PGA Tour is back to individual play for the 2024 Byron Nelson, which means that One & Done picks and pools are back!
Below, we will take a look at golfers who are in solid form and fit the course well to give you a chance to win the week in your pool, whether you need a contrarian or safe pick.
First, lets take a look at the course. TPC Craig Ranch is truly one of the most bland courses on the PGA Tour. This TPC design is a tad longer than average but will play as one of the easiest courses on Tour. Golfers will have no problem hitting the fairways this week, and with the greens being bigger and softer than average, they will take dead aim at flags and pour in a ton of birdies.
This design once again proves that distance has minimal bearing on scoring. Firm and fast conditions are the answer to keep scoring closer to par.
Here are my 2024 Byron Nelson One & Done Picks.
2024 Byron Nelson One & Done Picks
Sungjae Im +2800
Sungjae Im is having an underwhelming year on the PGA Tour, but this tournament is a great opportunity for him to break through. Throughout his career, he has faired well in birdie-fests. This season, he set the PGA Tour record for birdies in an event at The Sentry in January. It is no secret that Im is not scared to take it low.
This week will feature extremely easy conditions that suit his game as he enters with momentum. After playing the RBC Heritage two weeks ago in South Carolina, he flew to South Korea last week and successfully defended his title at the Woori Financial Group Championship! He made birdie on the 72nd hole to win by a shot.
Clearly, that field on the Korean Tour is far worse than this week's field, but seeing the ball go in the cup and winning could help him find a spark. Im should be confident heading to a track that suits his game this week as he could join a list of South Koreans who have thrived at the Byron Nelson.
Before this event moved to TPC Craig Ranch, countryman Sung Kang won in 2019. After that, K.H. Lee won here in back-to-back years in 2021 and 2022. Finally Si Woo Kim finished in a tie for second last year. South Koreans love it here, and Im may be the next man to lift the trophy.
Si Woo Kim +2000
Si Woo Kim will be a popular pick this week because he makes all the sense in the world. As mentioned, he has some quality course history after finishing in a tie for second here last year. Outside of that, he enters in the midst of an excellent ball-striking season.
He has not missed a cut since October 2023 and has gained strokes ball-striking in every start in 2024, which is impressive. There are not many courses to save Kim for, so why not run him out on a course he has played well on while he is in great ball-striking form, especially when there are few elite players who have a higher ceiling than him in the field?
If the putter can match the ball-striking, Kim could capture his fifth PGA Tour win.
Sam Stevens +8000
Sam Stevens may be the next golfer who establishes that he can elevate his baseline in Texas events. Stevens has shown to be a fairly average ball-striker in his two seasons on Tour. He hovers between zero and three Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking on a weekly basis.
When diving into the numbers, Stevens has had three tournaments where he gained 6.7 strokes or more via ball-striking at the 2023 Valero Texas Open (at TPC San Antonio), the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge (at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth) and the 2023 Byron Nelson here in the Dallas area at TPC Craig Ranch.
All three of those events are in Texas, and the Oklahoma State Cowboy who was born in Fort Worth could continue to thrive in the Lone Star State this week.
Stevens has two top-14 finishes in his last three starts on Tour and makes sense as our longshot One & Done pick ahead of the 2024 Byron Nelson.
