Some minor deviations had to occur within my model to account for PGA National transforming into the birdie fest of all birdie fests. So much for 14 of the past 17 seasons landing within the top 10 of difficulty when the course flipped its identity upside down with limited rough and slow green complexes.
We talked pre-event about how converting the lengthy and challenging par-four 10th would cause a slight ripple in ease across the board. Still, I don't know if any model could have adequately accounted for that factor, especially considering the new par-five played at an average score of 4.164 shots.
If you are asking me, golf has lost the narrative that the sport is supposed to be complicated. I thought it was bad enough that the PGA Tour was losing half its players to LIV, but it becomes a whole different problem when we are now trying to appeal to those remaining by making everything a walk in the park.
I am not sure what the correct recipe for success is moving forward, but all I know is something needs to change. Let's stop upsetting the people who put money in the pockets of the sport. Without the fans, there is no PGA or LIV.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Cognizant Classic Round 2 Predictions
Alex Noren -110 over Erik van Rooyen (Bet365)
There is some concern that the general ease we just talked about from PGA National this year could massively alter a projection around a golfer like Erik van Rooyen.
Initially ranked 76th in my model for the week and outside the top 100 from a pure "statistical return," van Rooyen excelled with the purer conditions Thursday en route to his ninth-place score of five-under par.
I do think van Rooyen's birdie-making potential does suddenly get a boost in anticipated return when we are trying to run numbers for day two. However, it is hard to ignore the fact that the South African ended up grading as the fourth-largest overachiever in the field when comparing his actual score and expected ball-striking performance.
Van Rooyen's 3.7-shot increase from his baseline return stemmed primarily from a putter that gained 3.6 strokes to the field. I do want to note that my model didn't anticipate that increase with the flat stick on Bermuda greens when I ran my data pre-tournament, meaning regression does feel like it is in play for a golfer who should have lost by 3.31 shots to Noren if all things were equal Thursday.
I will bet this to win one unit over on Bet365 and would be fine playing this safely up to -120 since I had the proper return closer to -133. I usually like to have somewhere between a 2.5-3% edge on these recommendations.
