After a wildly entertaining PGA Championship last week, the PGA Tour rolls on with the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas. Colonial Country Club is a par-70 tipping out at just over 7,200 yards and will once again host this tournament which dates back all the way to 1946.
While this may be one of the shorter tracks on Tour, don’t necessarily expect a birdie-fest becuase Colonial always plays somewhat difficult due to its tight fairways and doglegs in both directions.
Despite the Charles Schwab Challenge coming just a week after a major championship, the tournament features a very solid field this week headlined by Scottie Scheffler, who amazingly sits at +280 in the outright market. The field also features notables like Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau, who all check in with odds of +3200 or better.
Even though there are plenty of elite players in the field, Colonial is always a track that allows for longshot opportunities, given players of all different skillsets can win here because of a lessened emphasis on Driving Distance.
Let's take a look at my 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Sleeper Picks & Longshots below who have a chance to cash at long odds at Colonial.
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Beau Hossler 110-1 (bet365)
Beau Hossler played his college golf down I-35 at Texas and has been knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win for quite some time now. Hossler tied for fourth in Myrtle Beach just two weeks ago and has made the cut in four of his last five trips to Fort Worth.
Additionally, with the smaller greens at Colonial at an average size of 5,00 square feet, scrambling and putting will be important metrics because it’s very difficult to consistently hit greens here.
Hossler is 16th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on the season and 23rd in SG: Around the Green, so he should be well positioned to get up and down when he does find himself in trouble.
He also seems to be playing better golf recently after a stretch in March where he struggled a bit with his ball-striking. At triple-digit odds, I’ll take a stab at a talented player who has had plenty of close calls over the last few years and is certainly due to break through.
Patrick Rodgers 120-1 (bet365)
Speaking of players still searching for their first ever PGA Tour win, Patrick Rodgers is another veteran on that list. The world No. 83 lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia at the Barracuda Championship last summer when his ball unluckily fell into a divot in the fairway on the first playoff hole.
Just last month, at a course that correlates very similarly to Colonial, Rodgers tied for fifth in Hilton Head and flashed elite ball-striking throughout the weekend at Harbor Town.
While his 2024 statistics don’t jump out in any specific area, he is gaining strokes in both SG: Tee to Green and Off the Tee.
If he can get an often streaky flatstick going down in Texas, Rodgers could be poised to make a charge on the weekend. He led in SG: Putting at the RBC Heritage last month in an elite Signature Event field, so he can get it done down in Texas this week.
Webb Simpson 150-1 (bet365)
Webb Simpson is a former major champion who has quietly been playing better golf of recent. He has only missed one cut in 2024, at The Players Championship, and finished in the top 25 in his most recent outing at Quail Hollow in difficult conditions despite his lack of Driving Distance.
His lack of length won’t hurt him much this week given Driving Accuracy is far more important than Driving Distance.
In terms of course history, Simpson has two top fives among his last five visits to Colonial, so he’s shown an ability to contend here over the years.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacon currently ranks among the top 50 in SG: Tee to Green and can still scramble with the best of them, checking in at seventh on the PGA Tour in SG: Around the Green. He has been especially hot around the green recently because he has gained over four strokes per tournament around the greens in three of his last four starts.
Lastly, if he does find himself in the hunt, Simpson has long been an elite closer out on Tour with seven career victories, and he thus offers plenty of win equity at 150-1.
