Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Byron Nelson first-round leader picks — our expert's three FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in McKinney, Texas.
With the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Byron Nelson in the greater Dallas area. TPC Craig Ranch hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2021.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par-71, 7,414-yard track designed by Tom Weiskopf that features Bentgrass greens and is relatively easy to score on.
Find my 2024 Byron Nelson first-round leader picks below.
2024 Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Usually, my strategy for targeting first-round leaders is looking for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. However, the weather calls for rain and wind throughout the day on Thursday, and I don't think either wave will have any advantage over the other.
Adam Scott +4000 (bet365 | 0.17 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:55 p.m. ET
That brings us to Adam Scott. Although Scott hasn't been winning events, he has been competing well and is more than capable of taking down this weaker field in any round.
Entering this week in good form, Scott has gained strokes in seven of his past eight PGA Tour events, finishing inside the top 20 in five of those seven outings. He should carry that momentum into TPC Craig Ranch, a course where he finished eighth last year.
Strong form, a quality track record at the venue and a weak field is a winning recipe for success for the former Masters champion and 14-time PGA Tour winner on Thursday.
Sungjae Im +4500 (bet365 | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:45 a.m. ET
The next golfer I want to target in the FRL market is Sungjae Im, who just went over to South Korea and won an event on the Korean Tour. While he didn't face the stiffest competition, a win can only help mentally moving forward.
Winning a professional golf tournament anywhere, despite the level of competition for a PGA Tour golfer, won't hurt him. I think Im went over there to just see one tournament go his way as he has struggled for the most part in 2024.
With that said, he finished 12th at the RBC Heritage just before that win in Korea, and that performance at Hilton Head in a Signature Event was against far tougher competition than what he will face this week. Combine that with his win over in Korea, and perhaps the 26-year-old is returning to the form we are typically accustomed to.
Stephan Jaeger +4500 (FanDuel | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:44 p.m. ET
Our final FRL target this week is Stephan Jaeger, who should be eager to return to the great state of Texas as he won in his last start in the Lone Star State just a few weeks ago at the Texas Children's Houston Open. He heads to a different venue this week in TPC Craig Ranch, but he also has had success at this track.
Jaeger finished 38th in his first appearance here in 2022 and improved upon that with an 11th-place finish last season. We know what we are getting from Jaeger in terms of his golf game: he is going to hit the ball far and follow that up with strong approach play and a quality short game.
The questions start to emerge once Jaeger is actually on the greens, but this course is easy to play, and knocking shots tight will help with his flatstick. While he hasn't been the most consistent putter, Jaeger has upside on the greens as he gained over six shots with his putter in his Houston Open win.
Jaeger should be able to get away with just mediocre putting at this venue, and if that club isn't holding him back, then he should have no issue flying up this leaderboard.
Here's my full betting card for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Tom Hoge Outright Winner (+3300 at BetMGM) – 0.36 Units
- Min Woo Lee Outright Winner (+3300 at BetMGM) – 0.33 Units
- Thomas Detry Outright Winner (+4000 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Davis Thompson Outright Winner (+7000 at Caesars) – 0.27 Units
- Ben Griffin Top 10 (+700 at FanDuel) – 0.24 Units
- Matti Schmid Top 10 (+900 at FanDuel) – 0.20 Units
- Adam Scott FRL (+4000 at bet365) – 0.17 Units
- Sungjae Im FRL (+4500 at bet365) – 0.14 Units
- Stephan Jaeger FRL (+4500 at FanDuel) – 0.11 Units
