2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Odds: Expert Betting Targets at Bay Hill

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Odds

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds — our PGA Tour mega guide and expert golf betting picks for this week's Signature Event at Bay Hill.

Some of the best golf betting advice I’ve ever received came from a PGA Tour pro, who of course couldn’t wager on the sport himself but still understood the intrinsic value of putting your money on a combination of strategy and stubbornness.

“If there’s a guy you think is going to win soon, especially on a specific course,” this player told me, “then you should probably keep betting him until he does.”

I’m bitterly reminded of this suggestion after a fortnight which included yours truly recommending Austin Eckroat as a favorite outright play and Eckroat winning for the first time — and I shouldn’t have to explain that those two things didn’t take place in the same week.

Instead of lamenting what could’ve been, I’ll attempt to use that aforementioned advice to our advantage at this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational as we make our 2024 Arnold Palmer picks.

Anyone who’s been gambling on this maddening sport for a while understands that there are specific tournaments where a name will always be at the forefront of your thought process, even before all the research and modeling.

Rory McIlroy at Augusta National might be the greatest current example of the perfect match between player and venue which has only resulted in a pile of uncashed tickets. Tony Finau at Torrey Pines is another one of those for me — he’s finished second, fourth and sixth (three times!), yet he's never won there. Shane Lowry, too, fits that mold at PGA National, where he posted a third consecutive top-five finish this past week.

I bring up all of this because Matt Fitzpatrick is a player I’ve always believed could/would/should win at Bay Hill, and his bevy of strong finishes has only enhanced that feeling, not deterred it.

I’ll get into my Fitz selection momentarily, but the point here is that we shouldn’t veer too far from week to week. That might be especially prophetic at the API, where a strong performance off the tee is imperative on one of the PGA Tour’s more difficult courses.

This one is a home game for me. I can’t wait to head down the road to Bay Hill, where I’ll be doing my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show with co-host Michael Collins from the range for a few days this week. Let’s get to some of those picks we’ll be talking about.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Odds

One player to win the tournament at short odds

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500)

The first time I watched Matt Fitzpatrick in person was a decade ago at Bay Hill, where the reigning U.S. Amateur champion was competing alongside some of the game’s top professionals. He posted scores of 71-81 to miss the cut but clearly looked like he belonged during that week.

Personally, I watched him practicing for a while before the tournament, as he chipped one ball after another close to a target on the green. There was something about the matchup of the Bermuda turf and the Englishman’s game which just seemed like a natural connection.

10 years later, he owns four top-10 finishes and six top-25 results in nine career starts at this tournament, one which holds some obvious meaning for him. Coming off a good-but-not-great performance at PGA National, where he showed some signs of rounding into form, he makes a lot of sense this week, with a price that is certainly palatable in the outright marketplace.

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One player to win the tournament at long odds

Corey Conners (+7000)

I’ve mentioned Corey Conners’s name a lot already in the first few months of this year – too much, really, considering he’s yet to post a top-20 result in six starts. So, why go back to him this week? Well, one explanation could be the ol’ insanity definition in regard to doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Another, though, is that the Canadian follows the same blueprint as Fitzpatrick, as his ball-striking prowess should keep him in the mix when a score closer in relation to par is expected for the contenders. He finished in solo third here three years ago, so we’ve seen Conners contend at Bay Hill before. Fresh off a final-round 67 at the Cognizant Classic, I’m looking for him to keep that momentum intact.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational OAD Picks

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Scottie Scheffler (+700)

Look, you don’t need me to tell you that Scottie Scheffler is really good at golf — or even that he won this event two years ago and finished in a tie for fourth last year. What you might need, though, is a reminder that in OADs, which don’t offer bonus money/points for the majors, these signature events are worth just as much as those four, if not more.

The moral of the story is that while most of your fellow poolsters might be saving the world’s No. 1-ranked player for a “bigger” tournament, don’t be afraid to use him at a spot like this, where the smaller field gives him greater win equity, and you can get a little contrarian from the masses.

