Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open PrizePicks for Wednesday — our expert first-round plays for this week's PGA Tour event. Be sure to get your picks in early this week with the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open beginning on Wednesday and concluding on Saturday.
With The American Express in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's Farmers Insurance Open in La Jolla, California. This unique event features a two-course rotation, as the golfers split the first two rounds between the North and South Courses at Torrey Pines, while the remainder of the weekend is played solely on the South Course, which is the tougher test.
Below, I give out my 2024 Farmers Insurance Open PrizePicks for Wednesday, when the first round begins at Torrey Pines.
2024 Farmers Insurance Open PrizePicks Wednesday Plays
Max Homa: Less Than 70.5 Strokes
This is arguably one of the chalkiest picks on the board as Max Homa looks to defend his title from last season, but this number is over-adjusted because he plays his first round on the South Course. Yes, that's the harder course, and scores will be higher, but there's still perfect weather on Wednesday, and Homa has obviously proven he can handle what the South Course throws at him.
En route to his win here last season, Homa recorded 70 or fewer strokes in two of his three rounds on the South Course, with a 71 in his other round.
He's had plenty of success here, not only winning in 2023 but finishing T18 in 2021 and T9 in 2020. The California native feels at home here, but there is more to it than just that.
The key metric to focus on this week is Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. Hitting the greens here is a must, given how difficult it is to putt on these Poa Annua greens and escape the thick four-inch rough surrounding them.
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Last year, everyone who finished inside the top six ranked 12th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. Enter Homa, who has gained strokes on approach in each of his past four visits to Torrey Pines and in each of his past eight tournaments.
Over that stretch, Homa boasts six top-10 finishes, including his win on the European Tour's Nedbank Golf Challenge. What is even more incredible is that he has failed to finish lower than T14 across those eight tournaments.
Homa is dialed in, and I expect him to start strong on the South Course this week.
Min Woo Lee: Less Than 4 Birdies
While Homa should fare well on the South Course, I expect it to give more trouble to guys like Min Woo Lee on Wednesday. Lee is a terrific golfer – I am a big fan of his – but this is a beast of a course where experience is key.
He's never played competitively at Torrey Pines, which will present some difficulties as he acclimates to just how difficult the South Course can play if when missing greens in regulation. Speaking of which, Lee has lost strokes on approach in each of his past four tournaments with data, which is a troubling trend before heading to the South Course.
On Tour last season, Lee averaged just 3.59 birdies per round, and most of the venues he played at were easier than what he will face on Thursday. Keep in mind, that figure is pretty substantially lower than the Tour average as Lee is more of a "safe" golfer who attempts to avoid mistakes rather than playing aggressively.
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Keegan Bradley: Less Than 71 Strokes
The last guy to back on the South Course on Thursday is Keegan Bradley, who will actually be in Min Woo Lee's group. Simply put, Bradley has been an absolute stick on this course, and it's worth taking a shot on that to continue in the first round.
He has failed to miss the cut in each of his past six appearances here, gaining strokes on the approach in all six outings. Not only that, but Bradley has finished in the top five in three of those six tournaments.
Bradley shot a 68 or lower in each of the two rounds over the weekend on the South Course last season en route to his second-place finish, so he can handle the terrain. This should not be surprising considering his excellent approach game.
He has not lost strokes on approach in each of his past nine tournaments dating back to last year. Over that stretch, Bradley boasts three top-10 finishes, including his win at last year's Travelers Championship and T2 finish at this season's Sony Open in Hawaii.
