Here's everything you need to know about 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions — our expert predictions and betting picks for the second Signature Event of the PGA Tour season.
All four winners so far this season have been at least 100-1, and that’s generally not the range that I am looking to bet. The good news is that we hit both of our top-20 bets (Beau Hossler, Taylor Montgomery) and secured a $110 profit this past weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open. The current bankroll now sits at $868.
We now turn our attention to the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This event has changed its format as it previously had a three-course rotation and a cut, but Monterey Peninsula Country Club is no longer in the rotation, which just leaves Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill. Golfers will play one course on Thursday and the other on Friday. The final two rounds will be held at Pebble Beach, and with only 80 golfers in the field, there's no cut this week.
Given that it is hosting three of the four rounds and that we have historical ShotLink data to work with from only this course, we will focus most of our attention on Pebble Beach. This track is a par-72 that measures fewer than 7,000 yards and features the smallest greens (3,500 average square feet) on the PGA Tour.
The fairways are quite wide in most landing areas, and there are a number of forced layups off the tee. Both courses in play this week feature Poa annua greens along with fairways and rough that are a Ryegrass and Poa annua mix. This is an event where we want to prioritize approach play and scrambling.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +$110
- Current bankroll: $868
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions
Outright Bets
Xander Schauffele to Win +1400 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $300
Schauffele was in contention last week at Torrey Pines but couldn’t seem to buy a putt on the weekend. He finished the week gaining 9.3 strokes from tee to green while losing 3.0 strokes putting. Nonetheless, the performance was still good enough for his third top-10 finish of the year.
He’s more known for his high floor than his ceiling but already has seven PGA Tour wins. He also doesn’t have a weakness in his game, which is why he plays so well on all types of courses. As a California native, the San Diego State Aztec is very familiar with putting on Poa annua greens and has a stellar track record at no-cut events.
Max Homa to Win +1800 (BetMGM)
Bet $20 to pay $380
Homa was a late bloomer in his professional career, but that hasn’t stopped him from racking up nine professional wins: six on the PGA Tour, one on the DP World Tour and two on the Korn Ferry Tour. It’s worth noting that four of those wins have come in California. He’s never won at Pebble Beach but has finished T7, T14 and T10 at this event in his last three appearances.
Similar to Schauffele, he’s strong in all aspects of his game. The incoming form is also solid after finishing in the top 15 at both The Sentry and the Farmers Insurance Open. Perhaps the next step in his quest for a major is to win a Signature Event this season.
Placement Bets
Justin Thomas Top 10 +250 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $70
I highly considered betting on JT to win this week and still may add him to the outright card before Thursday. I’m big on him this season and will be looking his way early and often to start the year. He was extremely motivated after a bad 2023 campaign and seems to have figured something out with his swing as he’s finished in the top five in each of his last four starts worldwide.
JT is also an ideal fit at Pebble Beach because his two biggest strengths are iron play and scrambling. The only negative is that he has only played this event once in his career. In a field of 80 golfers, I like his chances of finishing in the top 10 at +250 odds.
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Eric Cole Top 20 +190 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $58
Cole didn’t make my betting card last week, which was a rarity for the last six months. I trust him on any golf course where driving distance isn’t a prerequisite. Unfortunately, distance is imperative to contend at Torrey Pines. He missed the cut in La Jolla, which was the best case scenario for his odds this week.
Pebble Beach is a much better course for his skill set, as he’s among the top 25 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Around the Green and Putting. In his debut at this event last year, he finished in a tie for 15th. We are getting nearly 2-1 odds on a golfer who has finished in the top 20 in five of his last seven starts.
Brendon Todd Top 20 +250 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $70
And finally, we have Mr. Course Fit himself. Todd is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on Tour, he’s excellent around the greens, and he’s an elite putter.
More importantly, he’s made major strides with his approach play over the last 12 months. He has quietly made eight straight cuts, which shows his consistency. In his last eight starts at Pebble Beach, he has three top-10 finishes.
Good luck this week!
