The head-to-head run continued for us Friday at the Farmers Insurance Open after our full tournament matchup of Ryan Fox -110 over Billy Horschel joined our round one play of S.H. Kim -110 over Tyler Duncan in the winner's circle.
Fox (-1) versus Horschel (+1) was a wager I suggested had a non-zero chance of going missed-cut versus missed-cut because of the volatile nature of both players. We saw that come to fruition after Fox was unable to hold steady during the more difficult South Course. However, the brunt of that return gets shown in spades as to why the head-to-head sector is our best chance to turn a profit. Attacking the most mispriced players on the board will always be more valuable than backing the best-grading golfers when they are matched against equally enticing counterparts.
This isn't a game where you need to be perfect. Beating one player for the day or the event is all you need to do to turn a profit, so with that goal in mind, let's dive into some of the data and see if we can find any potential oppositions as we head into the weekend.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Data
Worst Ball-Striking Rounds Of Those Who Made The Cut
It is hard to understand how Patrick Cantlay has continued to play the South Course so badly throughout his career. The American has averaged negative-0.87 shots approach through six career rounds at the venue, including an average return of negative-1.05 when diving into the totality of his strokes gained in all areas.
Bet365 picked up on that factor by making Cantlay a +105 underdog to Xander Schauffele. If we are to believe the struggles are genuine at the track, there may be some value in Schauffele as a slight favorite if you want to play things a little closer to the vest, although I'd almost rather shoot for the moon on an option like Adam Schenk when I can grab Schenk at +155 on BetRivers.
According to my model, that is a cheap way to invest in an implied probability from the sportsbook of 39.22%, which should be closer to +125 (44.44%). You will be projected to lose that wager 55.56% of the time, but you either land under the mindset that Cantlay's talent goes scorched earth at the track Friday and finally gets it right, or his struggles loom again.
I will go for the latter and seize a pure number-grab on something that is giving me a 5.22% edge since nobody who made the cut has lost more value in my sheet through two days versus their baseline projection than Cantlay. It also shouldn't hurt matters that Schenk was a sharp target for me pre-event who has continued to ascend when running my data to include what we have available through the opening two rounds of golf.
Other Options I Would Consider Fading: Tom Hoge, Shane Lowry
