2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks & Mega Guide
Here's everything you need to know about 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks — our Mega Guide and betting picks for the second Signature Event of the PGA Tour season.
This isn’t your grandfather’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Gone this year are the leisurely weekend broadcasts featuring more C-list duffers hamming it up for the crowd than actual professional golfers contending for the tournament title.
Love it or hate it, this edition of the Clambake will feature a limited number of celebs, each of whom – along with the rest of the amateurs – will only compete on Thursday and Friday.
That’s not the only change: The tournament will move from a three-course rotation to just two venues, with Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill simultaneously hosting the opening rounds, and the former serving as the lone weekend track. Meanwhile, the field has been reduced to just 80 players, as this one serves as the second of eight Signature Events on the PGA Tour schedule.
I’ll be traveling to the Monterey Peninsula early this week and absolutely can’t wait.
Even in the expected chilly, rainy, windy conditions – highs in the mid-50s! wind gusts up to 30 mph! – a visit to Pebble Beach is good for the soul.
Some of the big names in this week’s field might not necessarily agree with that statement, considering most of them have opted to skip this event on the busy West Coast calendar in recent years.
18 of the top 20 in the current Official World Golf Ranking will be at Pebble Beach to brave the elements, including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland, but my initial idea is to favor those who are not only among the elite but also enjoy this event enough that they were playing it before it was elevated in status.
That leaves a limited number of names, but it helps explain the first few on my list, as we get to the picks for this week’s 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks
One player to win the tournament outright at short odds
Jordan Spieth (+1800 | FanDuel)
This will be neither an original nor an unpopular option, as Jordan Spieth has enjoyed/endured some adventures at Pebble Beach over the years, both figuratively and literally.
From his victory at this event in 2017 to his five top-10 finishes in 10 other starts to his death-defying second shot into the eighth green two years ago that might’ve left you nauseous in your living-room recliner, Spieth has quite a history at this iconic venue – one which very obviously suits his creative eye.
"This is downright terrifying right now."
This shot from Jordan Spieth was quite the situation. 😬 pic.twitter.com/sq04R96GXQ
— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) February 5, 2022
That might count for more this week than most others. While nearly every world-class player in this field has some competitive rounds under his belt at Pebble – even if it was just in the 2019 U.S. Open – most have eschewed this tournament in an effort to avoid either the unseemly weather, the pro-am format, the lengthy rounds or some combination of all three.
Whether it’s a technical advantage or simply a karmic one, those who routinely show up to this event should have an edge. Emboldened by a solo third-place finish in his only previous start this year at The Sentry, Spieth should be prepared for the usual elements and ready to contend at this one once again.
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One player to win the tournament outright at long odds
Beau Hossler (+7000 | FanDuel)
At this point, I suppose you’re just a sucker if you’re betting anyone at shorter than triple-digit odds. Prices for the first four winners of the PGA Tour season have varied between books, but we can agree that Chris Kirk (~200/1), Grayson Murray (~400/1), Nick Dunlap (~350/1) and Matthieu Pavon (~150/1) weren’t on too many radars prior to their victories.
I’ve written this in each of the last two weekly previews, but I’ll mean it more with each longshot winner that cashes: The public is hardly immune to recency bias, so we should expect more casual bettors to keep trying to hit those lottery tickets.
Now, this is the part of the column where I should remind everyone that each tournament is an instance unto itself, and one longshot doesn’t beget another, but we’re into uncharted waters with four in a row, so I’m sure as hell not going to talk anybody out of that Powerball mindset.
All of that said, there are fewer sleeper options in this 80-man field than we’ve seen in the previous few weeks, so I’ll stick with a medium-range longshot here in Beau Hossler, whom I’ve already written about multiple times this year.
Even before the calendar turned to January, I had Hossler pegged here in my OAD cheat sheet, based on the fact that he tends to play some of his best golf on the West Coast Swing, which includes results of solo third at this event two years ago and a tie for 11th last year. Throw in a tie for sixth at Torrey Pines this past week, and he should be primed to parlay this early inclusion into Signature Events based on his autumn performance into yet another leaderboard ascension.
Of those who have played for at least a few years on the PGA Tour already, he’d be somewhere in the top tier of those yet to claim a first career victory. I’ll keep trying him as long as he keeps knocking on the door.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am One & Done Picks
Potential selections for one-and-done pools
Viktor Hovland (+1300)
Look, I don’t really expect you to use Viktor Hovland in OADs this week. I’ll be honest: I probably won’t. We all want to save him for the Masters or The Open or another big-time event at a big ballpark.
That’s exactly why I’m listing him here, though.
This might be more for those with multiple entries, but if you’re looking to get contrarian – game theory suggests that’s how the bigger pools are won – this could be an excellent place to take a chance on one of the faves at what I’d imagine would be extremely low ownership. He tied for 13th here last year in his second career start at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500)
There’s a narrative around Matt Fitzpatrick which suggests that we should favor him at the tournaments where scoring is close in relation to par. That’s not wrong – and he’s even said as much.
There’s probably more to it, though. I’d extend this narrative to add that the Englishman enjoys a challenge, and while the winning total here has been between 17- and 19-under par over the past eight years, there are plenty of elements to offer the stiff test he prefers. He tied for sixth here two years ago – his lone finish better than 60th in four starts – but I like him for OADs and don’t mind him for an outright play.
