2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Data-Driven Picks for Sepp Straka & More

There will be a lot of discussion this week about the impact of Gil Hanse's restoration of Colonial Country Club. Over 20 million dollars was invested in the property to return it to its original design.

There will likely be two separate viewpoints on exactly how much influence that factor will have compared to past iterations of this contest since my model seems to believe this is a glorified 'pitch-and-putt' contest that somehow removes high-end birdie-making potential from the equation.

That is a weird answer since you typically attach the narrative of a short course being more straightforward in its nature. However, length doesn't necessarily make a venue problematic because Colonial consistently grades as one of the more challenging stops yearly.

How much Hanse's construction and new 007X Bentgrass greens deviate from that long-term expectation remains to be seen, but I didn't feel the need to alter past models to account for these changes.

I've always thought that extrapolating out projections from little-to-no new data can become a problem because you are now "guessing" over "projecting."

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Data-Driven Picks

Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.

Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and show potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview podcast.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Biggest Market Movers

We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.

My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but we did get in early on Brian Harman and Harris English before these prices plummeted.  

I will explain my reasoning behind those two plays in a second and if there is still value in their new going rates. You never want to find yourself chasing the wrong end of a movement because value is the name of the game if you are attempting to build a bankroll. That is something that I stress quite frequently with my matchup plays because they do have the propensity to alter quickly. 

I didn't find myself agreeing with the shifts that we saw on Ben Kohles and Adam Svensson after both graded as extreme negative leverage at their new going rates. That is going to be an area of the market where my model is going to grade them as two of the inferior value options that you can find at this moment.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Worst Current Values

Outside of Taylor Moore, you are going to see that entire list as some of the more significant negative movers in the market for their head-to-head matchups. Almost every option there is landing as a listed underdog against most of their opponents, with many of those prices opening the week at what I like to call "trap numbers."

Those are essentially these perceived juiced-up totals where books are trying to get you to grab a price that doesn't possess the value that you may think it does at its most basic level.

One reason I found fewer matchups than I would have liked this week is because shops did price out both sides of many of these situations. However, Moore's landing as someone the market still respected allowed me to grab one of my favorite floor options of the week, Sepp Straka, over him at -115. 

The American ranked 94th for me when running the data over a two-year perspective to fit this week's venue, highlighted by some extremely low-end marks that placed him 93rd in Weighted Strokes Gained Total, 102nd when taking on courses in Texas, 95th for Weighted Scoring and 108th for my favorite category of the week, a metric I labeled in my model as "Weighted Approach + Weighted Putting + Gir Percentage."

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Picks

Harris English 40-1 (Best is now 35-1 if you shop around)

I discussed this abrupt move from Harris English on Links + Locks yesterday with Roberto Arguello. The 35-1 number out there can still allow some optimism if you are looking for a price at its very lowest level of value. However, it's challenging when there was an opportunity on Monday to get this price at 50-1 at specific locations. 

I didn't get the best of it myself because English plummeted quicker than any option this week. Still, his putting acumen gives him clear-cut upside since the shorter nature of Colonial Country Club accentuates his accuracy strength off the tee. 

Brian Harman 40-1 (Widely Available)

My model ranked Brian Harman first in this field for Expected Par-4 Scoring at Colonial Country Club. That factor carries a little more weight than usual because the par-70 nature of the course only renders two par-5 opportunities for the field. 

The historical dispersion of scoring generated an extremely flat expectation when diving into par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring, which gave Harman one of the more considerable boosts since my math ranked him fourth for par-3 scoring and 51st for par-5 scoring. 

His typical par-5 detriment will be neutralized here. 

Sepp Straka 50-1 (You can still find 50-1 if you shop around)

Straka carries some of the better form of anyone in this field, gaining a minimum of 3.6 strokes with his irons in four of his past five starts while also achieving positive totals off the tee in 10 of 11.

I am going to ignore last week's missed cut at the PGA Championship and focus on the three top-16 finishes he provided before that result. 

J.T. Poston 80-1 (BetMGM & BetRivers)

Could the change in course length be the catalyst for J.T. Poston's return to form?

I understand the risk I am taking on for a golfer who is averaging negative -1.60 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last five starts. Still, I am willing to take a chance on that profile when it produced a Weighted Scoring and Expected Strokes Gained Total output that landed him second in this field for both categories. 

I wouldn't touch Poston in any of your safety markets, but large-field GPP contests for DFS, first-round leader markets, high-end placement bets or outright totals are all intriguing ways to gain exposure.

Mark Hubbard 90-1 (FanDuel & PointsBet)

Mark Hubbard's most significant weakness has historically been his driver, an area of his game that ranks 92nd in this field for Weighted Total Driving.

I have already talked frequently this week about how Colonial yields a zero-impact return for any driving metric that isn't accuracy-related, and while I understand that his typical upside wouldn't warrant consideration at this price, not all courses are built the same for a golfer's profile.

My math believed that this will be about as pristine of an opportunity as he has gotten since Pebble Beach earlier this season, a venue that saw him post a fourth-place finish when taking on a much better field than the one he draws in Texas.

Our Staff's Charles Schwab Challenge Best BetsRead now

Justin Lower 200-1 (You can now find 250-1 at PointsBet)

Justin Lower's four consecutive top-28 finishes haven't been accounted for in this price, and I would argue that this is the single-best location of any of those results for him to reach even higher levels of success.

If you want a secondary route to consider, Lower at +190 for a top 40 at DraftKings was one of my favorite placement targets on the board.

My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Max Homa
4. Brian Harman

First-Round Leader Bets

There seems to be a morning wave advantage for first-round wagers on Thursday.

Here were the best values to consider inside of my model.

Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)

My model is trying pinpoint value further down this board because of the high-end implied probabilities near the very top.

Scottie Scheffler isn't worth a bet at 3-1 (even if he wins). I could make an argument that Collin Morikawa is worth consideration at 12-1. However, with those two grading as the runaway names to win this title, my sheet keeps pushing in the direction of taking dart-throw choices to round out a card.

I did that with Lower and Hubbard, although there are a handful of names above to consider for your own card.