2024 Farmers Insurance Open
Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Farmers Insurance Open predictions — our expert PGA Tour betting preview.
While it was a Sunday to remember for casual fans with Nick Dunlap becoming the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since 1991, it was a Sunday to forget for my bets.
Justin Thomas, Eric Cole and J.T. Poston all started the final round in the top 10. However, Thomas finished two shots behind Dunlap despite hitting it into the water on two par-5s, Cole had his worst round of the tournament to fall back to T21, and Poston couldn’t capture the same magic that he had the previous two Sundays.
Betting on golf is all about giving yourself chances on Sunday. We have done that the last two weeks but haven’t picked up the win. For the third straight event, we’ve had a golfer who was at least 200-1 before the tournament started emerge victorious. When golfers whom I never considered betting win a tournament, it’s essentially the worst-case scenario. Although, I suppose it feels a little better knowing that I wasn’t close to betting on the ultimate winner.
After three straight longshot winners, I get the feeling one of the betting favorites will take down the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open. Similar to last week, we have a course rotation in play at this event. However, this is not a pro-am format, and there are only two courses in play – Torrey Pines South Course and Torrey Pines North Course.
You would expect golf courses on the same property to share similar characteristics, but these are vastly different courses.
Let’s start with the South Course, which will host three of the four rounds. It hosted the U.S. Open a few years back and is an absolute mammoth of a course. It’s a par-72 that measures 7,765 yards. The fairways are narrow, which means the fairways are tough for everyone to hit. This really gives an edge to those with distance off the tee.
In terms of difficulty, this is routinely one of the 10 most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Driving distance, long iron play, scrambling and putting on Poa Annua go a long way at this course.
The North Course will only host one of the four rounds. It is also a par-72, but it measures only 7,258 yards. It has been one of the 10 easiest courses on Tour in three of the last five years. Golfers will certainly need to shoot a good score on the North Course if they want to put themselves in a good position heading into the weekend.
In addition to being much easier, this course also has Bentgrass greens. We don’t have ShotLink data from the course, so it’s tougher to know the course fit. Regardless, golfers will only play this course once.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$100
- Current bankroll: $758
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Predictions
Jason Day to Win +2500 (FanDuel)
Bet $25 to pay $650
We only have two rounds of ShotLink data from last week’s event, but Day gained both off the tee and on approach. In his first start of the year, he gained strokes in every category. While we shouldn’t put much emphasis on this, Jason Day and Lydia Ko won the Grant Thornton Invitational in December.
In addition to the form, Day has always loved challenging golf courses. He seems to love Torrey Pines as much as anyone outside of Tiger Woods, as he’s won here twice and has seven top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts at this event. He has distance off the tee, he’s good with his long irons, he’s elite around the greens, and he’s gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 12 starts here.
Sahith Theegala to Win +3500 (bet365)
Bet $25 to pay $900
Theegala always seems to play well in California. He picked up his first PGA Tour win at the Fortinet Championship in the fall (Napa Valley) and nearly won again at The Sentry. He tends to play well on courses that don’t require accuracy off the tee. This is certainly one of them, as distance means more than accuracy.
He might be the best in the field around the green and can light it up on the greens. In two starts at this event in his career, he has finished T4 and T25. I love his ties to California, I like the form, and I like the course fit.
Beau Hossler Top 20 +280 (bet365)
Bet $25 to pay $95
The Hoss has been up and down throughout his career but has really improved on his consistency over the last year of play. This is largely thanks to a big leap with his ball-striking. He has gained strokes off the tee in 12 of his last 14 starts and has gained strokes on approach in five of his last eight starts.
He’s always had an excellent short game, so I think this current version of Hossler could be a good fit for Torrey Pines. He doesn’t have a great track record here but did finish in the top 10 in 2020. I like his odds to finish in the top 20 this weekend.
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Taylor Montgomery Top 20 +360 (bet365)
Bet $25 to pay $115
Montgomery was one of the most popular outright bets last week at the American Express. He got off to a hot start but faded a bit on the weekend. If you have one bad round in a birdie-fest like that, you will find yourself way down the leaderboard.
Prior to that, he finished T13 at the Sony Open and T8 at the RSM Classic as he gained over nine strokes on approach in those two events. He’s one of the best putters in the field after ranking second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting last season, and he seems to be trending in a positive direction with his ball-striking. I like the bounce-back spot for him at an event where he’s finished T11 and T31 the last two years.
Let’s get one of our golfers across the finish line this week.
