Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Cognizant Classic first-round PrizePicks plays for Thursday's PGA Tour event.
With the Mexico Open at Vidanta in the rearview mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. PGA National hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2007.
PGA National is a par-71, 7,147-yard track designed by George and Tom Fazio and redesigned several times by Jack Nicklaus that rewards strong approach play, hitting greens in regulation (GIR) and avoiding water penalties.
Below, I give out my 2024 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches PrizePicks for Thursday.
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2024 Cognizant Classic PrizePicks
Eric Cole: More Than 4 Birdies or Better
I mentioned in the introduction that GIR% is a key predictor of success at PGA National.
Last season, four of the top nine finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in GIR%, the only metric in which that trend occurred.
This trend makes sense considering the abundance of water throughout the course. If a player is hitting greens in regulation, then they're likely gaining strokes on the field since they're avoiding penalties.
That brings us to Eric Cole, whom I believe will get out to a hot start on Thursday.
Cole has been dialed in since the fall, reaching the weekend in 11 of his past 12 tournaments while amassing five top-10 finishes over that stretch. This success is likely to continue at PGA National, considering he finished runner-up here last year.
Add in the fact that Cole is currently a better golfer now than he was at this time last year, and you have a guy who could win this tournament.
He has hit greens at a clip north of 70% this season, and he's also a birdie machine. Cole ranks 29th on TOUR in birdie average.
Finally, Cole recorded at least four birdies or better in each of his four rounds at PGA National last season.
Byeong Hun An: Less Than 69.5 Strokes
I wrote about Byeong Hun An to lead after Thursday in my first-round leader article, and if I like him to do that, then I also think he'll shoot 69 or lower in the process.
First, An finds himself in an advantageous spot on Thursday given that he tees off in the first of 24 groups. It's almost always easier to score earlier in the day than later on when the greens get firmer.
Secondly, An also enters this week in great form, with 11 straight weekend appearances and four finishes inside the top four over that stretch. He has now shot a 68 or lower in 13 of his past 20 rounds.
An has also fared particularly well at this venue, finishing in the top five twice in five appearances. He has shot 69 or lower in nine of his past 16 rounds at PGA National.
This success here makes sense considering that An hits greens at a high rate, ranking 31st on TOUR this season in GIR%.
Jake Knapp: Less Than 3.5 Birdies or Better
I'm also fading Jake Knapp in a sell-high spot. Knapp made a big splash last week by winning the Mexico Open at Vidanta in just his fifth career TOUR event.
There's no denying that Knapp is a huge prospect to keep an eye on moving forward, but there may be some challenges in store for him on Thursday.
First, he has never played competitively at this venue before, and PGA National is a course that demands some experience due to its difficult nature and hazards throughout the track.
Secondly, while Knapp has a strong approach game, he struggles in the 150-175 yard range, ranking a mere 145th on TOUR in GIR% from that range. These poor results are problematic for this course specifically, as 22.8% of approach shots come from 150-175 yards out, the largest distribution of any 25-yard range.
Even if Knapp continues his success, I project Thursday to be his toughest round of the week.
