Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round PrizePicks plays for Thursday's PGA Tour event.
With the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill hosts once again, which it has done annually since 1979.
Bay Hill is a par-72, 7,466-yard track designed by Dick Wilson and Bob Simmons that rewards strong driving, good ball-strikers and those who can avoid water penalties on the way to putting on these Bermudagrass greens.
Find my 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational PrizePicks for Thursday below.
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational PrizePicks
Scottie Scheffler: Less Than 69.5 Strokes
I wrote about Scottie Scheffler to lead after Thursday in my first-round leader article, and if I like him to do that, then I also think he'll shoot 69 or lower in the process.
The world's No. 1 golfer can win any round at any time, and there is a lot to like about Scheffler's chances at Bay Hill.
First, he won here in 2022 and finished fourth last season. This success should not be shocking because this is a ball-striker's course, and Scheffler is the best ball-striker on the planet.
Most strokes gained total per round at @APinv last 5 years, among players in field this week (min. 10 rounds):
Scottie Scheffler, +2.43
Rory McIlroy, +2.18
Matt Fitzpatrick, +2.13
Sungjae Im, +1.88
Chris Kirk, +1.76— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) March 6, 2024
We all know that his one weakness is putting, but perhaps that can be nullified a bit on these Bermudagrass greens. This season, Scheffler has finished third at the WM Phoenix Open, fifth at The Sentry and won at the unofficial Hero World Challenge in December.
All three of those tournaments were contested on Bermudagrass greens, and Scheffler gained cumulative True Strokes Putting across those three events. I know he's been utilizing a new putter on the practice greens this week, but I don't think that's fair to include in your handicapping whether positively or negatively when there is just no way of knowing how he will handle the new stick in a competitive setting until he actually does so.
Finally, Scheffler opened with a 68 here last year.
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Cameron Young: More Than 4 Birdies or Better
Cameron Young has been playing a terrific golf recently, with three straight finishes inside the top 16, including his fourth-place finish at last week's Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.
His success should continue this week because Bay Hill rewards terrific driving, with four of the top-seven finishers last year ranking 12th or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, the only metric where that trend occurred. This track is longer and has plenty of water hazards in play, so it makes sense that those who can gain strokes with the driver thrive here.
This layout bodes well for Young, who has gained strokes off the tee in each of his past six tournaments and now ranks fifth among this field in that metric this season. While Young's driver has been excellent, his putter has been strong too.
He gained True Strokes Putting at both the Cognizant Classic and WM Phoenix Open, two venues that are contested on Bermudagrass greens, and he finished in the top eight in both tournaments. Finally, Young has had success here, finishing inside the top 13 in each of his two appearances.
He also recorded four birdies or better in three of the four rounds here last season, including six in the opener.
Justin Rose: Less Than 3.5 Birdies or Better
I'm also fading Justin Rose, who has gotten off to a troubling start this season, at least for his standards. Yes, he has yet to miss a cut, but he has failed to crack the top 40 in four of his past five tournaments, including his T64 performance at last week's Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.
This lack of success is likely to continue at Bay Hill, a venue he has struggled mightily at as he has missed the cut or withdrawn in each of his past four appearances here. It makes sense that Rose has struggled here as he has gotten older, primarily because his ball striking and driving have taken a dive with the passing of time.
This season, Rose ranks 145th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Lastly, he failed to record more than three birdies or better in each of his past five rounds at Bay Hill.
