Fresh off an awesome Masters which was as competitive as we’ve seen in recent memory until the very end, the LPGA will hope their own first major of the season brings as much entertainment to golf fans.
The Chevron Championship has been the first major of the season for over 40 years for the LPGA, but last season saw a big change, as the venue moved from Mission Hills Country Club in Rancho Mirage, California to the Jack Nicklaus Signature Course at The Club at Carlton Woods in The Woodlands, Texas.
Last year’s winner Lilia Vu will be among the returning players, but Nelly Korda is in absolute peak form right now, having won the last four events she has entered outright, including each of the three weeks prior to this most recent break in the season when the Masters took place last week.
Korda has a Schefller-esque +500 price to win this week at The Woodlands, and while she is certainly the favorite, there are a lot of golfers who offer betting intrigue this weekend. Let’s take a walk through five players in my 2024 Chevron Championship picks and expert predictions.
Angel Yin +3500 to Win
We don’t have a deep sample size when it comes to this course, as noted, but last year’s runner-up, Angel Yin, is a golfer I was eyeing regardless of her success last year. Yin returned two weeks ago at Shadow Creek Golf Course for the annual match play event, which was her first time playing on the LPGA since breaking her ankle late last fall after an excellent 2023 season.
Yin showed no real rust, finishing in a tie for second during the stroke-play portion of the tournament (side note: I loved the tweak in format this year, and it made for an absolutely stacked final eight over the weekend), but she got the worst draw in the quarterfinals as she lost to eventual champion, Nelly Korda, in a one-sided affair.
However, I’m looking to sprinkle Yin to flip the script on Korda this week, mostly because her odds to win the Chevron right now are just not appropriately priced. Bettors can get Yin to win at +3500 at several books, which is simply too long a number for a golfer of her talent.
Before her injury last season, Yin had an outright win at the Buick LPGA Shanghai and a fourth-place finish at the BMW Ladies Championship, both in October. Her rounds at Shadow Creek were a strokes-gained master class last week, and I’ll be looking at her in top-five and top-10 markets as well once those arrive.
Albane Valenzuela Top 20 +370
I don’t want to over-weigh one season at a new course last year, but when it aligns with a player I was already eyeing, it’s a valuable tiebreaker. The 26-year-old Swiss international finished fourth here last season and has rather quietly been on a run of solid play ever since. This season, she has a runner-up finish at the Honda LPGA Thailand, as well as a T15 at Blue Bay LPGA.
She doesn’t hold as much win equity as Yin, or even some of the players below her whom we will analyze below, but I quite like her in the top-20 market, an area she has oft found herself.
Miyu Yamashita Top 20 +250
Yamashita does most of her professional golfing on the LPGA of Japan Tour, so she’s a bit unknown, but she’s a hell of a golfer. At just 22 years old, she already has 11 wins on her tour and is consistently breaking records for her success there.
Her game has translated very well when she comes to play at the majors, too! She debuted at the 2022 Women’s British Open having just celebrated her 20th birthday and posted a 13th-place finish. Last year, she competed in three more majors as she missed the cut once but also sported a T48 and T21. She is yet to play in The Woodlands, but again, that doesn’t put her far behind the rest of the field because of the lack of familiarity with the venue for everyone.
She’s been priced around players like Cheyenne Knight and Gaby López, but I like her ceiling and(!) her floor much more than other golfers in that same tier. I’m highest on her floor, though, so I will be heaviest on her to finish in the top 20.
Lucy Li to Win 175-1 & Top 10 +1100
Here’s another young star in the making that the market hasn’t caught up on. The 21-year-old California native has a T4, T10 and T13 already this season, and maybe more importantly, she has also made the cut at all five events she has played this year after an inconsistent sophomore season in 2023.
By LPGA regulars, she ranks 11th in Strokes Gained this season, and each aspect of her game has improved from a shaky 2022. The irons have been especially dialed, which is always the part of the game I am going to weigh the most, especially come major championship time.
Even in an off season, she managed to make the cut at the Chevron last season, and that was despite some bad putting luck.
Li is one whose ceiling is often what I am targeting, so I’ll be playing her top 10 and a sprinkle on an outright at 175-1.
Olivia Cowan Top 20 +1000
Olivia Cown is the golfer whom I have bet on the most recently. She had a run of top 10s and 20s late last season and has been just outside the top 20 twice this year (T21 and T23). She didn’t play in the Chevron last season but has one of the cleanest approach games in the LPGA and is one I’ll find myself betting to top 20.
2024 Chevron Championship Betting Card
- 0.1u Angel Yin to Win (+3000, bet365)
- 0.25u Angel Yin Top 10 (+295, BetRivers)
- 0.25u Albane Valenzuela Top 20 (+370, BetRivers)
- 0.25u Miyu Yamashita Top 20 (+250, ESPN Bet)
- 0.1u Lucy Li to Win (+17500, Caesars)
- 0.25u Lucy Li Top 10 (+1100, BetRivers)
- 0.5u Olivia Cowan Top 20 (+1000, ESPN Bet — bump in unit for off-market price)
- 0.25u Sarah Schmelzel Top 20 (+240, ESPN Bet)
- 0.1u Gabriela Ruffels Top 10 (+650, ESPN Bet)
