. On the year, Garnett has finished within the top 20 on three occasions.
Maybe the biggest reason to keep an eye on Garnett this week is what he will be playing for. Garnett currently ranks 83rd in the FedExCup Standings, and a serious run at winning the 3M Open could punch his ticket into the FedExCup Playoffs.
Given his track record at the event, it’s worth a longshot ticket at 250-1.
