2024 British Open Power Rankings

2024 British Open Power Rankings

The British Open at Royal Troon is finally here!

In honor of this being the 152nd Open Championship, I have ranked the 52 golfers I believe have the best chance of becoming the Champion Golfer of the Year this week in Scotland in my 2024 British Open Power Rankings.

I’m ranking golfers on how likely I believe they are to win this week at Royal Troon, so even though I believe Tommy Fleetwood has a better chance of finishing in the top 10/20/40 than Brooks Koepka, you will find Koepka higher than Fleetwood in these rankings because of my respect for the five-time major winner’s upside.

I’ve included more thoughts on each golfer in order to relay more information than simply outright betting advice.

I believe the British Open is the most “open” of all four majors because of the stiffer missed-fairway penalties with long and wispy rough, deep bunkers and out-of-bounds looming beyond the short grass. This means driving distance isn’t as important for my British Open Power Rankings as it was in the other three majors this year.

The longer days where everyone tees off the first hole from early in the morning until late in the afternoon mean that wave advantages not only exist but can also be extreme — like the last time The Open was held here in 2016.

Ten golfers in the morning wave shot in the 60s on Friday in 2016 before weather rolled in. Consequently, zero golfers in the afternoon wave broke 70. Both Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson were in that morning wave and separated themselves from the field in their epic performance.

Hitting fairways will be key this week, but length is always an advantage. Royal Troon has some of the smallest greens on The Open rota, so I’m also heavily weighing approach play this week and weighing lag putting and 3-Putt Avoidance less than I usually would at the British Open.

Since the Official World Golf Rankings don’t get the job done anymore, I have included the Data Golf Index (and rank) for each golfer to give you an idea of how well they are playing.

The DG Index value shows by how many strokes per round a golfer is expected to beat an average PGA Tour field.

I have also included the outright betting odds from bet365's Enhanced Win market as of Wednesday early afternoon.

These rankings, per Data Golf, “are determined by averaging the field strength-adjusted scores of each golfer, with recent rounds receiving more weight.”

Find my 2024 British Open Power Rankings below.

Tier 1 — Tiger Territory

1. Scottie Scheffler

• DG Index (Rank): 2.94 (1)
• Outright Odds: +550

By any measure, Scottie Scheffler has been head and shoulders the best golfer in the world in 2024, and he remains in his own tier entering the final major championship at Royal Troon. However, if he walks away with one major championship, it would almost feel like a disappointment that Scheffler didn't find a way to cement this historic season with another major.

He is among the top 10 on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (third), Approach the Green (first) and Around the Green (ninth) and has eliminated the only weakness in his game (putting) since he moved to a mallet putter 10 starts ago for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Since that switch, Scheffler has won six of 10 tournaments, including all five Signature Events and one of three majors. The only tournament in that span where he finished outside the top-eight was his T41 at the U.S. Open. He still ranked 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green but had a horrific putting week (which he attributed to struggling to read the greens at Pinehurst No. 2).

I’d be very surprised to see him absent from the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.

Tier 2 – Top Contenders

2. Rory McIlroy

• DG Index (Rank): 2.33 (3)
• Outright Odds: +800

Rory McIlroy enters in impeccable form as he has finished in a tie for 15th or better in each of his last seven starts, including two wins at the Wells Fargo Championship and in the two-man team event with Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

In his only start since falling just short at the U.S. Open, McIlroy tied for fourth at this weekend's Scottish Open.

He should feel very confident entering The Open, given that he has consistently been on the first page of the leaderboard in this major championship.

In his seven Open Championship starts since his win in 2014, McIlroy has five top-six finishes. He missed the 2015 British Open with an ankle injury, and the 2020 Open was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

He is one of the few golfers who may be able to overpower Royal Troon in the right and play on some more aggressive lines off the tee. That could help him to separate from the field, but McIlroy will also be a factor if he clubs down off the tee and maximizes his chances of playing from the fairway.

He should be an exciting watch because of his strategy choices off the tee and his recent heartbreak at Pinehurst No. 2 as he looks to win that elusive fifth major.

3. Xander Schauffele

• DG Index (Rank): 2.45 (2)
• Outright Odds: +1300

There’s a legitimate argument that Xander Schauffele should be second in these power rankings, given that he is second on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total at 2.241 per round in 2024 and that his 11 top-10 finishes rank second (both behind only Scheffler). No other golfer on Tour has more than seven top-10s.

He broke through to win his first major championship, but it somehow may still be mildly disappointing if he doesn’t at least finish this season with multiple wins.

He doesn’t have a weakness in his game and is well above the PGA Tour average in all four major Strokes Gained categories, as he ranks no lower than 28th in any of SG: Off the Tee (10th), Approach the Green (fifth), Around the Green (28th) and Putting (12th).

4. Bryson DeChambeau

• DG Index (Rank): 1.73 (6)
• Outright Odds: +1700

If there’s only one golfer I can watch this week (whom I haven’t bet on), it’s Bryson DeChambeau. Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson pounded fairways at Royal Troon in 2016 with 3-woods and irons off the tee when they ran away from the field the last time The Open was here.

It will be fascinating to see how Bryson plans his way around the course, and with multiple short par-4s on the first six holes, he should show his hand early on as he could get close to driving a few greens if the wind cooperates.

The reigning U.S. Open champion has only been beaten by six golfers in the three majors this year, tying for sixth at the Masters and finishing second at the PGA Championship. Can he continue his impressive play on a totally different links style?

He has one top-10 in six starts at The Open, which came in 2022 at the Old Course at St Andrews, which is a very different venue than Royal Troon because of Troon’s significantly smaller greens and more narrow fairways.

