The golf world was hit by the tragic news of Grayson Murray on Saturday after the 30-year-old died after withdrawing from the tournament Friday afternoon.
I don't want to get into the specifics since I have no idea of what transpired in Murray's life between that withdrawal and his sudden passing. I am sure we will get more details over the next 48-72 hours, but as Peter Malnati eloquently said in his interview with Amanda Balionis, "We are all just humans."
Be a little more delicate to everyone around you because life is a precious gift that can get grasped away from you at any moment. You never know what someone is going through in their life.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Charles Schwab Challenge Round 4
Ben Martin (-110) Over Gary Woodland (FanDuel)
Most of these matchup markets possessed very little value to consider on Sunday because of how shops priced these options against one another for the day. Essentially, many of my fade candidates got placed against fellow fade candidates, which is always going to be challenging to locate value when a board shapes up in that direction.
My goal is to look for a minimum of a three percent implied probability edge on these plays to recommend them in the article because of the sure-fire movement that will occur for 90% of the matchups I put on my card. We didn't quite get that edge here at its most basic level, for whatever that is worth, but I will take a shot at backing Ben Martin -110 over Gary Woodland because of this troubling profile from Woodland that isn't fully showing up with my math this week.
My model placed Woodland 125th pre-event for Weighted Scoring. That is not necessarily going to come as a shock for a golfer who has been hit and miss since making his return. Still, it brings us to the million-dollar question weekly: What is more important between current form, statistical data and course history?
When it comes to decision-making, I always prioritize data over the other two factors. This is because relying too heavily on current form or course history can lead to an overcorrection that boosts a player solely based on potentially outdated information. However, it does make the process a little easier when questionable current form aligns with the data, as is the case with this wager.
Woodland graded as one of 10 players in this field who has overachieved his projected ball striking on the leaderboard by a minimum of five spots during all three rounds.
It hasn't been all bad after he managed to gain 0.16 strokes with that portion of his game over 54 holes to land 48th in that sector en route to an 18th-place spot output on the leaderboard, but this 7.61-shot discrepancy of overachieving does give him all those red flag marks that you never want to see entering the final round of a tournament.
Even if the value isn't perfect in terms of what I am ideally trying to find, there is a lot to like about a golfer down two strokes on the leaderboard when he should be up 6.23 shots.
I will take Martin to win a unit.
