Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets for the PGA Tour's fourth event of 2024 in La Jolla, California. With the NFL conference championship games on Sunday, the PGA Tour has moved the Farmers Insurance Open up a day as it will begin on Wednesday and conclude on Saturday.
Check out our Action Network golf best bets for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open, including picks for Xander Schauffele, Ryan Fox, Aaron Rai and more as we go through our 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets.
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Xander Schauffele +950 (bet365)
Schauffele's first-round tee time: 1:40 p.m. ET (South Course)
Players often consider their hometown events to be a proverbial “fifth major,” and that’s the case with Xander Schauffele here, as he grew up not too far from Torrey Pines. While some might’ve predicted immediate success for him at this event, he instead struggled early and missed the cut in his first three starts.
“I don't know,” he said before his fourth appearance in 2019, when trying to assess why he hadn’t fared better. “If I knew, I wouldn't have missed all these cuts… Whenever I play in front of fans and friends, I always want to do that little extra. So if I'm playing poorly, it will piss me off a little more than if I'm in New York or somewhere way away from home. There's added pressure just to perform better.”
He finished T25 that week but again missed the cut in 2020, as those struggles on a venue which should fit him quickly grew into a pattern. Schauffele turned things around in 2021, though, finishing in a share of second place. He then added results of T34 and T13 over the past two years, which is enough to have us believing that whatever bad mojo was hindering the local guy early should be behind him now.
Perhaps moving to Las Vegas a few years ago helped alleviate some of that pressure. In any case, he’s fresh off a T3 at The American Express where the ball-striking was fine and the putter got hot. After victories from Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap, I can understand anyone’s reluctance to play someone near the top of the board, let alone a 9/1 favorite.
However, it just might take a big name to break this string, and Schauffele is trending in the right direction, both recently and at this event. If you prefer to wait a round or two and see if that 9/1 number drifts to, say, 15/1 or bigger without him being too far back, I don’t dislike that idea whatsoever.
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Spencer Aguiar: Ryan Fox -110 Over Billy Horschel (BetRivers)
Fox's first-round tee time: 11:50 a.m. ET (North Course)
I always feel the need to say this, but my matchups are more of a direct representation of who I am trying to fade, not so much who I am looking to back. I'd look for other alternatives if you don't have access to this particular head-to-head. Michael Kim -110 over Billy Horschel will work as a secondary option at FanDuel since my model had Horschel as the most mispriced golfer on the slate.
The two made cuts in the last three years for him at this tournament might look fine on the surface, but it came from a player who lost off the tee and approach during all three of those starts. I am under the belief that the heavy rain in the area could hurt his lack of distance and poor proximity data, which generated this fade appeal in one area and quality profile in Fox that loved his distance and long-iron play.
Matt Gannon: Aaron Rai Top 40 +160 (FanDuel)
Rai's first-round tee time: 1:29 p.m. ET
Aaron Rai has started his 2024 PGA Tour season with a T57 and missed cut. That does not look great on paper, but when you dig into the numbers, he is extremely close to success. Over his last five starts on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, Rai has gained a combined 22.3 strokes ball-striking. However, he has given a lot of that back on and around the greens.
At Torrey Pines, this is a formula for success. He showed that he can play here with a T6 finish two seasons ago. Torrey Pines is a great course for Aaron Rai, and he will show that this week.
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2024 Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Tony Finau
- Spencer Aguiar: Ludvig Åberg
- Nick Bretwisch: Xander Schauffele
- Matt Gannon: Patrick Cantlay
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Austin Eckroat
- Aguiar: Akshay Bhatia
- Bretwisch: Davis Thompson
- Gannon: Justin Suh
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Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Hideki Matsuyama
- Aguiar: Justin Rose
- Bretwisch: Justin Rose
- Gannon: Eric Cole
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Taylor Pendrith
- Aguiar: Taylor Pendrith
- Bretwisch: Tony Finau
- Gannon: Adrian Meronk
Trend That Guides Your 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Strategy
Aguiar: Despite the split-course rotation producing 75% of the rounds on the complex and long South Course, the long-term data will shift us heavily toward the North Course when we dive into where golfers need to excel if they want a chance to win the title.
With a winning score of between 13-to-15-under during most iterations of this contest, the past five winners have torn apart the North, with production landing between four-under and nine-under during their one-off opportunity. I am trying to find golfers who have the potential to spike when given that venue on Wednesday or Thursday.
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Gannon: Torrey Pines is the first test these pros will face this 2024 season. The first few events were a real ease into things, but Torrey Pines is the real deal. Golfers who struggle from tee to green, especially off the tee, will be lapped from the get go.
The most important stat to consider this week is Total Driving. This is a calculation that combines not just how long and straight each player is, but how well each drive benefits a player on a given hole. Players who can control their golf ball off the tee will have a real advantage this week. If you are missing fairways at a rapid rate this week, consider yourself toast.
