Charley Hoffman returned triumphantly to his 'first-round king' moniker Thursday, posting a five-under-par total to take a one-shot lead over a slew of chasers.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Hoffman has popped over the past few months after watching him land a fourth-place finish a few weeks ago at the Coarles Puntacana. There is also that additional second-place result that he generated at the WM Phoenix Open earlier this season, but as I have said all season long, a UNLV golfer in Texas always performs!
We will see if any of Adam Scott, Ryan Moore, Harry Hall or Garrick Higgo can join Hoffman with a top-notch round of their own Friday, but remember, "Rebels Always Make It Happen."
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Round 2 Predictions
J.T. Poston -110 over Keith Mitchell (FanDuel)
If we look at the golfers 70/1 or less on the odds board entering the week, here were the biggest fade candidates that I wanted to try to take on in matchups throughout the event.
We got one of those wagers off against Taylor Moore with our pre-tournament bet of Sepp Straka over Moore at -115. I believe there is credence in considering both J.T. Poston and Adam Scott over Moore for round two if you are looking for extra action on the day.
That said, I decided to go with just one official play tomorrow in J.T. Poston over Keith Mitchell and leave those additional exposure bets against Moore alone since there was enough pre-event movement for him in the sharper markets to salvage an otherwise questionable profile in my sheet.
My math questioned some of the market outlooks for Mitchell after the American continued his struggles when faced with Colonial Country Club, dropping 1.03 strokes on the day. That total moved his seven-round output over the three years he has played the course to negative-1.29 shots per round.
I know most bettors continue to find intrigue in Mitchell's ball striking. However, I've been a big advocate this week that Colonial yields a zero-impact return with a driver in hand, removing most of his strength and emphasizing a negative shift with the flat stick that projected him 107th in this field for expected putting.
I mentioned on this week's Links + Locks podcast how Poston landed as one of my favorite high-upside plays in the outright market but wouldn't be a golfer I was looking to back during in-tournament bets because of his volatility. However, I couldn't overlook this heightened market intrigue around Mitchell that opened him -110 to take on a golfer that graded closer to -135 against him inside my sheet.
I'll take just over a five percent implied probability advantage and roll the dice on Poston being able to keep the form going for another round. If he does, I believe we get a win. And even if he doesn't, the floor for Mitchell carries an even lower basement level because of the questionable skill set of the venue that he possesses.
Poston won on day one by four shots, My model had him 5.63 strokes better. That usually shows there is still a little meat left on the bone to attack this again.