He’s my One & Done pick this week since the man I'm chasing in our smaller Action Network One & Done pool has already used him, and I only have so many opportunities to be different with just three larger purses remaining (this week and then the first two weeks of the FedExCup Playoffs).

5. Collin Morikawa

• DG Index (Rank): 2.04 (4)
• Outright Odds: +1700

Statistically, Collin Morikawa is playing the best golf of his career, but he has yet to win on the PGA Tour so far this season.

He is having his best season ever, by a wide margin, both with his putter and with his short game. After a relatively slow start to 2024 with his irons, he has heated up since the Masters. His game is firing on all cylinders, gaining strokes in all four major strokes gained statistics (Off the Tee, Approach the Green, Around the Green and Putting) in each of his last five starts.

Prior to this season, Morikawa had never gained strokes in all four major strokes gained statistics in just two consecutive events in his entire career, but he enters The Open having gained strokes across the board in a career-best five straight tournaments — including the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

6. Ludvig Åberg

• DG Index (Rank): 1.82 (5)
• Outright Odds: +1500

Ludvig Åberg ranks among the top-15 on the PGA Tour this season in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and SG: Approach the Green, so he can contend on any golf course. He could be a generational driver of the golf ball, and his power seems absolutely effortless.

His putting and short game rank 64th and 88th on Tour this season, and if they click for four rounds, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s outside of Scheffler.

One reason why Åberg is one of my favorite golfers on Tour is because he plays extremely fast. During Sunday's final round at the Genesis Scottish Open, he was visibly frustrated while waiting for Robert MacIntyre throughout the round and especially during his controversial drop from the rough.

Unfortunately for Åberg, he is paired with Tom Kim and Bryson DeChambeau in the first two rounds, and like MacIntyre, neither of those two plays very fast.

Tier 3 – Elite Golfers With a Key Question Mark

7. Jon Rahm

• DG Index (Rank): 1.67 (7)
• Outright Odds: +2400

After withdrawing from LIV Houston due to a foot infection, Jon Rahm wasn’t healthy enough to tee it up the following week at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

He bounced back with a tie for third at LIV Nashville before finishing in a tie for 10th this past weekend at Valderrama at LIV Andalucia.

The key for Rahm will be eliminating his left miss off the tee. The Spaniard plays a fade on the majority of his shots off the tee, but when his fade fails to peel into the fairway, it brings trouble into play. If he can manage that miss, he’ll be a factor on Sunday.

The two-time major winner has two top-three finishes in his last three British Open appearances.

8. Brooks Koepka

• DG Index (Rank): 0.79 (49)
• Outright Odds: +4500

Brooks Koepka’s advantages with his driver and long irons are typically less emphasized at British Opens compared to the other three majors. Perhaps his iron play can shine on these smaller greens at Royal Liverpool, though.

By his lofty standard, this major season has been a disappointment with no top-20 finishes, and his last two starts on LIV Golf since the U.S. Open have both been outside the top-25 in those 54-man fields.

However, if there’s anyone who can snap into form for a major championship, it’s the five-time major championship winner. I'm also willing to look past his results in non-majors more than anyone else in the field given his history, which is why he has the biggest difference between his DG Index ranking and my power ranking.

He has struggled with his putter throughout 2024, so much so that he switched to a mallet before returning to his gamer blade putter. Figuring the flatstick out is the biggest key for Koepka this week.

9. Patrick Cantlay

• DG Index (Rank): 1.63 (9)
• Outright Odds: +4500

Patrick Cantlay was having a mildly disappointing season before the U.S. Open and was overlooked heading into Pinehurst No. 2 when his outright betting odds dropped as far as 80-1.

His outright number remains longer than it should be. After discussing this with Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar on this week’s Links + Locks Open Championship Betting Preview, I am adding him to my card at 45-1.

He is fresh off of his first time contending at a major at the U.S. Open, and followed that up with a tie for fifth at the Travelers Championship. He doesn’t have a weakness in his bag, and just gained strokes in all four strokes gained categories in each of the last two tournaments.

Cantlay was an elite Total Driver of the ball last year as he was third in Total Driving in 2023 and fourth in SG: Off the Tee on the PGA Tour. However, he has fallen to 128th in Total Driving this season and 75th in SG: Off the Tee. If he can find the fairways with his driver this week, I love his chances.

There’s reason for optimism here because in his first 12 starts of 2024, he was at or above the field Driving Accuracy just twice. But he has reached the field-average Driving Accuracy in each of the last two starts, so maybe he is putting the pieces together with the big stick. These last two starts also included two of his top-four weeks of the year in terms of Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

10. Viktor Hovland

• DG Index (Rank): 1.47 (14)
• Outright Odds: +2800

Viktor Hovland made major strides last year with his short game. But he has given them back in 2024 as he has returned to being solidly below average around the green while losing strokes with his short game in 11 of 12 starts on the PGA Tour this season.

Nonetheless, Hovland’s combination of above average Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance have him 10th in SG: Off the Tee this season, and that combination always plays at majors, where missed-fairway penalties should be accentuated, especially at Royal Troon.

The Norwegian hasn’t been as consistent as in 2023, but his putting and approach play still have shown tremendous upside. Royal Troon’s smaller greens should emphasize his strength on approach if he is firing on all cylinders, but if he gets out of position, I don’t have much confidence that his short game will bail him out.

