The host venue for the 2024 British Open, Royal Troon Golf Club, has experienced some minor changes from the last time it hosted this major championship in 2016.
Nine holes have brand-new tee boxes, which have added over 200 yards to Royal Troon. That distance is noteworthy since thick rough and fairway bunkers are one of the course's best defenses against the bomb-and-gouge mentality of modern technology. Players will experience a true one-stroke penalty for wayward drives off the tee, including gorse bushes that can come into play if golfers miss to the wrong angle.
That will highlight the importance of finding the shortgrass, but it is not as if a fairway lie is always perfect, either. Undulation comes into play throughout to accentuate this strategic links-style approach of correctly traversing a course from a thinking man's perspective.
Royal Troon doesn't necessarily make that straightforward when we dive into holes moving in all directions. One of the complexities that it adds is players will get different ball flights from hole to hole for a venue that is going to be naturally exposed to some predisposition of wind.
I don't see an extensive negative weather forecast for the week that goes past usual expectations, but no links-style course is ever completely removed from your random gusts, which is why my mentality for European tracks will always be the same for DFS when it comes to waiting as long as you can before locking in builds.
There are going to be a lot of trends you can point toward, such as the six consecutive winners at the venue who had been American since 1962 before Henrik Stenson's 2016 victory, or the winning score landing between 10 to 13-under in five of seven examples, once again including Stenson's outlier performance. However, my caution continues to go back to adding too much weight somewhere that may not be relevant anymore.
Instead, I thought it was much easier to model a blueprint that took known answers over the unknown expectations, such as how someone performs approaching into small green complexes or courses that have troublesome rough. There is more that goes into those categories than just the rudimentary expectation, but if you start taking the exact answers from prior years, I think you are creating something that is flawed in its production.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 British Open Data-Driven DFS Picks
British Open High-End Play
Xander Schauffele ($11,200)
We have had this conversation from the Masters all the way through the British Open. Xander Schauffele's perception in the market continues to be too low, even when the narrative should have changed after his PGA Championship victory.
I decided to bet Collin Morikawa in the outright market when comparing the two, but Schauffele looks like he will be 7-15 points lower in ownership compared to the other two top-end prices of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.
While my take on Morikawa has more to do with grabbing a price of 18-1 than anything else, I don't want those words to twist Schauffele's playability for DFS at reduced ownership. 51 consecutive made cuts place him int0 his own territory.
British Open Leverage Option
Cameron Smith ($8,900)
Billy Horschel was the only player in my model from $6,500+ who had better projected leverage than Cameron Smith.
Smith was a golfer I heavily faded at the U.S. Open in matchups throughout the week because of his poor Expected Off-the-Tee play in my model. I realize we don't get the ideal answer at Royal Troon either, but there was a significant difference between his projection of 129th at the U.S. Open for that metric versus climbing into the top 75 for Royal Troon.
I get it if you want to argue that a lack of consistency with the driver ruins his win equity. However, Smith still landed as a top-15 Projected Scorer this week when including the driver as a key stat while also carrying a second-place Comp Course Grade that featured a first-place Short-Game Expectation when combining Around-the-Green, Putting and Scrambling into one category.
Whether we are talking DFS or betting, this is an excellent buy-low spot after two disappointing finishes during majors.
British Open Good Chalk
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300)
A DFS discussion is different than an outright answer, but I will continue repeating the same words for Tommy Fleetwood that I have all week…
What you think Fleetwood's win equity is doesn't hold true when faced with one of these European-style Links courses.
His low-end $9,000 price tag is a rebate for all the reasons we have discussed so far this season for Schauffele when it comes to lack of perceived win equity. Let's try not to forget his seven European titles, which include going toe-to-toe and beating Dustin Johnson during the 2017 Abu Dhabi Championship and Rory McIlroy earlier this year at the 2024 Dubai Invitational.
A victory would be the cherry on top, but we don't need that much upside even at the price.
British Open Cheap Target
Louis Oosthuizen ($6,800)
Louis Oosthuizen was the big outright mover on Monday morning, shifting from within triple-digit territory to prices that have primarily settled in the 60s (you can find better if you shop around).
We have already talked about chalk I am playing in the section before this answer, but Oosthuizen fits multiple bills at the British Open because of his combination of form, Open Championship history and statistical profile.
The South African graded as the most incorrectly priced player from $6,100+. Maverick McNealy would be the first player to surpass that answer if we drop to $6,000.
British Open Dart Throw
Alex Noren ($7,200)
I thoughtAlex Noren's late addition into the field after qualifying through the Genesis Scottish Open got us a softer pricer in various iterations of the market than we would have had if he had already been in prior to last week.
My model didn't rank Noren worse than 23rd for any of the six main categories I ran, including a Comp Course answer of sixth and a Scrambling return of fourth when combining overall scrambling with a player's ability to scramble from out of the sand.
I know everyone here at Action Network has heard my impassioned pleas for Noren end in a whimper during past majors, but if nothing else, I am a resilient person who continues to stick to my beliefs.
Like all spots with Noren, this is a high-ceiling, low-floor outcome.
