The PGA Tour regular season trudges on, and after a fun weekend at the Zurich Classic, a more traditional tournament returns this weekend for the Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas.
TPC Craig Ranch hosts this week for the fourth straight year and is a par-71 with Bentgrass greens. The course has historically been low-scoring and birdie-friendly for bombers who can take advantage of their length with accurate approach shots.
The course features some drivable par-4s, which makes length off the tee a premium skill here. While the last few weeks have yielded mostly chalky winners, that means we are due for some chaos this weekend on the PGA Tour, especially without any golfers shorter than 14-1 to win outright.
Let's take a look at my 2024 Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks & Longshots below.
2024 Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Jake Knapp 110-1 (bet365)
Jake Knapp burst onto the scene earlier this season with a win at the Mexico Open at Vidanta among a flurry of top-five finishes. He cracked the top five at the Farmers Insurance Open, Mexico Open and the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches all in a two-month span.
The rookie has cooled off a bit since, but he hasn’t been disastrous. He has only missed two cuts in 11 events this season, including back-to-back made cuts at the Masters and the RBC Heritage coming into this week.
When you’re looking for a longshot, you are looking for upside, and Knapp has that in spades. You won’t find many golfers priced at 110-1 or higher this week or any week on the PGA Tour that have a ceiling as high as Knapp’s during his two-month hot stretch earlier this season.
Knapp’s biggest strengths map well with the course here as well. Knapp ranks 18th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.
The UCLA Bruin is also a great driver of the ball. He is 18th overall in Total Driving, 27th in Driving Distance and 83rd in Driving Accuracy. With a course that rewards long hitters with some advantages on drivable par-4s, Knapp will have a chance to strut his stuff here.
Ryan Palmer 110-1 (DraftKings)
Next we move to a golfer with a history of success at the Byron Nelson as Ryan Palmer simply loves it here.
In his last two appearances at this event, Palmer finished eighth in 2023 and fifth in 2022. Of all the golfers in the field this week, Palmer is ranked second overall in Total Strokes Gained at TPC Craig Ranch in his career.
He only trails K.H. Lee, who won the event twice in a row in 2021 and 2022 at TPC Craig Ranch, which first hosted this event in 2021.
Palmer has performed better on average at this course than many of the betting favorites, including Jordan Spieth (+1400), Jason Day (+1800) and Adam Scott (+2500). At 110-1, given Palmer’s success here, he is grossly undervalued this weekend.
Palmer is also coming off of his best finish of the season last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, where he finished T19. After starting the season by missing the cut in three of his first four starts, Palmer has rounded into form making the cut in four of his last five events heading into the Byron Nelson.
The 47-year-old is also a sneakily elite driver as well, ranking 12th on the PGA Tour in Total Driving, 30th in Driving Accuracy and 35th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. If he drives the ball well this week, this is one of the best value bets on the board.
Joel Dahmen 175-1 (bet365)
Our final longshot is a familiar name to golf fans around the world (and Netflix watchers).
Joel Dahmen has had an up-and-down season, and really an up-and-down career. His story has been well-documented, as he approaches golf much more lightheartedly than most professionals on Tour.
However, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the stuff to win on any given week. His talent is much closer to the top 30 in the world than his results have shown. As the season progresses, the pressure will mount to post some quality results or risk falling off the Tour altogether, as he's currently 107th in the FedExCup Standings.
Despite Dahmen’s inconsistency, he tied for 11th at THE PLAYERS Championship and is coming off a T28 finish last week at the Zurich Classic.
Dahmen is appealing this week for a few reasons.
First, he feels due. In a field that lacks star power while many of the biggest names rest up to play in a PGA Tour signature event at Quail Hollow and a major championship at Valhalla in the next two weeks, Dahmen is suddenly one of the most talented players in the field this weekend.
Second, Dahmen has been fantastic off the tee this season (despite being shorter than average) and as usual has excelled with his approach shots. He ranks 24th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this season and 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green. He is second in the entire PGA Tour in Proximity, and that should help him on a birdie-friendly course.
At 175-1, Dahmen is simply a much better golfer than anyone else at this valuation. It’s time for him to back that up.
