2024 BMW Championship Data-Driven DFS Buys & Sells
$10,000+ Range
Buy: Collin Morikawa ($10,100)
I have had this conversation most weeks, including at the St. Jude Championship when I gave this answer about Hideki Matsuyama, but what I'm trying to find on these boards is always some combination of 1) a golfer who hasn't had his value decreased past the point of being bet-worthy after positing quality form (Hideki example), or 2) the flip side of that answer of someone who has received a boost in the market because of a poor performance or two (Morikawa/Aberg/etc).
It's funny because, as an industry, Morikawa has consistently rated as one of the top-owned players on the slate over the last few months. That viewpoint was never more prevalent than during the U.S. Open earlier this season after the American fell below the outright price we're getting on him in a 50-man field this week.
That was something that got further highlighted by an ownership percentage that placed him behind only Scottie Scheffler on the board.
I understand that I run my data for longer durations than pretty much anyone in the space, but examples like we have here with Morikawa show why short-term models will only tell part of the picture.
We could also discuss the flaws of overextending the data for outright bets because this isn't meant to be a Public Service Announcement about running your numbers for more rounds, but there's something to be said about the public jumping marginally off a player who didn't land worse than fourth throughout my entire model construction.
If the market wants to overreact to one poor ball-striking performance, I'm fine buying back in at what I consider to be value.
Sell: Viktor Hovland ($10,400)
I love the upside of Viktor Hovland this week, so I don't want this comment to be misconstrued, but we can be highly reactionary as an industry after one good performance from a superstar golfer.
My math has Hovland as a legitimate top-five win equity candidate in this field, which aligns with the pricing. However, when we look into his second-place result last weekend at the FedEx St. Jude, you'll see a price tag that was nearly $1,000 less expensive and featured sub-10 percent popularity on the board.
None of that suggests that Hovland doesn't have the upside marks to pay off this price, but let's not forget that we're talking about a golfer who has two top-10 finishes this season in 15 tournaments.
I lean in the direction that his outright number has lost all of its value in this 18/1 range after being 40/1+ last week, but even if we don't go down that route since the upside is prevalent, we still run into the DFS concerns of him being the second-highest owned player on the board at nearly 23%.
I'd rather pivot to cheaper options like Morikawa or Ludvig Aberg.
$9,000 Range
Buy: Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
I made this comment the other day, but it feels as if Patrick Cantlay has become the new-school Webb Simpson, where his course history travels with him better than pretty much any player on tour.
I know we have no history of anyone other than Adam Scott playing this course in competitive action, but there were a handful of "Comp Venues" that checked many boxes when trying to find corollary trends.
For direct outlooks, think Muirfield Village or Augusta National. You can also dive deeper into elevated locations played on tour, including venues such as TPC Summerlin and areas of that nature.
That viewpoint graded Cantlay first for secondary venues and second overall when taking all properties that fit the elevated location threshold.
You aren't going to get a discount of any kind, but his safety record of past course performances kept him roughly entrenched inside my player pool.
Sell: Wyndham Clark ($9,200)
As a Wyndham Clark whisperer and his number one fan, it pains me to have to do this week.
I understand the risk that this take possesses when every single betting card in the space has him featured as their top tip, but top-five ownership and a top-13 price tag is extensive for a golfer that doesn’t have anything better than a seventh in nine starts.
Sure, the recent form is percolating and showing form (which is why I have been backing him as a contrarian option over the past month), but the hometown narrative has put us in a position where he nearly has to win to warrant the price tag.
I will fade him in DFS because of all the troubling “Comp Course” grades within my model that placed him 49th overall and 39th when diving into only Jack Nicklaus layouts.
If it burns me, I'll live with the result since we are literally two weeks removed from any Clark pick recommended in the space being public enemy number one.
$8,000 Range
Buy: Spend Up
What exactly do I mean by that?
