2024 British Open Predictions & Royal Troon Course Preview
We manifested a win at the last major by hitting Bryson DeChambeau to win at the U.S. Open, so let’s do the same at the year’s final major, the 2024 British Open at the Old Course at Royal Troon.
The last time The Open Championship was held at Royal Troon was in 2016 when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson lapped the field and put on an epic Sunday battle. In the end, Stenson at 20-under went too low for Mickelson at 17-under to catch him. Those scores are quite misleading when it comes to the difficulty of the course, as the next best score was J.B. Holmes at six-under.
The Old Course at Royal Troon is a par-71 that measures 7,385 yards. It is a true links course with several holes right on the coast. Like most links courses in this part of the world, the difficulty of the course hinges on the weather. Like most other British Open courses, it can play easy if the wind is calm, but it can also play extremely difficult if wind gusts get up over 20 miles per hour.
The current forecast (as of Tuesday) calls for 20+ MPH gusts on Thursday, Friday and Saturday at the British Open. Weather can change on a dime in Scotland, so this is something to keep an eye on for your handicapping throughout the week.
As DeChambeau said in an interview this week, Royal Troon isn’t a golf course that can be overpowered off the tee. The name of the game here is avoiding trouble off the tee. The fairways are littered with pot bunkers — many will essentially be a one-shot penalty — and golfers will also have to deal with high fescue and gorse bushes if they stray too far offline.
This doesn’t mean the longer hitters can’t succeed here, but it certainly brings the shorter hitters into the fold.
Since 2014, 55% of Masters, PGA and U.S. Open winners have ranked in the top-ten that week in driving distance.
None of the last 8 Open Champions have.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 16, 2024
The greens at Royal Troon are extremely small, especially on the historic 8th hole, which is known as the postage stamp. We can expect a fairly low Greens in Regulation rate for the field this week, which magnifies the importance of approach play and scrambling.
Leaning on golfers with experience on links courses and experience in The Open Championship is a solid strategy as well. This feels like the most open major of the year when it comes to picking the winner.
Find my 2024 British Open predictions below!
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +/- $-45
- Current bankroll: $414
First look at the Postage Stamp this week 👀
120 yards, playing into the prevailing wind. pic.twitter.com/sNj20Phxak
— Jamie Kennedy (@jamierkennedy) July 15, 2024
2024 British Open Predictions
Xander Schauffele
Outright +1300 (bet365) | Top 5 (ties included) +275 (BetMGM)
$10 to pay $140 | $10 to pay $37
Outside of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele is having the best year of anyone on the PGA Tour. He already has 11 top-10 finishes this season and has only finished outside of the top 25 one time.
Schauffele won his first major championship at the PGA Championship at Valhalla, so he should be a lot more comfortable when he’s in the mix at future majors. He’s one of the best in the field when it comes to Strokes Gained per round at the majors over the last five years and in Strokes Gained per round on links courses over the last 10 years.
He’s a much better putter than Scheffler and doesn’t have the same amount of scar tissue as Rory McIlroy, who has let three majors slip between his fingers in the last couple of years.
Hideki Matsuyama
Outright +5000 (BetMGM) | Top 10 +425 (bet365)
$10 to pay $510 | $10 to pay $52
Hideki Matsuyama checked the box on every betting trend that I could find this week, and for reference, there were only four golfers in the field to accomplish this.
While Matsuyama missed the cut last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, he gained 4.7 strokes on the field from tee to green, and we can forgive him for one awful week with the putter.
He’s quietly put together an excellent season, picking up a win at Riviera in The Genesis Invitational and posting four top-10 finishes in his last nine starts. He’s has an up-and-down history at the British Open throughout his career but is currently second on the PGA Tour in Scrambling this season.
He tied for 13th at the British Open last year and is coming into this major championship in much better form.
Tommy Fleetwood
Top 10 +240 (bet365) | Top 20 +110 (bet365)
$10 to pay $34 | $10 to pay $21
My heart wanted to bet Tommy Fleetwood this week, but my brain has been doing this long enough to know that he’s unlikely to win. The Englishman will make a run at some point on Saturday or Sunday and get everyone excited, but he won’t get the breaks he needs to win his first major (and his first PGA Tour event).
In order to avoid more heartbreak, I am only betting Fleetwood to finish in the top 10 and the top 20. Over the last five years, nobody has gained more strokes per round at the British Open than one “Tommy Long Locks.” He struggled on Sunday at the Scottish Open but has still finished in a tie for 21st or better in seven of his last 10 starts.
This course requires precision and scrambling, which are two attributes that Fleetwood has in spades.
Tyrrell Hatton
Top 10 +260 (bet365) | Top 20 +120 (bet365)
$10 to pay $36 | $10 to pay $22
I’m likely only sticking with two outrights this week but could be talked into adding Tyrrell Hatton. He was in contention at the PGA Championship before an awful Sunday that dropped him to a tie for 26th.
Since then, he has picked up a win and a third-place finish on LIV. He’s one of the few golfers in the field who is regularly positive in all four of the Strokes Gained categories. He’s a strong Total Driver of the ball, he’s solid on Approach, he’s excellent Around the Green, and he excels at Putting.
Hatton seems to be getting more comfortable in majors and has always had success on links courses. I love the incoming form and the course fit.
Corey Conners
Top 40 -105 (bet365)
$20 to pay $39
This will easily be my biggest bet of the week in terms of actual dollars in play. Corey Conners hasn’t missed a cut since last June and has finished in a tie for 44th or better in 16 straight events.
I understand that this is a links course and that we have a full field, but how are we getting -105 odds on this?
Conners is top 10 in this field in Total Driving, Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation. His short game is always a question mark, but he has quietly gained strokes putting in four straight events.
He has consistently played quality golf at the British Open, after finishing in the top 30 at this event in two of the last three years.