Jason Day (+3500)

Since his 2016 victory at Bay Hill, when he was still in the midst of playing the best golf of his career, Jason Day finished between 22^nd and 31^st with a pair of WDs in five starts here. That is, until last year, when he inched back into the top 10 with a tie for 10th.

So far this year, he’s quietly playing some very good golf once again, with three top-10 finishes in five starts while gaining strokes in every major category each time. I think he makes sense for OADs, DFS and don’t hate an outright play at this number, either.

Min Woo Lee (+4500)

If you looked at the API odds when they were released on Monday morning, you didn’t see Min Woo Lee’s name. He didn’t qualify for this event until a final-round 67 at PGA National led to a share of runner-up honors, and as I’m typing these words, he’s still not listed.

That said, once he presumably commits after this late qualification, he makes for a very intriguing play, especially in peer-to-peer formats such as OADs and DFS, where the late listing might keep others from including him on their original lists.

And just now seeing his DFS price — $6,600 on DraftKings! — he makes for a smash play there, as well, and I'd be surprised/disappointed if he's not one of the highest-owned players this week.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Props

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Cameron Young (+600 for Top-five Finish)

This admittedly feels a little chase-y, after Cameron Young tied for fourth this past weekend at PGA National, but that’s now three straight solid results following a T16 at Riv and a T8 in Scottsdale. On a course which rewards smashing it long and straight off the tee, I like Young to improve upon previous results of T10 and T13.

And for a karma play, it never hurts to pick a Wake Forest guy at Arnie’s Place.

Top 10

One player to finish top-10

Adam Scott (+350 for Top-10 Finish)

Many have questioned why Adam Scott and others have now received multiple exemptions into Signature Events, as people are connecting the dots between being a player director on the PGA Tour’s Policy Board and being given handouts – and those critics include some fellow pros.

A few points in response: First, it’s a little silly that exemptions into these elite fields even exist, but we can call it the Justin Thomas Rule, essentially keeping some big names in the mix even if their games kept them from qualifying.

Second, we should view these on a case-by-case basis; Scott remains a decent drawing card and is certainly playing solid golf, with top-20 results in his last seven worldwide events, while fellow player director and sponsor exemption Webb Simpson is a former Arnold Palmer scholar at Wake Forest.

Third, and I realize this will be a controversial take, we shouldn’t be naïve as to how much off-course work these guys are doing in order to help make the PGA Tour a better place for its membership, especially with everything in the game that’s going on right now. Let’s at least ask the question as to whether these volunteer positions should come with some on-course benefits.

Sure, this seems like favoritism on the surface, but it can just as easily be viewed as a reward for the time and effort necessary to serve in their current roles. In any case, Scott is in this week, and he shouldn’t be overlooked as a guy who didn’t “earn” his way there. While he only owns two top-10 results in 13 previous API starts, he’s playing some solid golf right now and should be able to keep it going here.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+210 for Top-20 Finish)

My favorite play for last week’s Cognizant Classic was Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who opened with an uninspiring first-round total but quickly climbed the leaderboard Friday morning, getting himself into second place halfway through his round.

If you blinked, though, you missed him heading back in the wrong direction, as two doubles and three bogeys in his last seven holes moved him from that spot on the leaderboard to the wrong side of the cut line. Nonetheless, as I wrote last week, I’m still very bullish on him for the Florida Swing, and now he returns to Bay Hill, where he’s been a member and has three top 20s in four career starts.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Viktor Hovland

One of the bigger surprises in a year that’s been filled with ‘em so far is that Viktor Hovland has yet to feed off last year’s heater, finishing T22, T58 and T19 in a slow start to this campaign. All of that might only be reason to buy low before he starts heating up again, which admittedly makes him less of a Bingo Square at this one and more of a high-priced yet potentially low-owned selection.