There are golfers that I like in section when we dive into Jason Day, Scott, Aaron Rai and Sahith Theegala, but my model did find that spending up for Sungjae Im or Russell Henley in the $9,000 range not only created better leverage but also increased upside of builds.
I will fit in those names I mentioned for this section near their projected ownership rates when building out 150 lineups, but I do prefer being more aggressive when finding myself only constructing a handful of builds.
Sell: Cameron Young ($8,500)
While Cameron Young is singled out in this article, I could easily pivot to a handful of additional choices, most of which are the names that I failed to mention when talking about the $8,000 golfers I'm backing in some capacity.
Young recent Strokes Gained: Total data has him 42nd in this field out of 50 golfers, and it's not as if we have seen success at Nicklaus properties in the past, an area he ranked 46th.
Maybe the driver can become a weapon at a course we know very little about, but this has mostly been a season to forget for the American.
$7,000 Range
I will split this section into two viewpoints since we need to consider varying degrees of ownership.
Popular Buy: Robert MacIntyre ($7,600)
I've been a big proponent of Robert MacIntyre being over-priced and over-owned during the last handful of contests. We can easily discuss that boom-or-bust nature of his game, but I thought this was the first week of playability since the outright we had on him at the Genesis Scottish Open.
MacIntyre ranked 10th in my model for Comp Courses, 12th in Recent Strokes Gained Total, 11th for Scrambling and second for Recent Putting.
The floor will always have concerns, but his upside is more of a player that should be $1,000 more expensive.
Contrarian Buy: Denny McCarthy ($7,400)
Here are the seven categories that I ran inside my model this week:
Weighted Strokes Gained Total (Projected Toward Castle Pines)
Recent Strokes Gained Total (Produced From Courses Played)
Weighted Comp Courses
Strokes Gained Nicklaus Courses
Similar Elevation
Weighted Scrambling
Weighted Scoring
Only nine players ended up grading inside the top 28 for each category, which gets limited to only Denny McCarthy if we removed anyone $8,000+.
Sell: Taylor Pendrith ($7,300) – Large-Field GPPs (Cash is fine)
You can see in the image below that the price is fair for Taylor Pendrith at $7,300 when comparing "Model Vs. DK Difference," but what I want everyone to look into is that "Ownership Vs. Model Rank."
If you want to use Pendrith for cash-game lineups, I have no issues with that route. However, I fail to see his usability for large-field GPP contests after ranking as one of the more substantial negative movers for upside.
$6,000 Range
Popular Buy: Will Zalatoris ($6,800)
I can't believe I am wagering real money on Will Zalatoris after fading him all season, but there were realistic ways to get him into the top 20 of my model when running the data a specific route.
At his best, this is a top-10 projected player for Comp Courses and Similar Elevation. At his worst, the back concerns could re-enter the picture. However, I will take him at face value that his back finally feels healthy.
We've witnessed a significant turnaround in his performance, particularly with his ball-striking, after two consecutive starts of gaining to the field.
If that continues, this price is way too cheap.
Contrarian Buy: Adam Hadwin ($6,200)
I know that the West Coast swing features more desert golf than mountain golf, but I was willing to ignore Adam Hadwin's recent form when we box in specific metrics that fit both examples.
My model ranked Hadwin 10th when faced with Similar Elevation, 16th for both Comp Courses and Nicklaus Scoring and 12th for Weighted Scoring.
If we can get him to generate one of those classic Las Vegas or Arizona results we are accustomed to from him when he takes on Colorado this week, it will come with virtually no ownership since the entire space looks to be out.
Sell: Cameron Davis ($6,200)
I know Cameron Davis has been known as a big-boy course golfer who tends to use his driving to find an advantage over the field. Still, the amount of danger at the facility, which features 10 water holes and multiple dog legs, worries me since Davis' skill set might not warrant any of the support he has garnered early in the week.
My model ranked Davis 49th for Strokes Gained Total At Direct Comp Courses, 41st in Recent Strokes Gained when diving into any venue and 48th lifetime at Nicklaus tracks.