11. Tommy Fleetwood

• DG Index (Rank): 1.52 (11)
• Outright Odds: +2200

A links golf course like Royal Troon suits Fleetwood’s game perfectly because it enforces a steep missed-fairway penalty while emphasizing iron play with its small greens. The Englishman should leverage his Driving Accuracy (fifth on Tour at 70.18%) and strong iron play this week.

His Approach numbers on the PGA Tour are deflated this season because he had two of his better iron weeks in January on the DP World Tour, where he outlasted McIlroy to win the Dubai Invitational. He is also entering in strong ball-striking form after gaining with his irons in five straight events and off the tee in four straight.

His outright odds have been pummeled down to 22-1, which is a pass for me, but this may be his best chance at a major win given the course fit and his strong form.

12. Tony Finau

• DG Index (Rank): 1.53 (10)
• Outright Odds: +4500

Like Fleetwood just above and Tyrrell Hatton just below, I love the fit for Tony Finau this week at Royal Troon. The key difference between Finau and those two is that Finau is longer off the tee but much less reliable on the greens. The small greens this week will help limit Finau’s reliance on the flatstick and his relatively poor lag putting as he ranks 127th on Tour in 3-Putt Avoidance.

However, there is reason for optimism in Finau’s putting after struggling mightily to begin the year. He previously had the toe of his putter pointing toward the sky, but now it is much more flat on the ground, and the results have followed.

He enters having gained strokes putting in three straight events and boasts three consecutive top-eight finishes, highlighted by a tie for third at Pinehurst No. 2.

He ranks third on Approach this season on Tour and 15th around the greens, and if he can find enough fairways off the tee, I love his chances this week. Finau is still available at 50-1 in some places, and that’s my favorite outright on the board.

13. Tyrrell Hatton

• DG Index (Rank): 1.65 (8)
• Outright Odds: +2400

Hatton profiles very similarly to Fleetwood but is slightly longer off the tee than Fairway Jesus. He enters in great form with a win at LIV Nashville and a solo third at Valderrama this past weekend at LIV Andalucia since his tie for 26th at the U.S. Open.

Hatton doesn’t have a weakness in the bag, and this week’s Open Championship test should suit him well by lessening his lack of distance off the tee compared to the elite bombers ahead of him in these power rankings.

He has sharp odds at 24-1 that I’m not enthusiastic about betting, but I do believe they are fair.

His best Open Championship result came the last time The Open was played at Royal Troon when he tied for fifth in 2016.

Tier 4 — Midtier Contenders

14. Sahith Theegala

• DG Index (Rank): 1.20 (22)
• Outright Odds: 75-1

Sahith Theegala’s incredible feel could help him thrive in links golf. If he can avoid costly misses off the tee out of play, in gorse bushes or in penal bunkers, he may be able to get away with some inaccuracy off the tee this week.

His approach play has been significantly better than each of his first two seasons on the PGA Tour, and his game off the tee is also the best of his young career. He remains a strong putter, but his around-the-green game has statistically fallen off – even if he still passes the eye test and has gained strokes around the green in four straight events.

Theegala tied for fourth last week at the Scottish Open despite losing strokes to the field on Approach, and if he can improve there, I love his chances this week on the smaller greens at Royal Troon.

I have a futures bet on him to win this week at 100-1, but I don’t hate him at the current price of 75-1 after he was as low as 45-1 on Tuesday evening.

15. Sungjae Im

• DG Index (Rank): 1.37 (17)
• Outright Odds: 60-1

After a tie for fourth at this weekend’s Genesis Scottish Open, Sungjae Im has now finished in a tie for 12th or better in seven of his last nine PGA Tour events.

However, his only three missed cuts in his last 10 PGA Tour starts have all come at the three prior major championships this season.

Outside of not being long off the tee, the 26-year-old South Korean doesn’t have a weakness in his game and should have his best shot at his first top-15 at The Open Championship this week.

He barely lost strokes off the tee last week, but other than that, he has gained strokes in all four strokes gained categories over each of the last three tournaments. I see a lot of similarities in his game to Morikawa’s as they are both strong throughout the bag, lean more toward accuracy than distance off the tee and enter in great form, albeit without any wins on the PGA Tour this season.

I bet him to win The Open Championship during the Scottish Open at 75-1, and I still like his chances at the going rate of 60-1.

16. Corey Conners

• DG Index (Rank): 1.48 (13)
• Outright Odds: 80-1

Corey Conners is one of my favorite players to bet this week as I have tickets on him for a top-20 at +265 (with ties paid in full at BetMGM), along with an outright bet at 100-1 (I would bet down to 70-1).

His ball-striking has always been elite, and he is having the best season with his Approach play, per Data Golf, as he ranks fourth on Tour in SG: Approach the Green this season. He’s also 19th in Total Driving on Tour as he is above average in both distance and accuracy with the driver.

The Canadian's short game was poor to start the season, but he has shown signs of major improvement recently, as he has gained strokes around the green in five consecutive tournaments. He has finished in the top 30 in all five of those starts. He has gained strokes putting three times in that span, and all three of those tournaments resulted in top-10 finishes.

Not only has Conners gained strokes putting in three of the last five weeks after gaining with his putter in just four of the prior 13 tournaments, but he has also had his three best putting weeks of the season in these last five weeks, which has lifted his ceiling in my mind.

If his putter gets hot this week, I love his chances to win this week at Royal Troon at the going rate of 80-1.

17. Hideki Matsuyama

• DG Index (Rank): 15 (1.47)
• Outright Odds: 50-1

After being priced at 35-1 on bet365 to win The Open Championship last week, Matsuyama missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and has had his odds plummet to roughly 50-1 across the board.

