PGA National will play marginally easier this week since the challenging 508-yard par-4 10th hole has now been converted into an additional par-5. That doesn't mean the difficulty isn't still there since 15 holes present legitimate water danger, but adding a handful of extra par-5 attempts over four days does allow some extra ease to the course.
However, golfers won't see that forgiveness during the "Bear Trap" holes of 15, 16 and 17. Those three will get all the headlines coming down the home stretch, although there's an equally challenging three-hole run between the fifth, sixth and seventh holes that can quickly balloon golfers' scores if they aren't firing on all cylinders.
I always note how the Florida Swing is brutal to handicap since water will be the undoing for many golfers in the field. Water penalties are exceptionally notable when comparing courses since an errant attempt during the West Coast Swing still allowed the ability to scramble out of the rough to salvage par or even bogey.
We will see how much exposure we end up with for this tournament when diving into in-tournament matchups and things of that nature, but remember, sometimes the bets you don't place are more valuable than the ones you do. There is no need to force action during a flawed betting board if you can't find value.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Cognizant Classic Betting Preview podcast.
2024 Cognizant Classic Biggest Market Movers
I thought the movement around Byeong Hun An, Adam Svensson, Eric Cole, Tom Kim and Stephan Jaeger all presented legitimate credibility for why their numbers dropped.
An's activity was the most noticeable of the week after shifting from 45-1 to 28-1 in the span of a few hours on Monday. The 32-year-old ranked first in my model for Projected Strokes Gained on a Bermuda surface and has expressed his love for PGA National when interviewed about the course in the past.
Svensson and Kim will be slightly more boom-or-bust because of the high-end metrics in some of the critical areas of my sheet being mixed with the occasional poor return. Svensson ranks 65th on challenging courses and Kim is 56th because of his anticipated short game for the venue.
However, both possessed a massive ball-striking answer indicative of a golfer who could get hot on approach and roll in a few putts. Safety markets are shakier, but anything with potential is highly worth considering.
I also thought Cole and Jaeger were just quality golfers across the board. We will get into why I liked Jaeger in a second, but Cole's first-place rank in my Weighted Strokes Gained: Total category will show why he almost won this title in 2023.
Don't be shocked if one of those options we just talked about takes down this title.
2024 Cognizant Classic Outright Picks
Stephan Jaeger 45-1 (FanDuel)
The results over the past year haven't always hit the mark for bettors since there has been a lot more safety than upside for Jaeger, but he is a golfer who demonstrated some of that potential on the Korn Ferry Tour during his six wins between 2016 and 2021. A lot of his PGA Tour success has been limited until recently, but finding a golfer in this field who will provide a better mixture of safety and upside is almost impossible when we dive into the metrics.
His 22 consecutive made cuts will blend well with his two top-three finishes over the last three starts, and it might finally be time for Jaeger to win on the PGA Tour when looking into the trending stats.
His profile demonstrates similar returns compared to An, Cole and Russell Henley, but I will take the only option of the four who is currently over 28-1 on the outright board in Jaeger.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 60-1 (bet365)
Credit to Jason Sobel for getting the best of this number when it opened at 80-1 in his weekly mega guide. Movement and value will always matter in this industry.
I did a little better than the current price when I grabbed Bezuidenhout at 66-1. I would be lying if I said I didn't worry about Bezuidenhout's true upside when we look at historical trends, but the fact he has gained between 1.3 to 4.7 shots with his irons over his past four starts might be a telling sign of more robust finishes this year.
Ryo Hisatsune 110-1 (FanDuel)
I am going to bite one more time on Ryo Hisatsune. The 21-year-old is an extremely talented scorer who failed to get the most out of his opportunity at the Mexico Open last week.
You could argue that my limited data is propelling him too far up the board because of this season's helter-skelter return of data. Still, I don't want to ignore the top-five grades for Short-game Projection and Weighted Scoring in my model when he is priced as a longshot at 110-1.
Top-Two Projected Win Equity Choices In My Model
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
Most of the declining numbers have removed those golfers from still being a value at this current stage of the week.
Bezuidenhout still cracks the range since my model had him proper at roughly 50-1, but a lot of the current intrigue for me would stem from a longshot option who has drifted too far up the board. Otherwise, this may be a better in-tournament betting opportunity for the favorites.
