We got skunked at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. We had the right idea of fading the top golfers and focusing on the mid-range, but we didn’t have Hideki Matsuyama on the outright card. We only have two events left to get the bankroll above where we started this season, so we have some serious work to do. To accomplish this goal, this week’s $100 budget will be spent on only two golfers.
We have a new course in the BMW Championship rotation this week, as Castle Pines Golf Club will host a PGA TOUR event for the first time since 2006. The course is a Par 72 that measures 8,130 yards. This is officially the longest course ever on the PGA TOUR, but we have to keep in mind that the event is in Colorado and at 6,400 feet of elevation. The ball is going to travel a lot farther than most weeks, and the course will actually play closer to 7,400 yards.
The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and features narrow fairways (26-30 yards wide). We typically see his course designs benefit good ball strikers, especially good iron players. Hitting fairways could be a premium this week, as the rough is expected to be four inches thick. Golfers will see a mixture of tee shots, as there are blind shots, doglegs and elevation changes. The greens here are 5,600 square feet on average and feature a mix of bentgrass and poa annua.
Ultimately, we don’t know exactly how the course is going to play. Many will opt for the bomber strategy given the length of the course on the scorecard, but golfers can easily find trouble if they stray too far offline (water is in play on 10 of the 18 holes). It will also be tough to hit these greens in regulation if approach shots are coming from the thick rough. I’m focusing more of my attention on total driving, strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting. This is also a good time of year to place a bigger emphasis on recent form.
Two weeks left. Let’s find two winners.
2024 BMW Championship Predictions
Starting bankroll: $1,000
Last week: -$100
Current bankroll: $220
Patrick Cantlay
Outright +1800 (FanDuel): $20 to pay $380
Top 5 +360 (bet365): $30 to pay $138
Cantlay was on the betting card last week. While he didn’t win, he played great in the final three rounds. After an opening 72, he finished with rounds of 67, 66 and 66. As mentioned last week, the FedExCup Playoffs are typically when he plays his best golf each year. He won two playoff events in 2021 (including the TOUR Championship), he won the BMW Championship in 2022 and he finished runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last year.
Cantlay has underwhelmed by his standards in 2024, but he seems to have figured something out with his game, as he’s finished T5 or better in three of his last eight starts. He has gained 6.8 strokes off the tee in his last three events, he has gained strokes on approach in six straight events and his putter is finally starting to heat up. My thoughts on Cantlay haven’t changed since last week, so I will be going right back to the outright (+1800) and the top five (+360).
Tony Finau
Outright +3500 (Caesars): $20 to pay $720
Top 5 +550 (DraftKings): $30 to pay $195
Tony Finau… where he be now?! Shoutout to Chris Vernon for a line that will always be in my head when I hear or see the name Tony Finau. There are a lot of reasons to like Finau this week. For starters, he grew up in Utah and is very familiar with playing golf at elevation. While many will be uncomfortable trying to get used to the change in distances, he will feel right at home.
More importantly, Finau’s iron game has been as good as nearly anyone’s (third over the last 3 months, fourth over the last 12 months). We know most Nicklaus courses reward good iron play and Finau has gained at least 2.8 strokes on approach in seven straight events. He is underrated around the green and has flashed some form with the putter recently, gaining 8.1 strokes on the greens in his last five events. Finau has won a playoff event before (Northern Trust in 2021), so maybe he can add another one to his resume this week.
Good luck this week!
