Here's everything you need to know about 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets for the PGA Tour's fifth event of 2024 in Pebble Beach, California.
Jason Sobel, Spencer Aguiar and Matt Gannon have picks for Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and more as we break down our 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets in the second Signature Event of the PGA Tour season.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Justin Thomas Top Five +500 (FanDuel)
It’s coming, folks. I know some of you might be sick of hearing that about Justin Thomas, who endured a below-average (by his standards) performance last season yet was given a spot on the Ryder Cup team anyway. But he now owns top-five finishes in each of his last four worldwide starts, including a tie for third at The AmEx when he played in the final group two weeks ago.
It doesn’t take an analytics expert to spot the difference. In his last five starts before this recent stretch, he uncharacteristically lost strokes with his irons every time. In these four, though, he’s gained on approach shots – and in three of the four, he gained more than a full stroke per round. Big things are coming for JT, and the crescendo just might come during major championship season, but I don’t want to overlook him before then.
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Spencer Aguiar: Sungjae Im -120 Over Cameron Young (bet365)
I've mentioned my disdain for these no-cut events in the past because losing missed-cut equity affects our ROI in a vacuum — most of my model is built under the pretense of finding overvalued commodities. Nonetheless, books are overrating Cameron Young to begin 2024.
Young rated outside the top 50 of my model in four of my six key statistical categories this week, including a paltry 71st (out of 80) in "pitch-and-putt" projection. Consequently, the 26-year-old is my most overvalued target on the board.
None of that is to say my model trusted Im's recent volatile floor either, but I made a concerted effort to run my matchups to feature marginally more upside since all players are guaranteed four rounds of golf.
That was an area where I saw my most significant deviation when looking into proper pricing since Sungjae skyrocketed from being overrated to being appropriately priced. That was all I needed to punch a ticket on the South Korean against my most fade-worthy option in the market.
Matt Gannon: Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 +190 (FanDuel)
Hideki Matsuyama looked like his old self with the irons at Torrey Pines last week. It has been a long time coming for Matsuyama with a load of injuries since his previous wins.
Pebble Beach is not an event he generally plays, but I love the way it sets up for him. It is a golf course that demands excellent iron play, and Matsuyama is a generational iron player. He is coming off a week of gaining more than three strokes on approach, and he is ready for another good week. With only 80 golfers in this field, finishing in the top 20 is not too much to ask for at nearly 2-1 odds.
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2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Max Homa
- Spencer Aguiar: Collin Morikawa
- Matt Gannon: Viktor Hovland
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Beau Hossler
- Aguiar: Wyndham Clark
- Gannon: Corey Conners
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Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Ludvig Åberg
- Aguiar: Maverick McNealy
- Gannon: Sam Burns
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Maverick McNealy
- Aguiar: Wyndham Clark
- Gannon: Tommy Fleetwood
Trend That Guides Your 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Strategy
Sobel: Even in the expected chilly, rainy, windy conditions – highs in the mid-50s! wind gusts up to 30 mph! – a visit to Pebble Beach is good for the soul.
Some of the big names in this week’s field might not necessarily agree with that statement, considering most of them have opted to skip this event on the busy West Coast calendar in recent years.
18 of the top 20 in the current Official World Golf Ranking will be at Pebble Beach to brave the elements, including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland, but my initial idea is to favor those who are not only among the elite but also enjoy this event enough that they were playing it before it was elevated in status.
Aguiar: With over 12% more approach shots from 0-125 yards at Pebble Beach than a typical course on the PGA Tour, players will hit most of their approaches from the same distance because of the forced layups that place everyone in the same proximity bucket.
It is worth noting that the typical three-course rotation of this event will shrink to two since Monterey Peninsula Country Club has been removed from the mix. We will see how that affects the opening two rounds with everyone rotating between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, although this is quickly turning into a contest that may feature low temperatures, rain and strong wind.
That could end up being troubling because Pebble's wide-open layout on the coast has the chance to turn this into a grueling Open Championship-type test. I’d cautiously attack this betting board until we get more clarity.
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Gannon: Pebble Beach is a true golfer's paradise, and it is a gift that golf fans get to see it with its strongest field in recent memory this time around as a Signature Event. Outside of U.S. Opens, this event generally has a bit of a weaker field, but that will not be the case for this year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Strong field or not, the recipe around Pebble remains the same. Be willing to take your medicine off the tee, be extremely precise with your irons into the small greens and have a phenomenal short game. It is no surprise that players like Jordan Spieth find so much success here annually. Consequently, I am targeting trending players with this build who play here regularly.
We saw this happen at the RBC Heritage last year as the event received elevated status for the first time ever, and it still boiled down to a few golfers who play there every year. Like Harbour Town, Pebble requires some nuance and will benefit the golfers who are familiar with the conditions.
