Everything is bigger in Texas…unless we are talking about this watered-down field and lack of long-term data since the track has only been in the PGA Tour rotation for three seasons and features minimalistic requirements to find success.
The most effective strategy I found was to leverage the course-specific characteristics. Metrics such as Bentgrass Putting, Strokes Gained: TPC Courses and Weighted Scoring took on a more significant weight in my model than usual.
TPC Craig Ranch also produced highly correlated returns of distance at all levels after diving into the field averaging 12 yards more with a driver in hand because of the track's wide-open setup and 35% distribution of approach shots from outside 200 yards—a stat that landed nearly 13% above the PGA Tour average.
A lot of those answers did cause books to be cautious in their approach by creating a higher hold percentage in the outright sector, but that is something we can discuss further in this week's article.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pretournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Byron Nelson Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks 2024 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview podcast.
2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Biggest Market Movers
We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.
My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but we have seen some rather strong shifts in that 20-1 to 50-1 section.
Golfers like Tom Hoge, Adam Schenk, Si Woo Kim, Mackenzie Hughes, Byeong Hun An, Stephan Jaeger and Seamus Power have all recorded between a 9% and 25% decrease in price on the odds board. Most of those moves are checking out throughout the sharper books in the market outside of Power, something my model tends to agree with when we remove Power, Si Woo Kim and Hughes from that range.
Those three options do worry me marginally because of their capped ceilings in my model when diving into their projected implied probabilities at their new totals.
We will get to a handful of those previous names in a second when we talk about my actual outright card. However, I continue to believe Ryo Hisatsune is more name recognition and stature as an elite young golfer than he is someone in form.
My model placed the 21-year-old 117th from an overall rank perspective because of his combination of shaky form and questionable data after ranking 139th for Expected Putting on similar green complexes, 137th for Weighted Strokes Gained Total at TPC Craig Ranch, 124th when taking on a TPC track of any kind and 129th for Expected Total Driving when faced with wide-open fairways that have no rough.
These are some of the reasons I took a juicy plus number on Garrick Higgo against him when it opened at +121.
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2024 Byron Nelson Worst Current Values
I talked about why I liked Beau Hossler +100 over Ben Griffin at DraftKings in a tournament matchup in Action's Byron Nelson Best Bets article.
2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Outright Picks
Stephan Jaeger 33-1
Best In The Market Now: 33-1 (bet365)
My model ranked Stephan Jaeger first for pure upside when removing his floor outcome. It also saw him climb to first in Weighted Scoring for TPC Craig Ranch.
I understand it is hard to win on the PGA Tour twice in four starts unless you are Scottie Scheffler, but it has to count for something that Jaeger is the only person to dethrone the American in a tournament since March.
I'd be comfortable playing this price down to 28-1, although you don't need to worry about that if you have access to bet365.
Tom Hoge 35-1
Best In The Market Now: 32-1 (bet365)
I mentioned this on Links + Locks, but I am starting to worry that Tom Hoge is becoming too trendy for a golfer with a negative trajectory in his profile for win equity.
My math loved Hoge's Weighted Iron Proximity from all ranges, an area of the field where he ranked first. Nonetheless, it is going to come down to the lack of high-end marks in my model outside of his birdie-making and iron play when comparing it to his concerning driver.
It's been a recurring theme this week from me that elite iron play or strong driving is crucial for success at TPC Craig Ranch. That was one of the reasons why I chose to highlight the best golfer in this proximity sector, as well as our next contender, a name who possesses a stellar driving profile, reminiscent of how Jason Day triumphed here last year.
Keith Mitchell 40-1
Best In The Market Now: 45-1 (bet365)
It does feel like Keith Mitchell would be the better option to consider between Hoge and himself after the market drifted the Georgia Bulldog back from 40-1 to 45-1.
Mitchell's Weighted Total Driving and Weighted Scoring still will carry elite upside for a golfer who can make putts in spurts on Bentgrass. It is something my model picked up on this week since it saw very little difference between Hoge and Mitchell, especially now that their prices have altered from their opening lines.
Adam Schenk 50-1
Best In The Market Now: 40-1 (BetMGM)
I thought this was probably the best pure value on the board when I wrote about it at Action Network on Monday. We have seen the market slowly agree with that sentiment after dipping as much as 30% at certain locations in the space.
Schenk's recent surge of three top-19 finishes over his past five starts should show us an in-form golfer, which makes his third-place rank when combining Weighted Proximity from 200+, Expected Total Driving, and Strokes Gained: Bentgrass that much more encouraging.
That third-place total landed him behind only our defending champion, Jason Day, and my favorite flier of the week, Peter Kuest.
Peter Kuest 100-1
Best In The Market Now:80-1 (BetMGM)
This reminds me a little of when Corey Conners won the Valero Texas Open a handful of years ago at 250-1. The price won't be as generous in the outright sector this time, but I will take a swing in Texas on a golfer who essentially broke my model.
I always try to hand-regress some of these totals when you get outlier top-10 viewpoints on a player who doesn't have a ton of data to pull from on the season, but the reason I didn't for this situation stemmed from me having a nice sample size of numbers to extract from Kuest dating back to last year.
My model thought if the 25-year-old had received a full-time card at the end of 2023, he would have landed as a top-50 player on Tour. Unfortunately, he didn't get that luxury and has had to fight his way to attract more official starts.
Let's not have that punish his true upside here because Kuest isn't your typical longshot wager.
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Best In The Market Now:110-1 (bet365)
I know the recent driving data leaves a ton to be desired, but as I keep saying during all these shows and podcasts, not all courses are made equally. Some venues will be more desirable than others, and we get that here for Higgo after ranking inside the top-20 win-equity candidates at a 125-1 price tag.
Take a look at Higgo over Ryo Hisatsune in the head-to-head sector if you haven't already.
My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices
- Jordan Spieth +1600
- Stephan Jaeger +3000
- Adam Scott +2500
- Sungjae Im +2800
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
A lot of my pre-tournament outright prices have moved, although we still have a ton of value to be found if you want to throw a few darts down this board.