However, he gained strokes Off the Tee, Approaching the Green and Around the Green last week but was sunk by his putter, which lost nearly five strokes to the field over the first two rounds as he missed the cut on the number.

He’s one of the first golfers to miss my card, although I do still have room and will be keeping an eye on him as the weather forecasts become more certain. He ranks out exceptionally from tee-to-green as he is fourth in SG: Tee to Green this season on the PGA Tour, which is highlighted by his short game that leads the Tour in SG: Around the Green.

The smaller greens this week should help limit the damage with his putter, but he will need to figure that out to contend or win.

18. Joaquin Niemann

• DG Index (Rank): 1.49 (12)
• Outright Odds: 60-1

The 25-year-old Chilean is still looking for his first top-15 finish in a major and has not finished in the top 50 in four starts at The Open Championship, but he undoubtedly can win this week because he is a well-rounded golfer with extreme upside with his irons and driver.

Just last year, Wyndham Clark won a major after failing to finish better than 75th in his first six major championship starts.

Niemann tied for 39th in his most recent major appearance at the PGA Championship, where he ranked seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green but was held down by a balky putter that ranked second worst in SG: Putting.

If that part of his game clicks, Niemann could absolutely be a factor this week after failing to qualify for the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

19. Tom Kim

• DG Index (Rank): 1.20 (23)
• Outright Odds: 45-1

With the exception of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Tom Kim’s iron play has been stellar recently, and his elite Driving Accuracy at 13th on the PGA Tour will also be rewarded at Royal Troon.

The 22-year-old tied for second at last year’s Open Championship at Royal Liverpool and won’t be afraid of the spotlight if he can find himself in contention, as he showed at the Travelers Championship just a few weeks ago in his duel with Scheffler.

If bombers have their length neutralized off the tee this week, Kim has a great chance to contend given his skill set.

He profiles similarly to players like Fleetwood, but his outright odds of 40-1 are still too steep for my liking.

20. Cameron Smith

• DG Index (Rank): 0.96 (36)
• Outright Odds: 50-1

When his putter is on, I believe Cameron Smith is the best putter in the world. The flatstick gets all the attention for the Aussie, but his short game is also elite.

He was barely above average both with his irons and driver at the Masters earlier this season, but Smith ranked second in Strokes Gained: Around the Green (behind only Scottie Scheffler, of course) and was seventh in SG: Putting as he used some smoke and mirrors to tie for sixth.

While I might think that recipe is unsustainable for the vast majority of golfers, it is undeniably possible that he replicates his success from 50 yards and in again. After all, that same recipe of a hot putter and strong short game helped him to lift the Claret Jug and become the Champion Golfer of the Year back in 2022 when St Andrews hosted The Open.

The difference between St Andrews and Royal Troon is that hitting fairways is much more important at Royal Troon, and the green complexes at Royal Troon are much smaller, which means fewer long putts.

I’m skeptical that Smith hits enough fairways this week to bet him at 50-1, but he has elite skills that can lead to a win anywhere.

21. Shane Lowry

• DG Index (Rank): 1.05 (31)
• Outright Odds: 40-1

Very quietly, Shane Lowry has finished in a tie for 21st or better in six of the last eight majors, as he has gained strokes Off the Tee in 11 consecutive majors while ranking at or above the field average in Driving Accuracy in all 11 of those starts.

The 37-year-old isn’t relatively long off the tee, but his upside everywhere else provides a game plan that has proven successful at The Open already (when he ran away from the field and won by six shots at Royal Portrush in 2019).

He has also gained strokes around the green in 10 of the last 11 majors. His irons still have a ton of upside, but his putter has been poor this season.

However, he has shown signs of life by having his two best putting weeks, by a mile, this season at the two most recent majors, including when he was second in SG: Putting at the PGA Championship.

Lowry has gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts after gaining with his putter in just three of his first nine tournaments of 2024.

22. Matthew Fitzpatrick

• DG Index (Rank): 1.04 (32)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick is having the worst season on both Approach and Around the Green in the last three years, per Data Golf.

He hasn’t contended for a win in 2024 either as he remains under the radar. The 2022 U.S. Open championship winner at The Country Club has all the tools to win but just needs to put the pieces together. He is coming off of one of his best putting weeks of the season and looks for his first finish better than a tie for 20th in The Open this week in his ninth start at this major.

The tougher conditions get this week, the more I like Fitzpatrick’s chances of winning, although I am not betting him in any markets this week.

23. Justin Thomas

• DG Index (Rank): 1.12 (28)
• Outright Odds: 80-1

Justin Thomas remains elite around the green (fifth in SG: Around the Green) and very solid with his irons (16th in SG: Approach), which give him winning upside at any course in the world.

However, the two-time major winner has ranked below the field average in Driving Accuracy in 13 of 15 tournaments in 2024, and his putting is among the worst of golfers in these power rankings as he ranks 154th in SG: Putting this season.

He showed a glimpse of his tantalizing upside this past Thursday at The Renaissance Club when he held the first-round lead after an eight-under 62. However, he lost strokes with his irons and putter in each of the next three rounds, per Data Golf, as he floundered and never broke par the rest of the week en route to finishing in a tie for 62nd.

Thomas’ putter may not have the necessary upside to win this week, given that he hasn’t gained more than 0.8 strokes per round with his putter in a tournament with four rounds of data all year.

24. Brian Harman

• DG Index (Rank): 1.26 (18)
• Outright Odds: 75-1

The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year hasn’t won since last year’s Open Championship but came incredibly close at an epic PLAYERS Championship this March when he finished tied for second.

