2024 Black Desert Championship Round 4 Prediction
I talked on Links + Locks this week about how Stephan Jaeger and Harris English might be closing in on positive shifts with their performances.
Naturally, neither one made my pre-tournament outright card and instead got led by Ben Kohles, who faltered on Saturday to an even-par 71 to post the 56th-best score in round three to beat only nine players on the course.
It has been one of those weeks of frustration nearly across the board, but there are worse opportunities than taking a slight swing onJaeger at 4.5/1 over on BetRivers.
One of the items that interested me most about Jaeger's profile pre-event was how he experienced a top-10 shift in projected putting on pure Bentgrass greens compared to his baseline output for any other course.
That factor was a significant component for why I bet the German golfer during his only PGA Tour victory of his career at the Texas Children's Houston Open earlier in the year, and it has shown again this week through three rounds after gaining 2.88 with the flat stick (19th-best in the field).
There is a lot that can come into play on Sunday when you get a course that is delivering scoring in bunches. You likely need to be within six shots of our leader, Matthew McCarty (-19), if you want to capture this title.
Still, when you add the putting aspect that Jaeger is demonstrating with him landing as the only golfer in this field to gain strokes each round for driving and approach play, you get what I deem to be a generous price over on BetRivers if you are sitting on a card that has otherwise failed to live up to the billing.
Putting is typically the first area to fail a golfer on Sunday when the pressure ramps up. However, I do find solace that Jaeger ranks as one of only eight golfers this week who has gained strokes in all four critical metrics.
You are going to notice that Matthew McCarty and Harris English are sitting right there when talking about the names near the top of the leaderboard.
I do think we inevitably have one of those three win this title. Nonetheless, there is a lot of pressure on McCarty in his third PGA start of his career.
It doesn't mean he can't get himself across the finish line, but there is a certain consistency with Jaeger's profile compared to the other two that has me liking the small dart we can throw at +450 for him to get his second win of the year.
