Two rounds of the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson are complete. It's a rather boring golf tournament on an extremely bleak course, but we have a bunched up leaderboard and there's money to be made.
The birdies were flowing through the first 36 holes and that will continue to be the case going forward. Leader Jake Knapp is doing exactly what needs to be done to perform well on this course. He is crushing the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and putting well above average. Those two statistics are what we will look into over the weekend as we try to find some winners. Here's a quick look at the leaderboard and some 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Round 3 picks.
1) Jake Knapp -14 (+360)
T2) Matt Wallace -13 (+750)
T2) Troy Merritt -13 (+1200)
4) Kelly Kraft -12 (+2200)
T5) Keith Mitchell -11 (+1000)
T5) Taylor Pendrith (+1600)
T5) Davis Riley (+1800)
T5) Ben Kohles (+3500)
Aaron Rai Top 10 (+165)
Rai has played great golf this year and that's continuing through the first two rounds of the Byron Nelson. He has played a very consistent two rounds with a 67 on Thursday and a 65 on Friday. I love the fact that he has two solid rounds rather than an average round and a spike round. More times than not, golfers who post one spike round through the first 36 holes fail to back it up over the weekend.
Rai is hitting his irons tremendously and is third in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach — a key stat to success this week. He is losing strokes putting, but that's on brand for him. Whether he gains strokes on the putting greens over the weekend or not, I don't see Rai fading. He is a very consistent golfer who doesn't get himself in trouble often. Look for Rai to be consistent over the next two rounds and cash this ticket on Sunday afternoon.
Taiga Semikawa Top 20 (+110)
Semikawa is a young Japanese star making the most out of this opportunity in Texas. Through two rounds, he's 10-under par and just four shots off the lead. Semikawa is usually a boom-or-bust golfer, but he seems to be in the middle of a really solid week. He is gaining strokes off the tee, on approach and on the putting greens. I'm not worried about him losing strokes around the greens because he is taking caring of business in the spots that matter most.
Semikawa knows this week could mean a lot to his future, so why not take a stab at the top 20, which isn't too much to ask for? Plus, we are getting a nice number for a golfer who is already double digits under par.
Maverick McNealy Top 10 (+360)
McNealy is 8-under par with a pair of 67s to start his week. That consistency will treat him very well over the weekend. McNealy isn't putting up eye popping stats, but is slightly in the green in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. You may be wondering why I would include a golfer who is barely performing in a key stat. Well, McNealy very rarely gains strokes with his irons, but when he does, he's dangerous.
For whatever reason, McNealy tends to hit his irons well in the state of Texas. He's also usually a great driver and an elite putter. The fact that the irons have shown some life over the first two rounds give me hope that he can make some noise over the weekend. Look for McNealy to hit more Greens in Regulation and roll a ton of putts over the next 36 holes.
