Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches first-round leader picks — our expert FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event at The Champion course at PGA National in Florida.
With the Mexico Open at Vidanta in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. PGA National hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2007.
PGA National is a par-71, 7,147-yard track designed by George and Tom Fazio and redesigned several times by Jack Nicklaus that rewards strong approach play, hitting greens in regulation (GIR) and avoiding water penalties.
Find my 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches first-round leader picks below.
2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches First-Round Leader Picks
Byeong Hun An +4000 (FanDuel | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 6:45 a.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots, especially on a coastal course like PGA National. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
That brings us to Byeong Hun An, who tees off in the first of 24 groups on Thursday. As someone who has yet to win on Tour, I trust An much more on a Thursday than I do on a Sunday, but he profiles well for this course.
First, An enters this week in great form, with 11 straight weekend appearances and four finishes in the top four over that stretch. He has also fared particularly well in this tournament, finishing in the top five twice in just five appearances.
His success at PGA National makes sense considering that An hits greens at a high rate. On Tour this season, he ranks 31st in GIR%.
That is important to note because four of the top-nine finishers in last year's tournament ranked seventh or higher in GIR%, the only metric in which that occurred.
Brandon Wu +10000 (FanDuel | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 8:13 a.m. ET
Brandon Wu tees off a bit later in the morning than An, but he is still in the ninth of 24 groups on Thursday. After a couple poor performances at PGA National, Wu bounced back in a big way last year with a T14 finish.
He should carry that momentum into this week, at least on Thursday. First, he is in good form as he is coming off a tie for 13th at last week's Mexico Open at Vidanta.
His irons have been dialed in recently, gaining True Strokes on Approach in five of his past six tournaments. He is also hitting greens at a high clip and currently ranks 33rd on Tour in GIR%.
Wu is particularly adept at hitting greens from 150-175 yards, ranking 24th on Tour in GIR% in that range of distances. 22.8% of approach shots at PGA National come from 150-175 yards, the largest distribution of any 25-yard range.
100-1 is just such a long number, and considering these rankings and his recent form, it's worth a dart throw.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Eric Cole Outright Winner (+3000 at bet365) – 0.36 Units
- J.T. Poston Outright Winner (+3000 at bet365) – 0.33 Units
- Stephan Jaeger Top Five (+900 at bet365) – 0.3 Units
- Erik van Rooyen Top 10 (+650 at bet365) – 0.27 Units
- Akshay Bhatia Top 20 (+280 at bet365) – 0.24 Units
- Carson Young Top 30 (+260 at bet365) – 0.20 Units
- Mark Hubbard Top 40 (+115 at FanDuel) – 0.17 Units
- Byeong Hun An FRL (+4000 at FanDuel) – 0.14 Units
- Brandon Wu FRL (+10000 at FanDuel) – 0.11 Units
