Two events are left in the PGA Tour season and the FedExCup Playoffs, and something stands out this week as we make our 2024 BMW Championship picks.
Castle Pines Golf Club is hosting this event in Colorado on a track that is more than 8,000 yards long. It's an incredibly unique course for the PGA Tour to choose for an event of this stature, the second last event of the season in the FedExCup Playoffs, but we are here for it.
Here's our full preview and BMW Championship picks betting preview.
Favorite We’re Backing
Matt Gannon: Collin Morikawa +1500
Tony Sartori: Xander Schauffele +600
Greg Waddell: Patrick Cantlay +2000
Spencer Aguiar: Collin Morikawa +1600
Best Long Shot
Matt Gannon: Taylor Pendrith +7000
Tony Sartori: Shane Lowry +7000
Greg Waddell: Sepp Straka +8000
Spencer Aguiar: Eric Cole +12500
Player To Fade
Matt Gannon: Viktor Hovland
Tony Sartori: Rory McIlroy
Greg Waddell: Rory McIlroy
Spencer Aguiar: Wyndham Clark: I don’t necessarily dislike Clark at the most basic level of this discussion, but top-five ownership and a top-13 price tag are extensive for a golfer who has nothing better than a seventh in nine starts. This hometown narrative has put us in a position where he nearly has to win to warrant all the marks. I will fade in DFS because of all the troubling “Comp Course” grades within my model.
BMW Championship Betting Strategy
Matt Gannon: I'm almost diminishing distance off the tee entirely here which is a very “against the grain” strategy. With the landing areas being fairly wide and everyone in the field having the ability to carry the ball 300 yards in the air, it will become more of an approach + putting contest.
Early in the week, this Nicklaus design is giving me eerily similar vibes to Valhalla. There are some forced layups off the tee and a ton of long irons into greens. From there, it becomes a test of who can roll the most 15-20 footers.
Tony Sartori: Castle Pines is a par-72, 8,130-yard track designed by Jack Nicklaus. That distance can be misleading due to Colorado’s altitude as the adjusted course feel will play around 7,350 yards.
With that in mind, accuracy will play a far bigger role than distance this week, both due to the altitude as well as the abundance of hazards lining the course.
Greg Waddell: Given the lack of value on the top two golfers on the board this week, it’s all about finding value within the secondary crop of “elite” players. Behind Scheffler and Schauffele, we are looking for a player with a history of success in the FedExCup Playoffs who's being overlooked by the oddsmakers.
The tier of Collin Morikawa (+1400), Patrick Cantlay (+2000) and Ludvig Aberg (+2000) catches my eye as a great trio of pre-tournament price points, especially when compared to Rory McIlroy (+1200) amidst his recent struggles.
Spencer Aguiar: You are going to see that 8,130-yard measurement of Castle Pines and immediately be drawn into the narrative that this is a bomb-and-gouge venue. Maybe that still ends up being the case since we have zero statistical data to pull from in this situation, but I thought the course shaped up to be this nuanced property that is going to reward a much more complete outlook from within the bag.
Numerous risk/reward holes will accentuate that mentality since 10 holes possess water danger. When you add that to blind tee shots, doglegs throughout and multiple-tiered greens that are expected to play exceptionally fast on the Stimpmeter, you get a venue that likely reduces the initial build of distance since the 6,300+ elevation total and a handful of downhill lies will turn this property into something that is probably closer to 7,200 to 7,400 yards.
BMW Championship Picks & Best Bets
Matt Gannon: Taylor Pendrith Top 10 +400
Pendrith has had a great season and it has been fueled by the elite iron play. He's a bomber at the core but has really found something with the irons in 2024 and has been striping them of late.
The last time Pendrith played an event in this state, he finished in a tie for third at the Colorado Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour. He's coming in with great form and should have good vibes heading back to Colorado.
I say 4-1 on a top 10 is a great number.
Tony Sartori: Robert MacIntyre Top 10 (+450)
MacIntyre just finished seventh at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, so why not bet on him to do so once again this week against an even smaller field?
MacIntyre has really heated up over the second half of the season, posting five top-10 finishes over his past 12 tournaments, which obviously makes +450 a profitable number by napkin math.
While this week features a tough field, MacIntyre fired off top-10 finishes at both the PGA Championship and last week’s aforementioned playoff event against equally tough competition. Therefore, in a 50-man field, I will gladly take a shot on him to do so once again at +450.
Greg Waddell: Patrick Cantlay Top 5 (+330)
I wrote about Cantlay to win as my early outright pick, but I’ll widen our chances a bit with a top-five bet at +330 to give us some leeway in the event that Xander Schauffele or Scottie Scheffler live up to their billing as true favorites.
Cantlay has won this event in two of the last three years, and he turned the corner nicely after a rocky Thursday at the St. Jude Championship, finishing with three stellar rounds en route to a 9th place finish.
In his past 36 FedEx Cup Playoffs rounds, Cantlay ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained. He is clutch and I expect him to contend late into Sunday.
Spencer Aguiar: Fades of Cam Davis
There are a handful of different ways to approach this throughout the market. I saw matchups featuring Adam Hadwin, J.T. Poston, and Eric Cole against the Aussie that all warranted consideration.
I know Davis has been known as a big-boy course golfer who tends to use his driving to find an advantage over the field. Still, the amount of danger at the facility, which features 10 water holes and multiple dog legs, worries me since Davis's skill set might not warrant any of the support he has garnered early in the week.
My model ranked Davis 49th for Strokes Gained Total At Direct Comp Courses, 41st in Recent Strokes Gained when diving into any venue and 48th lifetime at Nicklaus tracks.
The range of outcomes is a little wider here because of Davis’ high-end potential with the irons, but I will bet on the downside marks in matchup markets of any kind.
