And then there were 50.
Our staff of betting analysts have already made outright BMW Championship picks & predictions with the Tour Championship right around the corner. Only 30 will make it to Atlanta next week, and only one will make bettors happy this week.
Let's get into our staff's outright bets and picks.
2024 BMW Championship Picks & Predictions
Spencer Aguiar: Collin Morikawa +1500 (bet365)
I sit here on Monday morning with fear about the prospects of Xander Schauffele winning this title at lower than 7-1. There have been two other notable occasions this season where the American has topped my model (PGA Championship and Open Championship). However, the difference between those two occurrences and what we have this week comes down to price. There is a significant disparity between 15-1 and 6-1 when shopping for value and adding up exposure.
That concern about Schauffele winning will have me trying to create an extremely minimal risk profile this weekend at a course we haven't seen in action on the PGA Tour. Nonetheless, I will take what has turned into a boosted price on Collin Morikawa after the 27-year-old disappointed the betting and DFS communities at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Morikawa lost a staggering 4.7 shots ball-striking en route to his worst performance since the first week of April on the leaderboard. We have talked as an industry about his numerous close calls and enhanced recent short-game returns that have been eyeing getting back into the winner's circle, so consider this a number-grab on a golfer that would have been roughly 10-1 had we gotten a better showing from him to begin the playoffs.
As I always say, number-grabbing value is the only thing that matters long-term. Let’s not overreact to one subpar showing if books are going to enhance his price in the process.
Matt Gannon: Ludvig Aberg +2200 (FanDuel)
It is about time Aberg bucks up and gets a big boy win to jumpstart his career.
The young Swede did not have his best stuff last week in Memphis. The more you look into the numbers, though, the more you will see how a lot of his problems came from the short game areas. I'm pleased to see that Aberg hit the ball well enough to back this week because we know the short game can come back in an instant.
Also, I think we will see a score around 20-under or better for this week, and Aberg has done really well in those events.
It's only a matter of time until this stud breaks through for a big win, and this is a great spot for it. The fact that he has been seeing new golf courses for the last two years while the rest of the tour is used to the same tracks gives him a leg up in preparation for the week.
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Tony Sartori: Xander Schauffele +550 (DraftKings)
The Tour heads back to Castle Pines Golf Club for the first time since 2006. Being that this course is played in the Denver area, its length rests at a whopping 8,130 yards.
However, that distance can appear misleading due to the altitude and will play at roughly 7,350 yards. With this in mind, accuracy will play a far bigger role than distance this week, both due to the altitude and the abundance of hazards lining the course.
That brings us to Xander Schauffele, who has been one of the most well-rounded golfers over the past few months. He has finished inside the top 15 in eight consecutive tournaments, winning two major championships over that stretch while also finishing runner-up at the Wells Fargo Championship and in last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Schauffele has been more accurate off the tee than the field average in each of his past three tournaments when including the Olympics, and I think this success will continue on this Jack Nicklaus-designed track. He clearly likes Nicklaus’ work, considering that he has posted seven consecutive top-25 finishes at Muirfield.
Gred Waddell: Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
While Scheffler and Schauffele are deservedly sizable favorites this week, it’s hard to talk myself into either as the best value on the board, despite their torrid recent form. Instead, I'll turn to the name that would be third on my outright picks to win if all odds were equal, which returns some value given he is valued as the seventh favorite at most sportsbooks this week.
Cantlay’s history in the FedEx Playoff is well-documented at this point, winning the BMW Championship in both 2022 and 2023, but there are key statistical reasons to buy Cantlay this week in Colorado.
Cantlay ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: High Elevation in his last 30 rounds. He also ranks second (only behind Scheffler) in Strokes Gained on Nicklaus-designed courses.
Cantlay is always at his best at the end of the PGA Tour season, and he turned in three straight quality rounds at the FedEx St. Jude Championship after a slow start on Thursday to finish in a tie for ninth.
Going back to the playoffs, Cantlay ranks third overall in Strokes Gained over his past 36 FedEx Cup Playoffs rounds. And, most importantly, the value is on Cantlay comparatively to the other elite players this week.