With some low salaries on worthy players in this shortened field, you’ll be able to spend up for a big name and Hovland – with ties for second and 10th in his last two appearances here – should offer a little differentiation at the top in tournament contests.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Byeong Hun An

While players like Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg have in recent years proven that it’s possible to enjoy success directly after turning pro, it takes much longer for many others.

That’s been the case for Ben An, who was the youngest U.S. Amateur champion ever at the age of 17 back in 2009, but he might finally be turning into an elite-level player now, 15 years later, with top-25 finishes in four of six starts this year, including a pair of top fives to kick things off.

This traditionally hasn’t been a venue that he appears to love, but his tee-to-green game is so good right now that I’m willing to bet on him to buck that historic trend.

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DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Taylor Moore

With winds expected to gust up to 20 miles per hour in Orlando this weekend, I’m looking for players who can handle those conditions. Taylor Moore has proven to be a strong wind player and comes with the added bonus of having won in the state of Florida just last year at the Valspar Championship.

He’s yet to do anything too special this year, but a move to the East Coast could be just what he needs to start climbing some leaderboards again.

More Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Chris Kirk (+4500 for FRL)

In 11 career starts at Bay Hill, Chris Kirk has opened with a score in red figures eight times, including each of the last five years. Last year, his first-round 67 left him in second place on Thursday evening, behind only Jon Rahm’s 65. Coming off a final-round 65 at PGA National with some through-the-roof ball-striking numbers, Kirk makes sense to keep things going early on at Bay Hill.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Will Zalatoris (+3500)

The 30/1-35/1 range is my personal sweet spot this week, with the aforementioned Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jason Day each priced here. That might make it a bit more difficult to find worthy head-to-head opponents for Will Zalatoris, but he’s another guy whose game is on the proper trajectory after missing much of last year due to injury.

Even if those specific matchups mean there isn’t much value, Zalatoris should be a fine play in other formats.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500), Stephan Jaeger (+7000), Tom Hoge (+8000), Adam Schenk (+18000)

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2024 Puerto Rico Open Picks

For the true golf sickos out there, this is like Christmas in March, as we’ve finally reached the first alternate-field event of the year. Over the past few years, the winning score is always right around 20-under, but the player shooting it is less predictable, as we’ve ranged from star-in-the-making Viktor Hovland to Ryan Brehm off a bunch of MCs. Here are some names to consider for this one.

He's not the favorite this week (that honor goes to Rasmus Højgaard), but it’s tough to believe that Daniel Berger (+2500) isn’t the most talented player in this field. He’s still on the comeback trail, but perhaps nothing will help that like playing a tournament largely against those without nearly as much experience.

On a 7,500-yard golf course, there’s reason to believe length off the tee will be a major factor, and so far this season, nobody’s had more of it than Chris Gotterup (+2500), who leads the PGA Tour in Driving Distance and walked PGA National on Monday, perhaps getting some inspiration from buddy Austin Eckroat winning.

In one OAD pool that I’m in which requires all selections made before the season, Sam Stevens (+4000) was my pick here, and I’m not veering away from it now. Speaking of Eckroat, don’t be surprised if Stevens joins him as yet another Oklahoma State product in the winner’s circle.

I’ve been on Chan Kim (+4500) a few times already this year, with varying degrees of success. This number doesn’t seem to have much value until you start looking at the remainder of the field, which gets kind of ugly in a hurry.

Rico Hoey (+11000) has some flair, but he hasn't shown much of a short game on the highest level, at least not yet, with a cold putter to start his rookie campaign. I’m willing to take a chance on that changing now that he’s on different surfaces.

Few players have enjoyed as much success on resort-style, alternate-field venues as Brice Garnett (+15000). He’s worth a play at this number.

I get that Kevin Kisner (+35000) is perhaps making the transition from player to commentator, as he’s rarely had his best stuff over the past few years, but this number is too big to not take a small chance that he finds a little something this week.

It's a similar story for Brandt Snedeker (+40000), who’s shown a few recent flashes and at least knows what it takes to win at this level, which is more than we can say for about 90 percent of this field.

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