We will dive into my BMW Championship statistical breakdown soon, but here are the 1-49 standings (Hideki Matsuyama withdrawal) for each of the four main statistical categories through the opening four rounds of the event.
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
One significant takeaway from that list is that only Ludvig Aberg, Si Woo Kim and Keegan Bradley are inside the top 20 of all four categories.
Rory McIlroy would get added if you allowed any form of putting (40th overall). You'd also get an onslaught of names when taking in worse around-the-green production. Options such as Taylor Pendrith, Corey Conners, Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa and Will Zalatoris all enter the mix. 
Baseline Putt + Around The Green Score
This category aims to merge actual ball-striking statistics with baseline short-game totals.
This is important is because it can highlight the players who are playing the best with their predictable numbers and are due for positive regression with the more volatile portions of their game.
Biggest Underachievers On The Leaderboard
Note: I only included players who should be inside the top half of the field.
Collin Morikawa returned to his ball-striking ways after an outlier showing last weekend at the St. Jude Championship, but has lost the narrative with his short game after a few months of dominating performances. I wouldn't say he is entirely out of contention, but it does feel like my outright card will rely on Ludvig Aberg winning if I want to be able to claim three straight winners.
Biggest Overachievers On The Leaderboard
We talk about this often, but the varying degrees of overachievement will tell more of the story than the rudimentary outlook of this section.
Is Adam Scott overachieving by 4.05 strokes more than any other player in the event? Yes. However, we still have a top-six output attached to his projection, making him one of the men to beat because of the overall production through two days. I don't necessarily think he is going to win as something still has to give marginally, but I don't want that profile to become a "fade" route as we are talking about someone who should be sixth on the leaderboard.
Who Will Win the 2024 BMW Championship?
I was fortunate enough to grab this at 27/1 pre-tournament, but my model does have Ludvig Aberg at the top of the chart when simulating the rest of the event.
Aberg has gained with his short game during both rounds this week, a nice perk for a golfer who was the top-ranked scorer for me at the Olympics if you gave him his baseline totals in that area versus the -7.43 strokes he dropped to the field.
We have been walking this fine line with options like Aberg and Morikawa all year, but my money remains on the Swede finally getting over the hump again for the first time this year.
