Here's everything you need to know about the Byron Nelson PrizePicks 2024: First-round plays for Thursday's PGA Tour event in McKinney, Texas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par-71, 7,414-yard track designed by Tom Weiskopf that features Bentgrass greens and is relatively easy to score on.
Find my 2024 Byron Nelson PrizePicks for Thursday below.
2024 Byron Nelson PrizePicks
Thomas Detry Over 4.5 Birdies or Better
The first golfer to target on Thursday is Thomas Detry, who has started to round into form recently with five straight weekend appearances. Detry posted two top-10 finishes over that stretch, including his eighth-place finish at last week's Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
He is seemingly doing everything well right now, gaining strokes in five consecutive tournaments. Detry is driving the ball far, his approach shots are sticking, and his putter is hot.
The only critique to really make about Detry's game right now is his scrambling, but you don't need to scramble often at TPC Craig Ranch due to how often he'll be hitting greens in regulation. Last year, golfers hit 68.8% of greens in regulation at TPC Craig Ranch, which is 4.6% more than at an average PGA Tour course.
That will leave Detry with a lot of birdie opportunities, which I'm sure he will take advantage of as he ranks 10th on Tour this season in Birdie Average.
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Stephan Jaeger Less Than 68 Strokes
I wrote about Stephan Jaeger in my FRL article this week, and if I like him to lead after the first round, then I obviously like him to record less than 68 strokes. Jaeger should be eager to return to Texas as he won in his last start in the Lone Star State just a few weeks ago at the Texas Children's Houston Open.
While TPC Craig Ranch is obviously a different venue, this is still a track that Jaeger finished 38th at in his first appearance in 2022 and then improved upon that with an 11th-place finish last season. He has shot a 67 or lower in five of his past seven rounds here.
We know what we are getting from Jaeger in terms of his golf game: he is going to hit the ball far and follow that up with strong approach play and a quality short game. The questions start to emerge once Jaeger is actually on the greens as his putter is inconsistent.
Regardless, he should be able to get away with just mediocre putting at this venue, and if that club isn't holding him back, then scoring shouldn't be a problem for Jaeger this week.
Tom Hoge Less Than 68 Strokes
Tom Hoge is the last golfer to back on Thursday. Once again, Hoge will tee it up in a golf tournament where he is the best ball-striker in a Scottie Scheffler-less field.
On Tour this season, Hoge ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach and has now gained strokes in this category in 10 consecutive tournaments with ShotLink data. He made the weekend in all 10 of those events, boasting seven top-20 finishes over that stretch.
Hoge had a bit of a hiccup last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but that was a team event and does not concern me at all about his profile moving forward. He also made the weekend in each of his past two appearances in this event, including a tie for 17th in 2022.
Hoge has shot a 68 or lower in seven of his 10 career rounds at TPC Craig Ranch.
