Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 American Express first-round leader picks — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event.
With the Sony Open in Hawaii in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's American Express in La Quinta, California. This unique event features a three-course rotation and a 54-hole cut.
Those three courses include La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West and the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West. La Quinta is the easiest of the three courses.
Find my 2024 American Express first-round leader picks below.
2024 American Express First-Round Leader Picks
Scottie Scheffler +2000 (FanDuel | 0.75 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:14 p.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the day progresses.
The earlier you tee off, the more soft greens you face that are much more receptive to your shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
This tournament is a little different because of the three-course rotation, which means the field is spread among three different venues on Thursday. As I mentioned in the introduction, La Quinta is the easiest among the three courses, and it is no coincidence that the first-round leader typically comes out of the group of guys to play that track on Thursday.
Davis Thompson was the first-round leader in 2023 after playing at La Quinta, while Patrick Cantlay and Lee Hodges tied after playing the first round at La Quinta in 2022.
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Therefore, if you have an early tee time at La Quinta on Thursday, then you own an advantage over the rest of the field for that round. Add that the best golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler, begins on that course, and we are officially on 59-watch for this opening round.
Especially with Jon Rahm gone, Scheffler is undoubtedly the best player on Tour. La Quinta is a ball-striker's paradise, and there is not a better ball-striker on the planet than Scheffler.
Yes, his putter remains suspect, but he can get away with it here as long as his game remains true to form. Scheffler has finished third, T25 and T11 in three appearances here, and this week is setting up for another strong finish.
The strongest indicator of success in this tournament has been Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%), which sounds obvious but reiterates ball-striking over putting. Scheffler ranked first on Tour last season in GIR% and is an absurd 66-72 (92%) on hitting GIR through his first four rounds to start this season. The small and flat greens at these three courses should favor his strong ball-striking and help boost his putting numbers as well.
Not only am I placing 0.75 Units on Scheffler to lead after the first-round at +2000 via FanDuel, but I am also putting a full unit on him to win outright at +600.
Wyndham Clark +5500 (FanDuel | 0.25 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:58 p.m. ET
Wyndham Clark also tees off at La Quinta on Thursday. There's a lot of noise around Clark this week as rumors are starting to swirl that he could join Rahm's team over on LIV, but that is not a concern for me.
Clark was nearly as sensational as Scheffler in terms of hitting greens at The Sentry, going 63-72 for a remarkable 88% GIR rate, which is currently the third-highest on Tour behind Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. His ball-striking has been great since the conclusion of last season, which culminated with a third-place finish at the TOUR Championship after he won the U.S. Open and the Wells Fargo Championship.
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His game continues to improve, and he has had success in this tournament with a 13th-place finish in 2022. Clark is one of the best golfers to tee it up at La Quinta on Thursday, and at 55/1, it's worth taking a flyer on him to lead after the first round.
Like Scheffler, I am also taking Clark to win this tournament outright at +5000 (0.5 Units), a line that is available at Circa and is 10 dollars longer than the rest of the market.
