2024 BMW Championship Round 4 DFS Picks
Buy: Brian Harman ($6,900)
We can move up and down this leaderboard to find another name, but Brian Harman is the only golfer in the field this week who has gained each day with both his off-the-tee and approach metrics.
That total places the American fourth when adding up his total ball striking up for the week. And that's before we get into him being one of just four golfers who has underachieved their expected output on the leaderboard over all three rounds, while also gaining strokes ball striking.
There may be more to Sahith Theegala and Harman's recent putting woes than meets the eye as each has been outside the top 25 of this field over their past 24 rounds. However, I don't want to discount that each was graded as one of the top 20 "expected putters" pre-events.
Theegala has his own problems after losing a staggering 9.67 strokes to the field with his flat stick (4.94 worse than the second name, Viktor Hovland), but Harman's rather flat nature does have the propensity to pop tomorrow if he can get hot early.
I will take the price tag rebate that we are getting on a golfer who sits 18th on the leaderboard.
Other Lower-Tiered Players I'll Have in my Pool: Denny McCarthy ($6,500), Chris Kirk ($6,400), Si Woo Kim ($7,400).
All of those names fit nicely with the high-end choices.
Fade: Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)
In Saturday's article, I talked a little about Akshay Bhatia being a prime blow-up candidate.
Bhatia lived up to that and finished with the third-worst total Saturday after firing a four-over 76. However, I'd still argue there is meat left on the bone for what he may give back on Sunday as he's lost strokes ball-striking all three days and for a total of -5.59 shots.
Here are the biggest overachievers on the leaderboard through three days:
Please note that this list removed any top-15 golfer in expected score and any golfer inside the top 15 for my head-to-head grade. While some of those names are due for regression, I don't want to punish the outlook of a name playing well.
One of the most significant takeaways from that list is that only Matthew Fitzpatrick has any semblance of DFS playability Sunday. I will find myself fading most of that list, so take note if you want to eliminate options from your own consideration.
Who Will Win the 2024 BMW Championship?
I struggled to find any value deeper down this board for two main reasons.
1) Options like Keegan Bradley and Adam Scott ended up grading as legitimate performers this week, ranking first and third in "Expected Scoring." I would not discount either of the two capturing the title.
2) Books massively skewed prices for Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark. That doesn't mean the duo won't find a way to win, but we got prices that were nearly cut in half from where they should have been. That caused a trickle-down effect on the board.
I am going to stick to my pre-tournament prediction of Ludvig Aberg because I don't see any value in trying to hedge that ticket, but I do think the winner will eventually be either Aberg, Bradley or Scott.
