The golf world heads to McKinney, Texas for the 2024 Byron Nelson as Jason Day looks to defend. Let's get into our 2024 Byron Nelson best bets & expert picks.
Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have expert picks as 156 golfers will clash for the title this week.
TPC Craig Ranch in the Dallas area hosts again this week and is a 7,414-yard par-71 course designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004.
Here's everything you need to know, along with our Byron Nelson best bets and expert picks for the weekend.
2024 Byron Nelson Best Bets & Expert Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Beau Hossler +100 Over Ben Griffin (DraftKings)
If you tune into our Links + Locks Byron Nelson Betting Preview this week (dropping early Wednesday), you will hear a different best bet from me on that show. As always, shop around and see if you have that wager available.
That said, I will give everyone a secondary peek into my card for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson and talk a little about Beau Hossler +100 over Ben Griffin on DraftKings in a tournament matchup.
When diving into his course-specific fit for TPC Craig Ranch, my model had concerns about Griffin's profile. Most of Griffin's upside will typically arise from his ability to avoid bogeys and gain to the field with his flatstick.
However, that narrative exited stage left because this is a birdie-making tournament where Griffin projects as one of the most significant fallers when comparing his baseline putting to projected returns on medium-to-fast Bentgrass greens.
None of that suggests that Hossler has the kind of safety you would hope to see on the opposite end of this wager, but matchups are all about finding fade candidates to take on in the space. There were very few options that my model wanted to oppose more than Griffin when running the data.
Nick Bretwisch: Matti Schmid Top 20 +350 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)
Matti Schmid fits the profile of almost everything that I am looking for in a golfer at TPC Craig Ranch. My only issue with him is his incredibly shaky short-game metrics.
If he can have a mediocre short-game week, his distance off the tee with the wet forecast coming should give him a significant advantage to work with mid irons as the majority of the field will need to play from outside of 215 yards.
He’s a top-tier expected ball-striker for my model this week and has plenty of upside with the five top-30 finishes in his past six events.
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Matt Gannon: Ryo Hisatsune Top 20 +350 (DraftKings)
Ryo Hisatsune has a great chance to finish in the top 20 this week because of his upside with his irons and putter, although his putter has been relatively cold lately, which is why I'm targeting him for a top 20 instead of an outright win.
He is a young Japanese talent who is not the longest off the tee but should have no problem hitting greens at a high rate with his mid or long irons. I am not sure he has the putting upside to find contention on a course like this where the expected winning score will be extremely low, but his ball-striking should be solid enough to hover in and around the top 20 all week.
Even if he is putting poorly, he will hit enough greens to get through the cut and finish inside this number.
Tony Sartori: Ben Griffin Top 10 +700 (FanDuel)
I'm buying low here on Ben Griffin after he missed the cut in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in the PGA Tour's two-man team event. This is part of the reason why we are catching him at 7-1 in the top-10 market.
However, prior to the Zurich Classic, Griffin made the weekend in 16 of his prior 20 tournaments, with three top-10 finishes. You would be profitable blindly betting him at 7-1 over that stretch, and we have to keep in mind that the field this week is much more watered down compared to a usual week on Tour.
Griffin has had positive Strokes Gained: Total numbers in each of his past five individual tournaments where ShotLink data is available and has done so with a well-rounded game. The only question mark in Griffin’s bag is his driver, but that club isn't imperative to succeed at TPC Craig Ranch — just ask S.Y. Noh, who shot a first-round 60 (-11) here last year as he gained 9.21 shots to the field despite losing 0.23 strokes off the tee.
2024 Byron Nelson Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Stephan Jaeger +3500
- Bretwisch: Min Woo Lee +3000
- Gannon: Sungjae Im +2800
- Sartori: Min Woo Lee +3000
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: Adam Schenk +4000
- Bretwisch: Stephan Jaeger +3500
- Gannon: Keith Mitchell +4500
- Sartori: Thomas Detry +4000
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Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Peter Kuest 100-1
- Bretwisch: Matti Schmid 100-1
- Gannon: Sam Stevens 90-1
- Sartori: Ben Griffin 80-1
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Ryo Hisatsune 160-1
- Bretwisch: Tom Hoge +3000
- Gannon: Tom Hoge +3000
- Sartori: Jordan Spieth +1700
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Adam Schenk +4000
- Bretwisch: Adam Schenk +4000
- Gannon: Byeong-Hun An +2700
- Sartori: Matti Schmid 100-1
Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 Byron Nelson
Aguiar: TPC Craig Ranch is a venue that demands a very straightforward requirement of all players teeing it up this week, even if we only have three iterations of the contest with data.
The most effective strategy I could find was to leverage the course-specific characteristics. That would be items such as Bentgrass Putting and Strokes Gained: TPC Properties. There is also a highly correlated trend of distance at all levels that you can pull heavily from for the week.
That is going to make separating models a little more challenging since the requirements are pronounced and help books out, but the field averages 12 yards more off the tee with a driver in hand because of the wide-open setup of the track and delivers over a 35% distribution of approach shots from outside 200 yards — a stat that landed nearly 13% above the PGA Tour average.
Gannon: Don’t be scared to take it low this week!
TPC Craig Ranch will not do the best job of separating the best ball-strikers in the field. With the greens being on the larger and softer side, anyone in this field can heat up with the putter. This is a week to embrace variance and take that stab at the longshot you have a hunch on. The key stats to dial in on are Strokes Gained: Approach and Spike Putting. Outside of that, any longshot who has shown some form is live in an event like this.
Sartori: TPC Craig Ranch is a relatively easy track for the Tour, and there are multiple ways to score here. I typically look for strong ball-strikers, but at this tournament, golfers can score pretty easily as long as they are strong in at least one key area of the game, whether that be ball-striking, putting or scrambling.
With that said, I’m looking for golfers with well-rounded play recently who are positive in Strokes Gained: Total. This tournament should play pretty wide open with lots of low scores, so I want to take a chance on the golfers with high floors who will at minimum be in the conversation come Sunday.