Nick Taylor (+12000)
The other side of the Hovland contrarian concept above is to look beyond all the big names in a field filled with ‘em. While your fellow poolsters either overlap each other with a Spieth-like selection of a guy who traditionally plays Pebble anyway or takes a chance on an elite player who doesn’t, Nick Taylor might be the perfect zig to their zag.
His seven made cuts in nine starts include four top-25 results and a victory four years ago. He also tied for seventh at the Sony Open just a few weeks ago.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Placement Picks
Top Five
One player to finish in the top five
Justin Thomas (+500 for Top-five Finish)
It’s coming, folks. I know some of you might be sick of hearing that about Justin Thomas, who endured a below-average (by his standards) performance last season yet was given a spot on the Ryder Cup team anyway. But he now owns top-five finishes in each of his last four worldwide starts, including a tie for third at The AmEx when he played in the final group two weeks ago.
It doesn’t take an analytics expert to spot the difference. In his last five starts before this recent stretch, he uncharacteristically lost strokes with his irons every time. In these four, though, he’s gained on approach shots – and in three of the four, he gained more than a full stroke per round. Big things are coming for JT, and the crescendo just might come during major championship season, but I don’t want to overlook him before then.
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Top 10
One player to finish in the top 10
Russell Henley (+400 for Top-10 Finish)
When last we saw Russell Henley, he was finishing one shot out of a playoff at the Sony Open – a direct correlation to a balky putter down the stretch. That’s nothing new for Henley, who’s more of a hot-and-cold putter than a poor one, but there’s reason to bump him up a few notches on this week’s Poa Annua surfaces, which tend to level the dispersion between the best rock-rollers and everyone else.
His ball-striking remains impeccable, and the forecasted windy conditions could be right up his alley.
Top 20
One player to finish in the top 20
Mark Hubbard (+450 for Top-20 Finish)
How much does Pebble Beach mean to Mark Hubbard? Nine years ago, he proposed to his then-girlfriend just off the 18th green after finishing his first round. It took him another eight years to post his first top-20 finish at this event, which happened with a share for exactly 20th last year.
Coming off a finish last week of – you guessed it – a share of 20th place, this venue should suit his game much better than Torrey Pines, so here’s hoping for a result of at least one spot better, so we don’t have to go scurrying to figure out which books refuse to pay a full share for the chop.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Picks
DFS Free Bingo Square
A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups
Max Homa
Last week on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green,” I asked Max Homa if he starts licking his chops when the PGA Tour comes to his native West Coast, considering his success on that side of the country. I’m paraphrasing here, but he replied with something to the effect of, “Not to sound conceited, but I lick my chops every week because I know I can win out here.”
It was a great answer, but for prognostication purposes I’ll still favor him in the Pacific Time Zone. After a hot start to the final round at Torrey Pines, where it looked like the defending champion might post a number early, he wound up in a share of 13th place.
Before he stopped playing at Pebble three years ago, his last three results were 7th-14th-10th. If you start your lineups from the top and work your way down, I like plugging in Homa as a high-ceiling/high-floor selection.
DFS Mid-Tier
A medium-priced option for DFS lineups
Denny McCarthy
As I stated above in the section on Henley, Poa Annua tends to create less differential between good putters and bad putters. Denny McCarthy, though, is one of the game’s best putters, but he doesn’t seem to have too much trouble on these greens, finishing T4 and T12 the past two years.
His ball-striking has progressively improved in recent seasons, as it feels like we won’t be waiting too long for his initial PGA Tour victory. He’s another guy with a nice ceiling/floor combo.
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DFS ‘Dog
A lower-priced option for DFS lineups
J.J. Spaun
I tend to favor J.J. Spaun in both West Coast events and on short, tight courses – none of which helps explain why his record here started with four missed cuts before a T16 in his most recent appearance.
After missing the cut in his first two starts of the year, I’ll readily admit that this play isn’t for the faint of heart, but if you’re seeking a low-cost flier for GPPs, Spaun could pay off.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Misc. Picks
First-Round Leader
One player to post the low round Thursday
Alex Noren (+2800 to be FRL at Pebble Beach)
For the third consecutive week, first-round leader bets will be split between multiple courses – and for the third consecutive week, I’m writing this preview before tee times are announced, so we’re lacking some fairly critical information.
That said, Alex Noren is a player who’s feasted lately in opening rounds. In two starts so far this year, he’s posted scores of 66 and 62; in his final two starts of last year, he posted scores of 61 and 67. Some guys just prefer to step on the gas pedal right out of the gate, and that seems the case for Noren, whichever course he winds up starting on.
Matchup Man
One player who should beat comparable players
Keith Mitchell (+12000)
As detailed during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open, Keith Mitchell only got into this field due to a strong finish from his old high school buddy Stephan Jaeger. Now that he’s in, though, Mitchell should make some noise, as he finished T4 last year and T12 the previous year.
As I’ve written recently, he owns some of the same qualities as guys like Tony Finau and Gary Woodland, each of whom is a big hitter off the tee yet has seen some of his best results on shorter courses.
Also Receiving Votes
Other players who should provide value
Collin Morikawa (+2000), Tommy Fleetwood (+3500), Emiliano Grillo (+15000), Eric Cole (+5500), Sepp Straka (+9000) & Maverick McNealy (+15000).
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