If he can execute his typical game plan of peppering fairways, strong approach play and elite putting, The Open remains his best chance of adding to his major tally.

25. Aaron Rai

• DG Index (Rank): 1.26 (19)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

Aaron Rai shot a seven-under 63 in the final round on Sunday at the Scottish Open as he snuck into a tie for fourth and claimed a spot in The 152nd Open Championship as a result.

Golf fans should be happy that Rai is in the field because he is playing the best golf of his life, with three consecutive top-seven finishes and five straight top-20s, including a tie for 19th at Pinehurst No. 2.

That result tied his best result in his six career major championship starts, and The Open Championship should suit his game better than any other major because his Driving Accuracy will be rewarded more here.

If Rai’s newly improved putting remains an asset, he can pair his elite Driving Accuracy and iron play to a title contention this week – in a somewhat similar recipe to Harman’s Open Championship victory last year.

I have a 150-1 futures ticket on Rai for this week, but the current price of 65-1 is shorter than I’d like. I would bet him at 90-1 or better.

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26. Wyndham Clark

• DG Index (Rank): 1.16 (24)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

Wyndham Clark has been strong throughout the bag, although his biggest weakness is his lack of Driving Accuracy (he ranks 161st on Tour by hitting only 53.94% of his fairways this season).

He still hits the ball a mile, has a putter that can be the best in the world for 72 holes and is strong with his short game and irons. He can definitely win this week, although I believe The Open is his worst fit among the four majors, given the need to club down and hit fairways.

The 2023 U.S. Open winner hasn’t cracked the top 50 in a major this season and has tied for 33rd (2023) and 76th (2022) in his two prior Open Championships.

27. Cameron Young

• DG Index (Rank): 0.93 (40)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

Cameron Young has reminded golf fans of his potential in recent weeks when he shot a 59 at the Travelers Championship.

However, it also was tough to watch the 27-year-old shoot himself in the foot the following week when he was in contention on the back nine of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and broke his driver shaft out of frustration.

He has tons of upside with his driver and irons, and if he can catch fire with the putter that he shifted to right before back-to-back top-10 finishes, he can undoubtedly capture his first PGA Tour win in style this week at Royal Troon.

The Wake Forest product is known for bombing it off the tee, but his two best finishes on the PGA Tour in 2024 came at the Valspar Championship (solo second) and Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches (tie for fourth), which are both club-down courses where accuracy is prioritized off the tee over distance.

No matter if he is hitting drivers or irons off the tee, he should have a great chance at success this week, but he has some mental hurdles to clear as well.

28. Robert MacIntyre

• DG Index (Rank): 0.65 (59)
• Outright Odds: 32-1

Big Bob has been ballin' out lately.

His approach play really caught my attention at this weekend’s Genesis Scottish Open as he was fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.

This is significant because MacIntyre ranks 54th or better in terms of SG: Off the Tee (38th), Around the Green (54th) and Putting (53rd), all well above the PGA Tour average. However, entering his home game at the Scottish Open, MacIntyre ranked 118th in SG: Approach the Green as he was losing an average of 0.110 strokes to the field per round with his irons.

If he can continue his hot iron play with his strengths throughout the rest of the bag, he can absolutely win in a variety of conditions this weekend. His driver has been increasingly accurate lately, which is significant because he has always been relatively much longer than straight off the tee.

His putter also has the elite upside that it can lead the field on any given week, which Harman showed last year can lead to a successful Champion Golfer of the Year recipe.

I think his outright price is inflated given his lack of elite iron play relative to others below 50-1, but MacIntyre has shown that he can win over the last two months. The only time this season he gained more than 1.1 strokes per round with his putter, he gained 2.79 per round with the flatstick in Canada and won.

The only time he has gained more than a stroke per round with his irons over four days, he gained 1.42 per round at the Scottish Open this past weekend and won. He hasn’t played a ton of great golf this year, but he has capitalized on his chances, and winning is a legitimate skill in golf.

By the way, Big Bob is lower in these power rankings, but I would absolutely have him in my top-five golfers in this field to grab a pint with. He did, after all, forego a guaranteed paycheck at a Signature Event to celebrate his win at the RBC Canadian Open back home in Scotland.

After winning his homeland’s Scottish Open this weekend, he noted that he might need to reschedule his Monday press conference at Royal Troon.

29. Louis Oosthuizen

• DG Index (Rank): 1.14 (27)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

Casual golf fans may not have thought much about Louis Oosthuizen recently, but sharp bettors have. His outright odds have been pummeled down from about 100-1 last week to 65-1 now, and he enters his first major championship appearance of 2024 in good form.

The 2010 Champion Golfer of the Year won twice in consecutive weeks on the DP World Tour in December and has three top-four finishes on LIV Golf, including a tie for fourth this past weekend at Valderrama.

The 41-year-old remains strong throughout the bag with his only weakness being his below-average Driving Distance, but he knows how to get it done in major championships, especially on positional links courses.

If I can find him in a matchup and back him against a potential fade candidate, I’ll be ready.

Tier 5 – Darkhorses and Struggling Stars

30. Russell Henley

• DG Index (Rank): 1.44 (16)
• Outright Odds: 120-1

Russell Henley hasn’t contended since the second week of the season at the Sony Open in Hawaii, but he has quietly been doing Russell Henley things — like wear out the center stripe of the fairway and flush his irons consistently.

He has been above the field-average Driving Accuracy in 14 of 15 tournaments this season and was just 1% below the field average in his other start, as he ranks 10th on Tour in Driving Accuracy at 68.95%.

