2024 Barracuda Championship Picks & Stableford Betting Preview
The PGA Tour features another alternate event this week as Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) hosts the 2024 Barracuda Championship. We were oh so close last week at the ISCO Championship when we bet Rico Hoey at 50-1, and although he would have won with a par on the 72nd hole, he made bogey and lost in a five-way playoff.
Let's bounce back with a winner this week in my 2024 Barracuda Championship Picks & Betting Preview!
This week, most of the golfers who did not travel to Royal Troon for The Open Championship will head to the Lake Tahoe area for the Barracuda Championship. Tahoe Mountain Club is a par-71 that plays at 7,480 yards in Truckee, California.
On paper that seems really long, but this course plays at elevation, so the ball will travel in the air with with more ease than usual. The players usually score anywhere from -15 to -20 over four rounds, but there is a much different scoring format this week with Stableford scoring.
Stableford scoring is only featured once per year on the PGA Tour. It encourages aggressive golf and will reward players who make a ton of birdies and sprinkle in some eagles. Normally, the ratio of birdie to bogey is 1:1, with each being one above or below par, but in the Stableford format, birdies and eagles will help far more than bogeys and double bogeys hurt.
Don't be surprised to see golfers bombing down extremely aggressive lines and firing at flags that may be tucked. Playing for par will get golfers lapped in this scoring format:
- Albatross +8
- Eagle +5
- Birdie +2
- Par 0
- Bogey -1
- Double or Worse -3
Find my 2024 Barracuda Championship picks below.
2024 Barracuda Championship Key Metrics
The key to success around Tahoe Mountain Club is playing from the fairway at a high rate and having a really solid week with the irons and wedges. Consequently, golfers like Chez Reavie and Collin Morikawa have found success here as they are the blueprint for tee-to-green precision.
The best iron players in this field will play very aggressively to tally up those birdie and eagle points. Whichever player is the best putter of these high-end ball-strikers will get the job done here.
Let's take a look below at some golfers who rate out well in these statistics and build a betting card to close it out.
Birdie or Better Percentage
Clearly, making birdies is important in any event but here they are worth double.
Eagle Rate
Personally, I am not really a fan of this stat because eagles are by no means predictable but in an event where the value of an eagle is six times the value of a par, we should take a look at who is making 3's on par 5's in this field.
Strokes Gained: Approach the Green
The best iron players in this field will be able to throw darts and be aggressive on these soft greens. If golfers are not hitting their irons close, they will put too much reliance on the putter.
Bounce Back Birdie Percentage
Bogeys are going to happen which we can live with. This stat will rate the best players who bounce back after making a mistake. I really like this stat for the week because it should really highlight some of the more aggressive players in this field. Below are the best players in terms of bounce back birdie percentage.
cuda model
1. killa keith🐶
2. dun🐘
T3. k yu☀️
T3. jj😎
T4. boog night🌊
T4. kelly k🐴
T4. svenny🇨🇦stats / info -> @RickRunGood
how i make models -> https://t.co/zBkxu1WCBB
model results -> https://t.co/Q4J4ivVcWf
— Matt Gannon (@matt_gannon_) July 16, 2024
Building a Betting Card
Building a betting card is the next step. As always, we will stick to a 7x ROI Card Construction Format. For example, we will act as if we have a $100 bankroll for this event and place all our bets to return $700. Here are my 2024 Barracuda Championship picks.
2024 Barracuda Championship Picks
Keith Mitchell +1800
$39 to win $700
Keith Mitchell is a birdie maker and is playing too well this season to not feel like the class of this field. Going to Mitchell at these odds may be jail-worthy, but I would only do it in this format.
I am not worried about him making mistakes because he simply makes so many birdies. He ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Birdie Percentage and eighth in Birdie or Better Percentage. His Total Driving prowess will allow him to get in position for eagle looks which will be massive in Stableford.
Look for Killa Keith to be in the mix come Sunday and finally capitalize on his elite ball-striking.
Nick Dunlap +3900
$18 to win $700
Nick Dunlap is another golfer who can make birdies in bunches but will throw in the occasional bogey to derail a round. In this format, that is not all bad.
Dunlap recently had a better number in a stronger field just a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic at +3700, and he knows how to win. Not many people would question this young man's talent to win twice in a year.
Adam Svensson +4000
$18 to win $700
40-1 is a great number for a golfer who is in a class above the majority of this field. Adam Svensson still has a ton to play for with the Presidents Cup being around the corner in his native Canada.
Svensson is a golfer who does his best work in easy scoring conditions and can get extremely hot with the irons. He will be playing from the fairway a ton and can make birdies in bunches.
J.J. Spaun +5500
$13 to win $700
J.J. Spaun has now gained strokes on approach in nine straight tournaments and has gained strokes putting in four straight.
He was in the mix a few weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and is clearly trending in the right direction. Spaun is a PGA Tour winner and a California native, so he should feel comfortable out here as he knows this is a massive chance to vault up in the standings given his form.
S.H. Kim +7500
$9 to win $700
S.H. Kim is an extremely volatile golfer who can make 20 birdies in a week and offset that with nine bogeys and a few doubles.
That will never win an event, but the blueprint is there for him this week if he can capitalize on his aggressive play. He will go at every flag and make his birdies, and if he can clean up just a few mistakes, he will be in business.
