Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions — our PGA Tour betting preview and expert golf betting predictions for this week's PGA Tour event at Bay Hill.
We tend to remember the bad breaks more than the good ones — and especially more than the weeks where nothing goes right. I’ll be honest, last week didn’t even give us much of a sweat. These weeks are going to happen and are a lot less stressful than having Patrick Cantlay melt down on Sunday at The Genesis Invitational.
The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a Signature Event that will operate the same way as The Genesis a few weeks back. There are only 69 golfers in the field, and there will be a cut – the top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead will stick around and play the weekend.
This means that most of the field is going to make the cut, which means we should be looking more for upside than consistency when it comes to our placement bets. When betting outrights, we always prefer that path.
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge is one of the most iconic courses on the PGA Tour rotation. It is a par-72 that measures 7,466 yards. Like most Florida courses, it is exposed to the elements and has water lurking everywhere.
After the PGA Tour decided to take the teeth out of PGA National last week, expect a very tough test of golf this week, especially on the weekend. The forecast is calling for 20 mile per hour gusts on Saturday and potentially on Sunday as well.
Like many courses that host majors, Bay Hill will expose any weakness in a golfer's bag. It is challenging off the tee (fairways with dog legs and an average width of 32 yards, water hazards and thick rough), the greens are tough to hit in regulation (56% for the field in 2024), the scrambling success rate is lower than Tour average, and three-putts are common on these firm and fast Bermudagrass greens.
This has played as one of the 10 toughest courses on Tour each of the last five years.
With over 60% of approach shots coming from over 150 yards and 30% of approach shots coming from over 200 yards, mid and long iron play will be imperative this week. Driving the ball well will also come in handy, as it’s tough to stop the ball on these firm greens coming out of three-inch Bermudagrass rough. Experience in Florida, experience on difficult courses and experience on long courses are all positives this week.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$100
- Current bankroll: $653
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Predictions
Scottie Scheffler to Win +650 (DraftKings | Use Odds Boost at +950)
Bet $20 to pay $150 (or boosted to pay $210)
I rarely bet on the favorite to win an event, but I had a hard time getting away from Scottie Scheffler this week. Why swim against the current when you can swim with it? Over the last 12 months of play, Scheffler leads this field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Birdie or Better Percentage, Birdie Opportunities Inside 15 Feet and Bogey Avoidance — and he leads several of these statistics by wide margins.
He’s also third in DataGolf’s Course Fit metric, second in Strokes Gained per round in Florida over the last three years and first in Strokes Gained per round on Difficult Courses. He’s also won and finished fourth at Bay Hill in his last two appearances.
He is putting up prime Tiger Woods type of tee-to-green numbers. It’s almost as simple as if he putts well, he’s going to win.
Cameron Young to Win +2800 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $580
Cameron Young is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, but he’s had a number of close calls. He seems to play his best on the big stage and on difficult golf courses. How many times have we seen him in the mix at majors over the last few years?
Before earning his PGA Tour card, he won two times on the Korn Ferry Tour, so we at least know he has that in him. The game seems to be trending at the moment, as he finished in a tie for fourth at the Cognizant Classic (positive in all four Strokes Gained categories) and tied for 16th at The Genesis Invitational (+7.5 strokes ball-striking).
He’s an excellent fit for Bay Hill and has finished T10 and T13 here the last two years in his only two appearances.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Placement Predictions
Viktor Hovland Top 5 +350 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $180
Viktor Hovland is not off to a great start this year. He’s played in three events and has yet to finish better than T19. Despite the lack of form, he still has the third-shortest outright odds on the betting board because he fits Bay Hill like a glove.
He’s one of the best drivers of the ball in the field, he’s an excellent long iron player, and he’s a good putter on Bermuda greens. The short game can be hit or miss, but his ability to hit greens in regulation at a high rate should give him a big advantage over the field.
He leads this field in Strokes Gained per round in Florida over the last three years and has finished second and T10 at this event the last two years. I like the +350 number that we are getting for him to finish in the top five this week.
Adam Scott Top 10 +400 (BetRivers)
Bet $20 to pay $130
My model absolutely loves Adam Scott this week. I have him ranked 12th overall while his outright odds are 21st on the betting board. He seems to be having a career resurgence, especially with ball-striking. For a few years there, his short game kept him afloat, which is very unlike Scott when he was in his prime.
He’s played in four events this year and has posted a top-20 finish in all of them. During that stretch, he’s gained over 15 strokes ball-striking. He has plenty of experience in Florida and has made six of his last seven cuts at this event. I like him to keep the strong form going and hopefully finish in the top 10 this week.
Corey Conners Top 20 +165 (Caesars)
Bet $20 to pay $53
Corey Conners has played in six events this year and has finished between 24th and 57th in all of them. While that consistency is nice, the form doesn’t really jump off the page.
However, if you look at the underlying metrics, it’s hard to believe he doesn’t have better finishes. During that stretch, he has gained over 26 strokes ball-striking and has lost nearly 20 strokes with his short game (around the green and putting). Those numbers are staggering.
He tends to play his best on difficult courses that reward good ball-striking and has tied for 21st, 11th and third here in the last three years. If he has an average week with the short game, a top 20 should be an easy feat for Conners.
Let’s have a week and find our first winner of the year!
