Let's dive into my 2024 BMW Championship first-round leader picks and everything you need to know — including my three Thursday FRL bets — for this week's PGA Tour event in Castle Rock, Colorado.
Castle Pines Golf Club will be the home of a Tour event for the first time since 2006 as it plays host to the BMW Championship. It is a par-72, 8,130-yard track designed by Jack Nicklaus. That distance can be misleading due to Colorado’s altitude as the adjusted course feel will play around 7,350 yards.
With that in mind, accuracy will play a far bigger role than distance this week, both due to the altitude as well as the abundance of hazards lining the course.
Tony Sartori's BMW Championship First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Tony Finau +2800 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Tony Finau has continually found himself toward the top of leaderboards this season, but has been unable to get over the hump. Finau has made the weekend in 11 of his past 12 tournaments with nine top-18 finishes over that stretch.
That is a remarkable stretch of golf that has not been properly rewarded, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been starting strong. Finau ranks 14th on Tour this season in Round 1 Scoring Average.
When you combine that stat with his inability to finish this season, I simply trust him more on a Thursday than I do on a Sunday right now. Finau has also typically thrived on Nicklaus courses, considering that he has made the weekend in seven of his eight career appearances at Muirfield with five top-13 finishes.
I believe Muirfield will be a good comparison for play this week. Not only is it another Nicklaus design that rewards accuracy, but this week's Director of Golf Course and Grounds, Scott Pavalko, held the same title at Muirfield for eight years.
Finau was the solo first round leader at Muirfield in 2020, so perhaps he can do so once again at another Nicklaus design this week.
Pick: Tony Finau +2800 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Corey Conners +3500 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 12:05 p.m. ET
In my opinion (and by most metrics), Corey Conners is a top-three ball striker on Tour. Conners has gained true strokes on the approach in 25 consecutive tournaments, which puts him in an elite class when it comes to iron and wedge play.
That alone is reason enough for optimism, but he also continues to flirt with winning seemingly every week. Conners has not missed a cut since June of last year, which is a stretch of 28 consecutive tournaments.
If you include the Olympics, he boasts 13 top-20 finishes over that span. However, Conners has not been closing, which is why I prefer backing him in the FRL market this week.
Furthermore, he ranks 12th on Tour this season in Round 1 Scoring Average.
Pick: Corey Conners +3500 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Alex Noren +5500 (FanDuel | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
Alex Noren is one of my favorite high-floor candidates in this field. I'm not sure he possesses the juice to take down the likes of Scottie and Xander on a Sunday, but I believe that he is capable of taking down the opening round.
Noren has typically been a stronger starter than finisher, ranking fourth on Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average. Subsequently, he has made the weekend in 20 of his past 23 tournaments, posting five top-10 finishes over that stretch.
The Swede is above the Tour average in driving accuracy and has gained true strokes on the approach in 12 of his past 15 tournaments, which is why I like his chances this week in the FRL market at 50-1.
Pick: Alex Noren +5500 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 BMW Championship, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks podcast:
- Xander Schauffele Outright Winner (+600 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Aaron Rai Outright Winner (+4500 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Adam Scott Outright Winner (+5500 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Shane Lowry Outright Winner (+7000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Robert MacIntyre Top 10 (+450 at BetRivers) – 0.24 Units
- Max Greyserman Top 10 (+550 at FanDuel1) – 0.23 Units
- Tony Finau FRL (+3000 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
- Corey Conners FRL (+3500 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
- Alex Noren FRL (+5000 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