His upside off the tee is limited by his lack of length, but if accuracy is prioritized over distance this week, he can win like Harman did last year.

Henley’s putting stats are the best they have been in seven years, and his short game is also around a career best. If he gets on a heater with his irons, he’s a sneaky play to win this week.

I targeted him in a more conservative way by backing him for a top-20 finish at BetMGM at +120 with ties paid in full.

31. Akshay Bhatia

• DG Index (Rank): 1.14 (26)
• Outright Odds: 100-1

This is Akshay Bhatia’s first start in The Open Championship, and I also believe it is his first start ever in Europe. While he will need to adjust to this new style, Bhatia’s upside remains tantalizing.

Per Data Golf, he has improved Off the Tee, Approaching the Green, Around the Green and Putting since last season as the budding 22-year-old has won twice on the PGA Tour in the last 12 months.

He nearly added to that total in his last start when he settled for a tie for second after three-putting the 72nd hole and falling a shot out of a playoff with Cam Davis – after he had a birdie putt to win the event minutes before.

His putter has made a major transformation from a crippling weakness at 183rd in SG: Putting in 2023 to a strength at 29th in SG: Putting in 2024. Combine this with his upside with his irons, and Bhatia is live to win at any golf course in the world.

He has also been at least 7% above the field average in Driving Accuracy in each of his last six starts, and if he can continue to put himself in position off the tee, he is talented enough to be the rare golfer who may thrive in his links golf debut in The Open.

I took a shot on his upside and bet him at 150-1 to win this week.

32. Davis Thompson

• DG Index (Rank): 1.21 (21)
• Outright Odds: 110-1

25-year-old Davis Thompson is coming off of his first made cut at a major championship in his fourth major start, where he tied for ninth at Pinehurst No. 2 in the 2024 U.S. Open.

He followed that up with a tie for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a win by four shots at the John Deere Classic before finishing in a tie for 46th at the Scottish Open.

Last week’s Scottish Open was the first time Thompson teed the ball up east of the Atlantic Ocean as a professional, and I expect him to go through some growing pains in his first Open Championship as he adjusts to links golf.

Nonetheless, I had an outright ticket on him at the John Deere Classic and have been bullish on him for the last few months as he remains uber talented and has upside throughout his bag. He may be a year or two away from being in position to thrive on links courses, but like Bhatia above, he has the talent to win this week.

24-year-old Morikawa won in his first Open Championship start in 2021 at Royal St. George’s, so winning without experience can be done – although I wouldn’t quite put Thompson in Morikawa’s weight class yet.

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33. Si Woo Kim

• DG Index (Rank): 1.05 (30)
• Outright Odds: 120-1

Si Woo Kim pounds fairways, aggressively fires at pins with his irons and thrives around the greens. If putting wasn’t a part of golf, he’d be much higher in these power rankings, but unfortunately for the youngest winner in THE PLAYERS Championship history, he has to uncover the flatstick on most holes.

His appearance at the Scottish Open gave glimpses of his upside, as he finished with an eight-under final round to tie for 26th as he only gained strokes with his putter on Sunday. If he can stay hot on the greens, anything over 100-1 will be a steal, and perhaps he just needed some time to adjust to these slower greens in Scotland.

I have a top-20 bet on Kim at +350 and I am hoping he stays confident with the putter after he cashed a 60th or better and a top-40 for me at The Renaissance Club this past weekend.

34. Adam Scott

• DG Index (Rank): 1.09 (29)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

This past week on the Links + Locks podcast, Nick Bretwisch led the discussion on Adam Scott and why he has more upside than many might expect, even despite a lack of top-10 finishes in 2024 (his only top-10 was a T8 at the WM Phoenix Open in February).

Scott is statistically strong throughout the bag, but for whatever reason, he had yet to put the pieces together before this weekend’s Genesis Scottish Open.

The 43-year-old remains above average in all four major strokes gained categories, although he is elite at none. He still has the necessary upside in all four of those facets of the game to win on any given week, so he remains among the top-50 golfers this week despite not claiming a victory since the 2020 Genesis Invitational at Riviera.

After his odds were around 90-1 to win The Open at this time last week, they have shrunk to the no-bet zone at 65-1.

35. Min Woo Lee

• DG Index (Rank): 0.88 (42)
• Outright Odds: 55-1

Min Woo Lee has the “it factor.”

He leads the PGA Tour in Ball Speed and also has an absolutely filthy short game as he is prone to transform into his alter ego, Dr. Chipinsky, at any time around the green.

His putter is strong too, and if his irons can improve, he can become a top-five player in the world. I don’t trust his iron play yet, as he has gained more than a shot per round over four rounds just once on Approach this season, but if he can figure that out, he has potential to win this week — just like MacIntyre did in Scotland this weekend.

The Australian is one of the more overpriced golfers in the outright market, but I’m also wary of fading him in a matchup because of his upside.

He is a past winner of the Scottish Open and loves to smash his driving iron, which both could help him feel comfortable this week in his fourth Open Championship. He may be a year or two early like Bhatia and Thompson, but outside of DeChambeau, there may not be anyone more fun to watch this week than the Chef.

36. Alex Noren

• DG Index (Rank): 0.99 (33)
• Outright Odds: 100-1

42-year-old Alex Noren is playing some of the best golf of his career right now as he has been a top-25 machine with 10 top 25s in his last 13 starts. He also has four top-25 finishes in his last five Open Championships and played here at Royal Troon back in 2016 when he tied for 46th.

His driver is the main question mark this week as he isn’t long and isn’t elite at hitting fairways, although he hits more than average. That may not be enough to win this week, but I took a nibble on a future for him to win at 150-1 about a month ago anyway.

