Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PrizePicks for Thursday — our first-round plays for this week's PGA Tour event.
With the Farmers Insurance Open in the rearview mirror, we now look forward to this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in California. This unique event features a two-course rotation, as the golfers split the first two rounds between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill, while the remainder of the weekend is played solely on the former.
Below, I give out my 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PrizePicks for Thursday.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PrizePicks Thursday Plays
Max Homa: Less Than 69.5 Strokes
Strokes Gained: Putting is the most important metric to take into account at this venue, given the difficult Poa annua greens. Last season, three of the top-six finishers ranked seventh or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only metric in which that occurred.
That brings us to Max Homa, who went from middling Tour player to one of the world's best golfers in just a few short years. He has a well rounded game as he is strong throughout his bag, but his ability to putt on Poa annua greens separates him from the field this week.
He has six wins on Tour:
- 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
- 2023 Fortinet Championship
- 2022 Wells Fargo Championship
- 2022 Fortinet Championship
- 2021 The Genesis Invitational
- 2019 Wells Fargo Championship
Four of those six wins (all but the Wells Fargo Championships) occurred at tournaments contested on Poa annua greens.
Therefore, you shouldn't be surprised to hear that Homa has finished T14 or better in each of his past three appearances at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. I expect a big week from the California native, who always seems to up his game when playing in his home state.
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Jordan Spieth: More Than 0.0 Birdies or Better Matchup vs Cameron Young
Spieth has not lifted a trophy on Tour since 2022, but this could finally be the week where that changes. Even if it isn't, I expect him to play better than Cameron Young.
Spieth has always had a love-hate relationship with his putter, but he has momentum with the flatstick as he gained an impressive 1.67 True Strokes Putting at The Sentry en route to a third-place finish. He also will not be intimated by these Poa annua greens, given that he has won this tournament before (2017) and boasts three top-nine finishes over his past four appearances here.
Meanwhile, Young finished T33 at The Sentry and lost True Strokes Putting in the process. In fact, Young has lost true strokes putting in nine of his past 14 tournaments where ShotLink data is available.
Additionally, Young has never played at Spyglass Hill competitively, where he will tee off in the first round. This is regarded as one of the tougher courses on Tour, which will not bode well for him compared to Spieth, who has hoisted a trophy on these very grounds.
Jason Day: Less Than 71 Strokes
Jason Day, whom I also bet for first-round leader, is among those teeing off on Spyglass Hill and is my final PrizePicks play. Day has gained strokes on the greens thus far this season and finished last season ranked 37th on Tour in the same category.
With a strong putter, it is not shocking that Day has thrived at this venue. He has made all 13 cuts in his career at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a staggering eight top-seven finishes.
Day handles the Poa annua greens as well as anyone as he is also a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, a tournament that is contested at Torrey Pines South (a course that also features Poa annua greens). Finally, Day has shot 71 or lower in nine of his past 10 rounds on Tour.
