The PGA Tour season continues this week with the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, hosted by Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Our golf betting experts have already peppered the board at open on Monday with outright bets, and they have bets for three different golfers ready for this Signature Event.
Find our 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Bets below.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Bets
Jason Sobel: Matt Fitzpatrick +3500 (bet365)
The first time I watched Matt Fitzpatrick in person was a decade ago at Bay Hill, where the reigning U.S. Amateur champion was competing alongside some of the game’s top professionals. He posted scores of 71-81 to miss the cut but clearly looked like he belonged during that week.
Personally, I watched him practicing for a while before the tournament, as he chipped one ball after another close to a target on the green. There was something about the matchup of the Bermuda turf and the Englishman’s game which just seemed like a natural connection.
10 years later, he owns four top-10 finishes and six top-25 results in nine career starts at this tournament, one which holds some obvious meaning for him. Coming off a good-but-not-great performance at PGA National, where he showed some signs of rounding into form, he makes a lot of sense this week, with a price that is certainly palatable in the outright marketplace.
Spencer Aguiar: Scottie Scheffler +700 (bet365)
While I understand this "new" version of the PGA Tour continues to deliver longshot after longshot, there are specific venues that emphasize the skill difference between elite players and others.
In my opinion, a track like Bay Hill accomplishes that because it demands a combination of immaculate Total Driving of the ball and pristine Proximity from 200+ Yards. That range is the only bucket at Bay Hill that experiences an increase in projection (six percent over average), and the thick three-inch rough will make adding a combination of distance and accuracy all that much more important for a course that measures 7,466 yards.
The top of the board is strong with Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler. I don't dislike any of those three names if you wanted to start your card in that area, but for me, it will come down to Scheffler's tee-to-green game for why it is finally time for him to enter the winner's circle again.
Scheffler graded first in my model for Weighted Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Total (Long Rough), Strokes Gained: Total (Wind), Ball-Striking and Weighted Proximity. If there is a course where he can win while not gaining strokes with the putter, it's Bay Hill because of the higher scores and increased capacity for hitting a ton of greens in regulation because of the nine holes that have water.
Matt Gannon: Emiliano Grillo +10000 (bet365)
Emiliano Grillo has very solid course history around Bay Hill. His six starts include five made cuts and a DQ. He also has hit the ball tremendously at this venue, highlighted by gaining 10 strokes Ball-Striking last year.
He lost nearly all of that on the putting surfaces, which has been Grillo's historic downfall.
| Year | Grillo SG: Putting Rank | Grillo SG: Putting Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | +0.642 |
| 2023 | 84 | +0.055 |
| 2022 | 112 | -0.022 |
| 2021 | 129 | -0.104 |
| 2020 | 192 | -0.905 |
| 2019 | 185 | -0.633 |
However, Grillo has an eerily similar stat profile to the one Luke List posted at Riviera last year before he contended this year. Like List, Grillo has figured out the putter over the last year as he gained strokes putting last season for the first time since 2018. He has built upon that success by gaining on the greens in six of seven starts so far in 2024.
Grillo should be very confident heading to Bay Hill because he has played so well there and now has the prowess with the putter to cash in on his ball-striking.