He was seventh in the field with his irons at the PGA Championship, and he has a puncher’s chance at the best major for his game this week because of that iron play.

37. Sam Burns

• DG Index (Rank): 1.14 (25)
• Outright Odds: 120-1

In his 16th and most recent major championship start, Sam Burns recorded his first top-15 finish in a major when he tied for ninth last month at the U.S. Open.

He is above average throughout the bag, although he hasn’t been as elite with his putter or irons as in past years. He may still have some learning to do when it comes to links golf, but Burns oozes upside because the putter can be special.

The five-time PGA Tour winner does not have a top-40 finish in three prior Open Championships, but he could be a sneaky top-20 play at +275 with ties paid in full at BetMGM.

38. Max Homa

• DG Index (Rank): 0.82 (46)
• Outright Odds: 120-1

Max Homa recorded his first top-10 finish in a major championship last year at The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool and followed that up with a tie for third at the following major earlier this year at Augusta National.

However, he doesn’t have a top-five finish since then and has finished outside the top 60 in four of his last five starts.

He can absolutely win because of his upside throughout his bag, but his form entering this week leaves some cause for concern, and consequently, I’d play him for a top 10 or outright win or not at all, depending on how far he falls down the odds board.

I did bet him last week at 75-1 at the Scottish Open, but I’m wary of wasting precious room on my card with too many out of form golfers. His driver, in particular, is worrisome given that he is usually one of the longer drivers on Tour, but his lack of distance in recent events is surprising – and maybe there’s an injury that is playing a role in this.

Prior to the Scottish Open, Homa ranked below the field-average Driving Distance in four straight tournaments. In his prior 12 events this season, he ranked below the field-average Driving Distance just once.

He also ended 2023 by ranking above the field-average Driving Distance in each of his last 13 events, so I find it puzzling that Homa’s distance has seemingly fallen off out of nowhere.

39. Jordan Spieth

• DG Index (Rank): 0.67 (57)
• Outright Odds: 65-1

Jordan Spieth is an enigma.

What is the status of his wrist injury? Will he ever be an elite approach player again in his career?

While Spieth is having his second-worst season with his irons since he joined the Tour in 2013 (and his worst since 2019), he also ranked sixth in SG: Approach in the last major.

He’s also driving the ball as well as he ever has in his career, so if he can pair a hot putter with that upside with his irons, he can still win.

However, Spieth has had major issues with different parts of his game nearly every week over the last few months, which is why he doesn’t have a top-25 finish in his last 11 starts dating back to his tie for 10th at the Valero Texas Open in April.

His feel and driving give him a ton of upside, but the 2017 Open Champion has a low floor and one of the widest ranges of outcomes in this field.

I faded Spieth by betting Harman in a matchup over him at -120 odds.

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Tier 6 – Longshots

40. Sepp Straka

• DG Index (Rank): 0.91 (41)
• Outright Odds: 110-1

Sepp Straka is much more accurate than long off the tee, thrives with his approach play and can get hot on the greens.

This was a winning recipe for Harman last year, although the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year has a considerably stronger short game than the Austrian.

If Straka can manage his way around the greens, the rest of his game has enough upside to win. He finished in a tie for second just last year at Royal Liverpool when he was second in the field in SG: Approach (behind only Young).

Par-5 Scoring will be critical, but the Ox ranks poorly at 165th in Par-5 Birdie or Better Percentage (40.63%) and a nearly identical 164th in Par-5 Scoring Average (4.69) on the PGA Tour this season.

41. Byeong Hun An

• DG Index (Rank): 0.86 (45)
• Outright Odds: 175-1

In nine appearances at The Open Championship Byeong Ben An has yet to record a top-20 finish.

However, his two most recent appearances have resulted in top-26 results, and the 32-year-old is playing the best golf of his career.

He’s a bomber who is strong from tee to green and has improved his putting immensely with the broomstick – even if he is just about an average putter now. He was on the Korn Ferry Tour just two years ago but now is 11th in the FedExCup Standings.

His top-10 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T8) and the Wells Fargo Championship (solo third) show that he can compete with the toughest tests on Tour, but his putter will need to hit its ceiling for him to win this week.

42. Jason Day

• DG Index (Rank): 0.86 (45)
• Outright Odds: 110-1

Jason Day is still respectably long off the tee and remains elite with both his short game and putting. The missing ingredient for the Australian major champion is his approach play.

Day has averaged over one stroke per round gained on approach in a tournament with four rounds of data just once since the beginning of 2023 — and he won that tournament. It was the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, where he gained 1.37 strokes per round on approach, per Data Golf.

The small greens at Royal Troon that put an emphasis on approach play mean that this may not be the best golf course on the Open rota for the Australian, but if his irons get hot, watch out.

43. Dean Burmester

• DG Index (Rank): 0.82 (47)
• Outright Odds: 140-1

A 35-year-old making just his 10th major start of his career, Dean Burmester's two best finishes in major championships have come in his last four starts — his tie for 12th at this year’s PGA Championship and a tie for 11th at St Andrews in the 2022 Open Championship.

Those finishes both came at bombers’ paradises, but Burmester is playing the best golf of his career and has tons of experience playing in Europe, so I’m including him here in my top 52.

His iron play at the PGA Championship stood out when he gained five shots with his irons for the week, which ranked 13th in the field, per Data Golf.

His ball-striking with incredible length off the tee gives him upside, and he has already found the winner’s circle three times in the past year: twice in the fall in South Africa on the DP World Tour — against some weaker fields, but he won each tournament by exactly three shots — and at LIV Miami in April.

44. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

• DG Index (Rank): 1.25 (20)
• Outright Odds: 175-1

Like many other shorter hitters in this field, The Open is Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s best chance of winning a major each year.

He enters playing by far the best golf of his career, as his approach play and driving are both better than ever. His putting and around-the-green play are also above average. If distance isn’t too big of an anchor weighing down his game, he could shock the masses this week if his putter gets hot.

There's some cause for concern for Bezuidenhout after he was forced to withdraw from last week’s Scottish Open after injuring his wrist in a bunker.

The man who grew up being more worried about talking after winning golf tournaments because of a speech impediment than worrying about his game could be a heartwarming story this week.

45. Denny McCarthy

• DG Index (Rank): 0.96 (37)
• Outright Odds: 275-1

Like Cameron Smith, Denny McCarthy has a valid case for being the best putter on the planet, and that — along with his short game — gives him upside.

McCarthy’s back-nine 28 to come from out of nowhere to jump into a playoff on Sunday at TPC San Antonio is maybe the most impressive nine-hole stretch of golf I've seen this season, but he hasn’t flashed much with his irons since then. He’s also short off the tee and loses ground with his driver more often than not, but he can absolutely catch a heater and contend.

Both of the last two Open Championship winners relied heavily on their putters, but that may be tougher on these smaller greens this week.

46. Keegan Bradley

• DG Index (Rank): 0.99 (35)
• Outright Odds: 225-1

The newest U.S. Ryder Cup Captain has missed the cut in each of the last four British Opens, but he has a strong all-around statistical profile. He's a quality total driver — although not elite — and his irons can still get scorching hot.

His putter also enters with momentum, as he has gained strokes putting in four straight events. If golfers are forced to play more positionally this week, that plays right into Keegan Bradley's hands.

47. Matthieu Pavon

• DG Index (Rank): 0.35 (91)
• Outright Odds: 250-1

Matthieu Pavon is the lowest-ranked player by the Data Golf Index in my British Open Power Rankings because when he's playing poorly, the wheels can fall all the way off — like when he didn't break 75 in the first two rounds of the PGA Championship.

However, when Pavon is on, he has shown in his rookie season that he has immense upside, like when he followed that missed cut at the PGA Championship with a solo fifth at the U.S. Open.

He also has a win at Torrey Pines earlier this season, outlasting a bunch of bombers.

He isn't long off the tee, but his irons and putter can lead the field on any given week.

48. Dustin Johnson

• DG Index (Rank): 0.43 (79)
• Outright Odds: 175-1

Dustin Johnson enters in poor form so far in 2024, but he can still absolutely win given his immense talent. He has a win at LIV Las Vegas in February and also has top-10 finishes in two of the last three Open Championships.

He was a factor just last year at the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club as well.

Adam Scott showed off this past week at the Scottish Open that he still has also the tools to contend and win on the PGA Tour, and I believe DJ is in a similar position.

Plus, I expect him to be more motivated for this major than the LIV Golf events, which I believe is relevant.

Seeing the two-time major winner at 175-1 is jarring, although I think betting him in the top-10 or top-20 market at +1100 or +425 is the way to go if you want to back DJ because he's a high-upside/low-floor golfer this week.

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49. Tom Hoge

• DG Index (Rank): 0.99 (34)
• Outright Odds: 200-1

Tom Hoge's elite skill is undoubtedly his approach play, as he ranks second on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.

His short game is below average, but if he putts well and hits fairways, the hit short game won't be that important given his elite iron play.

These small greens at Royal Troon may be his best chance at winning a British Open.

50. Harris English

• DG Index (Rank): 0.75 (53)
• Outright Odds: 225-1

Harris English is decent throughout the bag but has the ability to lead the field in putting on any given week. That can make up for his lack of elite distance off the tee.

He has played some of his best golf on the toughest PGA Tour golf courses over the last two years, so he has a chance to win if the stars align and he benefits from a wave advantage.

I also believe he has more upside with his irons than he has shown so far this season.

51. Will Zalatoris

• DG Index (Rank): 0.43 (80)
• Outright Odds: 200-1

It has been frustrating to see Will Zalatoris struggle this season following a back injury that sidelined him for the majority of 2023.

He has lost distance off the tee and ball speed as he changed his swing to limit side bend so that he puts less stress on his back.

However, his distance started to come back in recent weeks, and when I broadcasted the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago, my analyst Dennis Paulson noted that Zalatoris had reverted to more side bend in his swing.

Unfortunately, Zalatoris ended up withdrawing from the Rocket Mortgage Classic after he felt something “pop” in his hip — although he noted that it was on his “good” side instead of the one where his back surgery was more impactful.

With nine consecutive finishes outside of the top 40, there isn’t a ton of optimism that he can make it through four rounds, but I have too much respect for Zalatoris’ upside not to include him here as long as he's in the field.

His putting and short game limit his upside, but his ball-striking has tons of potential if his body allows it.

If I can find a matchup with someone safe against him, I’ll be ready to pounce. I have faded him the majority of this year and will continue to do so until his ball speed gets back up to the 180 miles per hour range.

52. Maverick McNealy

• DG Index (Rank): 0.63 (62)
• Outright Odds: 300-1

Maverick McNealy's irons need to improve from his results this season if he wants to contend, but he's sneaky long off the tee and has the potential to lead the field with his short game or putter.

This is just his second British Open appearance, and he's looking for his first top-20 in a major this week. His driver and short game are both at career bests this season, so this may be a favorable spot for the former Stanford Cardinal.